Big 12 Arizona

Head coach Brent Brennan · 3rd season · 19-14 at Arizona

Record6-23-2 Big 12 · T-4th
CFPNo. 22week 10 poll
BowlEligible6 wins reached
Nextvs TCUFri Nov 6 · 10:15 pm ET · ESPN

The rest of the season

Two real tests left: No. 3 Utah 48%, TCU 69%

Win out 23% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins

Arizona's chance to win each game left, from our model: TCU 69%, Utah 48%, Kansas State 79%, Arizona State 86%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Playoff chance went from 7% to 4%, peaking at 14% before a game

7%1%L4%W5%W5%W6%W14%W4%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 4th in the Big 12 · 3-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Noah Fifita 2,464 · Rushing Kedrick Reescano 321 · Receiving Isaiah Mizell 675 All player stats

The nationAP #24 · Coaches #22 · CFP #22down 2 from last week · week 10 poll
The model#15 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #14 (+16.0) · FPI #27
The marketArizona by 9.5Betting line vs TCU · our model 69% Arizona

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Arizona:athletics siteBig 12YouTubeInstagram

Schedule and results

Arizona · 2026 schedule and results6-2Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 54% · 2 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #27 to #15
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#27#152−33.5✗ −5.5Northern ArizonaW 35-7 124Arizona won 35-7 vs Northern Arizona. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.1-00-0Pass Fifita 262 · Rush Reescano 48 · Rec Richardson 96
2Sep 12#28#9+6.5✗ −4.5@BYUL 17-28 118Arizona lost 17-28 at BYU. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 56%.1-10-1Pass Fifita 230 · Rush Reescano 49 · Rec Rusk 48
3Sep 19#27#103−34.5✗ −9.5Northern IllinoisW 42-17 131Arizona won 42-17 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 99%, low 90%, high better than 99%.2-10-1Pass Fifita 325 · Rush Reescano 30 · Rec Spivey 90
4Sep 26#28#49−11.5✗ −1.5@Washington StateW 34-24 145Arizona won 34-24 at Washington State. Chance to win started at 68%, low 28%, high better than 99%.3-10-1Pass Fifita 297 · Rush Mahdi 63 · Rec Spivey 129
5Oct 3#26#95−7✓ +20CincinnatiW 34-7 135Arizona won 34-7 vs Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 72%, low 72%, high better than 99%.4-11-1Pass Fifita 284 · Rush Roberts 87 · Rec Mizell 67
6Oct 10#20#158−3.5✓ +17.5@West VirginiaW 52-31 155Arizona won 52-31 at West Virginia. Chance to win started at 47%, low 40%, high better than 99%.5-12-1Pass Fifita 341 · Rush Roberts 63 · Rec Mizell 183
7Bye week
8Oct 24#20#102−11.5✓ +24.5Iowa StateW 39-3 131Arizona won 39-3 vs Iowa State. Chance to win started at 84%, low 84%, high better than 99%.6-13-1Pass Fifita 308 · Rush Craig 51 · Rec Mizell 134
9Oct 31#15#13+4✗ −4@Texas TechL 26-34 147Arizona lost 26-34 at Texas Tech. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 71%.6-23-2Pass Fifita 417 · Rush Reescano 18 · Rec Mizell 182
10Nov 6#15#42−9.5TCU10:15 pm ET · ESPN69% to win
11Nov 14#15#14Utahtime TBA48% to win
12Nov 21@Kansas Statetime TBA79% to win
13Nov 28−4.5Arizona Statetime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Arizona, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Arizona: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31@Texas TechL 26-34429033:20+0.11633.8%1.48One-score loss
Oct 24Iowa StateW 39-3477034:26+0.28647.4%1.27Best defensive stand
Oct 10@West VirginiaW 52-31482124:10+0.37148.1%1.70Most explosive
Oct 3CincinnatiW 34-7522135:39+0.23348.1%1.17
Sep 26@Washington StateW 34-24447134:02+0.16744.7%1.25
Sep 19Northern IllinoisW 42-17441130:20+0.42352.2%1.45Season-high EPA/play
Sep 12@BYUL 17-28327133:41+0.10641.3%1.15Season-low EPA/play
Sep 5Northern ArizonaW 35-7520332:12+0.21660.8%0.93Best success rate
Season average (8 games)4561.0+0.24047.0%1.30

Arizona's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line8.5 winsover +100
Offense elitePass-first, spreadDefense strong

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 8.5▼0.5 since Oct 17
CFP championship#33 in field+30,000
Big 12 title#5 in market+1,500

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

L 26-34 at Texas Tech

Arizona fans
r/CFB
“Careful we might try to run it up the middle on first down for no gain again”
3d ago
r/CFB
“I’d like to thank Arizona for not giving up on the run despite the .4 ypc”
3d ago
Texas Tech fans on Arizona
r/CFB
“I’d like to thank Arizona for not giving up on the run despite the .4 ypc”
3d ago

W 39-3 vs Iowa State

Arizona fans
r/CFB
“Noah Fifita is a prime testament to the value of a player staying his entire career at the same school. He is the undisputed heart, soul, and leader of this…”
1w ago
r/CFB
“Beating an unranked team as a ranked team in the Big 12 isn't for everyone Great win to celebrate 100 years of Bear Down”
1w ago
Iowa State fans on Arizona
r/CFB
“Closest defensive player to the Arizona wr was in Yuma”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 14AP #3 Utahvs Utah · at home
Sat Nov 28Territorial Cupvs Arizona State · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Arizona has won four of its last five.

7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
All I’m thinking about is let’s pack Casino Del Sol Stadium in two weeks. This team has been playing their tails off. These players love the University of Arizona. They keep choosing the University of Arizona. They keep choosing the city of Tucson and it’s time the city of Tucson to choose them
Brennan · Wildcat Arizona2 days after Arizona's 2026 game against West Virginia

Playoff chance, day by day

4% now · ▼ 10 points in the last week

020%4%High 14%, Oct 28Aug 31Nov 4

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

Who to root for this week

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.

Range of outcomes · Arizona · 2026

Arizona’s most likely regular season is 9-3. 93% of outcomes land from 8-4 to 10-2.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

7 wins 6%; 8 wins 27%; 9 wins 44%; 10 wins 23%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-5A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.
Base10-3A bowl game.
Ceiling11-2A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 54 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2

Game feel54even gamescombined pts / game10th highest-scoring of 16 in the Big 12
Heart rate0-1rarely closein one-score games (1 of 8)16th most one-score games of 16 in the Big 12
Margin+16.0comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 16 in the Big 12
Tempo69average paceoffensive plays / game10th fastest of 16 in the Big 12
Big plays1.30some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)6th most explosive of 16 in the Big 12
Home crowd42,445avg attendance11th biggest crowds of 16 in the Big 12

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Arizona is the desert program that owns one of the great defenses college football ever fielded — the 1990s Desert Swarm — and spent the seasons since trying to feel that feared again, most recently bouncing back from 4-8 to 9-4 in its second Big 12 year.

AP Top 25#24 AP

Wildcat fans say the sport filed Arizona under 'Pac-12 survivor' the day the old league died and never updated the file — they say a 9-4 Big 12 season barely moved the needle, and the desert is…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

Arizona · Game-day weather

Typical at Arizona Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 94, noon Saturdays 74

  • noon: 74, Rough
  • 3:30 pm: 81, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 109 at noon, 109 at 3:30 pm, 111 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Arizona is the Big 12 newcomer whose 1998 12-1 Holiday Bowl + 2024 10-3 + Jedd Fisch + Brent Brennan transition define what modern desert-football looks like.

Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadDefense: Strong
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

The story

Read the Arizona story →
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026 · Wk 8Entered the AP Top 25at No. 25
  • 2025 · Wk 15Climbed to No. 18 in the CFP rankingsWeek 14 · Won 23-7 at Arizona State↑7 · from No. 25
  • 2025 · Wk 15Entered the AP Top 25at No. 22
  • 2025 · Wk 14Entered the CFP rankingsWeek 13 · Won 41-17 at home over Baylorat No. 25

Roster and recruiting

Roster65% of production back, talent #54

Roster reload: Arizona

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production65%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#54 nationally247 composite 699.6
Portal Additions22Primary repair: S
Portal Losses20Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss4NFL Draft departures (4)
Recruiting Reload#42Development class
Sin 4 - Daylen Austin3.90out 3 - Jack Luttrell3.50Upgrade
WRin 3 - Dj Jordan3.60out 3 - Devin Hyatt3.50Even
current room: 182 lbs avg (2025 roster)
TEin 3 - Cole Rusk4.12out 2 - Keyan Burnett3.60Upgrade
current room: 230 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Move TE2025 profilecreates mismatches lined up all over the formation
Third program
CBin 3 - Tyrese Boss3.60out 2 - Marquis Groves-Killebrew3.60Upgrade
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Cover Cornerdoesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play
Transferred in
DLin 0out 3 - Jarra Anderson3.50Starter Risk
current room: 283 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Matai Tagoa'i3.60out 1 - Stacy Bey3.50Upgrade
current room: 225 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Full roster (110 players)
UNKCaleb Smith
CBAiden Miller, Dwight Bootle II, Jay'Vion Cole, Kingston Spivey, Swayde Griffin, Tyrese Boss, Xaier Hiler, Zuri Watson
DBJohno Price
DLChristian Madoski, Dominic Lolesio, Dustin Petras, Ezra Funa, Julian Savaiinaea, Kaisi Lafitaga, Kevin Moorer Jr., Keytrin Harris, Leroy Palu, Manoah Faupusa, Mays Pese, Porter Patton, Prince Williams, Tre Smith, Victory Johnson, Zac Siulepa
LBBrandon Craddock, Carter Jones, Chase Kennedy, Coleman Patmon, Cooper Blomstrom, Dash Fifita, Dominic Hanger, Everett Roussaw Jr., Jabari Mann, Jacob Buggie, Jaden Parker, Leviticus Su'a, Max Harris, Myron Robinson, Nela Taliauli, Taye Brown
LSBraxton Hart, Drew Nicolson
OLAlexander Doost, Grayson Stovall, Isaac Perez, Jake Griffin, Javian Goo, Jaxon Griffin, Justin Morales, Keona Peat, Khalil Sanogo, Louis Akpa, Malachi Joyner, Matthew Lado, Nate Hale, Rhino Tapa'atoutai, Soione Tohi, Tristan Bounds, Zachary Henning
PCarter Schwartz, Chase Ridley, Ian French
PKMichael Salgado-Medina
QBLuke Haugo, Mason Bray, Noah Fifita, Oscar Rios, Sawyer Anderson
RBAnthony Wilhite, Antwan Roberts, Cornelius Warren, Ismail Mahdi, Kedrick Reescano, Lohgan Bottjer, Quincy Craig
SCam Chapa, Dajon Hinton, Daylen Austin, Gavin Hunter, Hannibal Navies II, Harold Lusk II, James Pike, Kason Brown, Lee Molette III, Malcolm Hartzog, Matai Tagoa'i, Quinn Olson
TEArthur Ban, Cole Rusk, Henry Gabalis, Kellan Ford, Lachlan Teissier, Shane King, Tyler Mustain, Tyler Powell
WRBrandon Phelps, Chris Hunter, Gio Richardson, Isaiah Mizell, Jordan McCord III, Jordan Ross, Landon Kelsey, R.J. Mosley, Rodney Gallagher, Scotty Brennan, Tre Spivey, Wesley Yarbrough, Xavier Jordan
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
Caden Jones
QB · Irvine, CA
#629 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] SMU Defeats Arizona 24-19
715 upvotes · Jan 2026
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Arizona 28-17
223 upvotes · Sep 2026
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Arizona 28-17
223 upvotes · Sep 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 87% of FBS programs
↑

Fan confidence higher than any point since 2025

87th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market≈
87th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
8.5
Sportsbook win total
(79th among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 1 book
Where voters differAP voters range from #18 to #25 (week 9)
Voter spread

49 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #18, Spencer Ripchik (The Dominion Post), to #25, Lee K. Howard (WKYT-TV). 21 voters left them off the ballot entirely.

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.

RivalsRival pulse: Arizona State hopeful

Rival pulse

Arizona State
Hopeful
+19
Territorial Cup
Face-off →

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Arizona

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site