deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Chris Hunter is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Arizona
1-1Latest
Big 12 · Brent Brennan, year 3 (14-13) · Arizona Stadium · 50,782 · 40,129 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#27 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #24 (+12.6) · FPI #43
The marketArizona by 34.5vs Northern Illinois · our model 89% Arizona · a number, not a pick
LastL 17–28 at BYU · Sat Sep 12 · Noah Fifita 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Nextvs Northern Illinois · Sat Sep 19 · 10:30 pm ET · Arizona Stadium · Arizona by 34.5 · first meeting on record · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Arizona · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #27 | #152 | -33.5✗ | Northern Arizona | W 35–7 124 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #28 | #9 | +6.5✗ | @BYU | L 17–28 118 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| 3 | Sep 20 | #27 | #104 | -34.5 | Northern Illinois | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #27 | #43 | @Washington State | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Cincinnati | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @West Virginia | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Iowa State | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Texas Tech | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | TCU | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Utah | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Kansas State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Arizona State |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @BYU | L 17–28 | 327 | 1 | 33:41 | +0.187 | 41.3% | 115.0% | |
| Sep 6 | Northern Arizona | W 35–7 | 520 | 3 | 32:12 | +0.216 | 60.8% | 93.3% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 424 | 2.0 | +0.201 | 51.0% | 104.2% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Arizona is the desert program that owns one of the great defenses college football ever fielded — the 1990s Desert Swarm — and spent the seasons since trying to feel that feared again, most recently bouncing back from 4-8 to 9-4 in its second Big 12 year.
Title DroughtSince 1998 · 28 yrs
Wildcat fans say the sport filed Arizona under 'Pac-12 survivor' the day the old league died and never updated the file — they say a 9-4 Big 12 season barely moved the needle, and the desert is tired…
moderate signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Arizona fans
BYU fans on Arizona
Arizona fans
r/CFB
▲ 180 · 1w ago
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 9-4 · last season
Game feel51even gamescombined pts / game11th highest-scoring of 16 in the Big 12
Heart rate3-3some dramain one-score games (6 of 13)6th most one-score games of 16 in the Big 12
Margin+12.2comfortableavg scoring margin4th best margin of 16 in the Big 12
Tempo69average paceoffensive plays / game7th fastest of 16 in the Big 12
Big plays1.29some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)7th most explosive of 16 in the Big 12
Home crowd41,782avg attendance12th biggest crowds of 16 in the Big 12
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Arizona has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The University of Arizona should have every advantage in the world against them [NAU] and that means nothing comes Saturday
The forecast
Next Sep 20
vs Northern Illinois · at home
Season line7.5 winsover -105
SolidElite
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total2 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#33 in field+25000
Big 12 title#9 in market+2700
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Arizona · the story right now
6 storylines developing
What Arizona's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
closer2025 cycle~attributednew
Kedrick Reescano: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
governance shockthis cycle~readnew
Brent Brennan's third season opens with a 9-4 record and a #21 AP finish, but unease lingers as Arizona navigates its Big 12 debut and the shadow of Jedd Fisch's legacy.
what happenedArizona: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Arizona leaped 54 spots in SP+ — the 2024 10-3 record and Jedd Fisch’s legacy anchor a program that hasn’t been this high since its 1998 Holiday Bowl peak, now.
what happenedArizona enters 2026 rated No. 28 in 2025 SP+ (+12.0), up 54 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Arizona leaped 54 spots in SP+ — Brennan's second season answers whether desert-football can sustain Fisch's 9-4 foundation and a 10-3 jump as the program climbs.
what happenedArizona enters 2025 rated No. 28 in SP+ (+12.0), up 54 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
portal2025-05-05~readnew
Brent Brennan's second consecutive top-30 portal class — including Braedyn Locke (QB) — continues Arizona's modern desert-football identity, built on resilience and strategic talent acquisition.
what happenedArizona signed a top-26 transfer-portal class — 30 additions headlined by Braedyn Locke (QB) from Wisconsin and Michael Dansby (CB) from San José State. ✓ fact
the contextsecond consecutive top-30 portal class
our readdeveloping
How past storylines here turned out
Died downArizona's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downArizona's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
AnsweredArizona's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Outcome band · Arizona · 2026
Outcome band · Arizona · 2026Arizona's most likely season is 9-4 — a bowl game. The floor is 6-7; the ceiling is 11-2.
Floor 6-7Ceiling 11-2Base 9-4
0 wins13 wins
Floor6-7A bowl game, 3 fewer wins.
Base9-4A bowl game.
Ceiling11-2A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Arizona · Season outlook Confidence
One of the biggest jumps in the country. Arizona has to prove the model right.
Arizona enters 2026 rated No. 28 in 2025 SP+ (+12.0), up 54 spots from 2024. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers10 bull takes
💬 fans: 9% volume · mostly neutral
Developing1 new this week
5 days agoNCAA denies Godfrey eligibility waiver — Reported
last weekArizona players sue NCAA — Reported
2 weeks agoUnofficial depth chart released — Reported
Mar 3EDGE Victory Johnson transfer commits from Cal Poly — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Arizona leaped 54 spots in SP+ — the 2024 10-3 record and Jedd Fisch’s legacy anchor a program that hasn’t been this high since its 1998 Holiday Bowl peak, now.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a major jump in the model is the expectations tax: a season that would have read as a breakthrough last year now reads as meeting the floor. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Arizona enters 2026 rated No. 28 in 2025 SP+ (+12.0), up 54 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers10 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Arizona loses sixth straight game to BYU, still without win at Provo, Utah, since 1973”
ALLSPORTSTUCSON.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Lessons learned from BYU football's excellent win over Arizona”
Lawless Republic · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“BYU football's defense comes up BIG in win over Arizona”
KSL Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“‘Don’t panic’: Kelly Poppinga silences doubts as BYU’s defense d” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“‘Don’t panic’: Kelly Poppinga silences doubts as BYU’s defense delivers a second-half masterclass against Arizona”
The Salt Lake Tribune · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
💬The boards9% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (74%).›
This event was in 71 of 790 board posts (9%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"GG BYU. My fellow Arizona fans are way overreacting to this loss. We did a lot of good things on the road against a very good team and then just fell flat in the end, unfortunately"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"DRF'S INCREDIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE PAYING OFF AND ALL THE STOPS TO SUPPORT BRENNAN AND RETAIN FIFITA ARE PAYING OFF AND AT THIS MOMENT WE LEAD BYU BEAR DOWN ARIZONA"
r/ArizonaWildcats ~ fan take
Board health this week (271 posts): 23% positive · 43% neutral · 34% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Arizona · Developing Confidence
Arizona: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season.
Arizona: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers10 bull takes
💬 fans: 9% volume · mostly neutral
Developing1 new this week
5 days agoNCAA denies Godfrey eligibility waiver — Reported
last weekArizona players sue NCAA — Reported
2 weeks agoUnofficial depth chart released — Reported
Mar 3EDGE Victory Johnson transfer commits from Cal Poly — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Brent Brennan's third season opens with a 9-4 record and a #21 AP finish, but unease lingers as Arizona navigates its Big 12 debut and the shadow of Jedd Fisch's legacy.
Source of record: Arizona: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers10 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Arizona loses sixth straight game to BYU, still without win at Provo, Utah, since 1973”
ALLSPORTSTUCSON.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Lessons learned from BYU football's excellent win over Arizona”
Lawless Republic · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“BYU football's defense comes up BIG in win over Arizona”
KSL Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“‘Don’t panic’: Kelly Poppinga silences doubts as BYU’s defense d” — the real counter.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
“‘Don’t panic’: Kelly Poppinga silences doubts as BYU’s defense delivers a second-half masterclass against Arizona”
The Salt Lake Tribune · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
💬The boards9% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (74%).›
This event was in 71 of 790 board posts (9%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"GG BYU. My fellow Arizona fans are way overreacting to this loss. We did a lot of good things on the road against a very good team and then just fell flat in the end, unfortunately"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"DRF'S INCREDIBLE INVESTMENTS ARE PAYING OFF AND ALL THE STOPS TO SUPPORT BRENNAN AND RETAIN FIFITA ARE PAYING OFF AND AT THIS MOMENT WE LEAD BYU BEAR DOWN ARIZONA"
r/ArizonaWildcats ~ fan take
Board health this week (271 posts): 23% positive · 43% neutral · 34% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Rival pulse
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Arizona is the Big 12 newcomer whose 1998 12-1 Holiday Bowl + 2024 10-3 + Jedd Fisch + Brent Brennan transition define what modern desert-football looks like.
Offense: SolidDefense: Elite
Open questions
The story
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 15Climbed to No. 18 in the CFP rankingsWeek 14 · Won 23-7 at Arizona State
- 2025 · Wk 15Entered the AP Top 25
- 2025 · Wk 14Entered the CFP rankingsWeek 13 · Won 41-17 at home over Baylor
Roster
Roster Reload - Arizona
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production65%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#54 nationally247 composite 699.6
Portal Additions22Primary repair: S
Portal Losses20Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss4NFL Draft departures (4)
Recruiting Reload#42Development class
TEin 3 - Cole Ruskout 2 - Keyan BurnettUpgrade
current room: 230 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Move TE2025 profilecreates mismatches lined up all over the formation
Third program
CBin 3 - Tyrese Bossout 2 - Marquis Groves-KillebrewUpgrade
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Cover Corner2025 profiledoesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play
Full roster (110 players)
UNKCaleb Smith
CBAiden Miller, Dwight Bootle II, Jay'Vion Cole, Kingston Spivey, Swayde Griffin, Tyrese Boss, Xaier Hiler, Zuri Watson
DLChristian Madoski, Dominic Lolesio, Dustin Petras, Ezra Funa, Julian Savaiinaea, Kaisi Lafitaga, Kevin Moorer Jr., Keytrin Harris, Leroy Palu, Manoah Faupusa, Mays Pese, Porter Patton, Prince Williams, Tre Smith, Victory Johnson, Zac Siulepa
LBBrandon Craddock, Carter Jones, Chase Kennedy, Coleman Patmon, Cooper Blomstrom, Dash Fifita, Dominic Hanger, Everett Roussaw Jr., Jabari Mann, Jacob Buggie, Jaden Parker, Leviticus Su'a, Max Harris, Myron Robinson, Nela Taliauli, Taye Brown
OLAlexander Doost, Grayson Stovall, Isaac Perez, Jake Griffin, Javian Goo, Jaxon Griffin, Justin Morales, Keona Peat, Khalil Sanogo, Louis Akpa, Malachi Joyner, Matthew Lado, Nate Hale, Rhino Tapa'atoutai, Soione Tohi, Tristan Bounds, Zachary Henning
RBAnthony Wilhite, Antwan Roberts, Cornelius Warren, Ismail Mahdi, Kedrick Reescano, Lohgan Bottjer, Quincy Craig
SCam Chapa, Dajon Hinton, Daylen Austin, Gavin Hunter, Hannibal Navies II, Harold Lusk II, James Pike, Kason Brown, Lee Molette III, Malcolm Hartzog, Matai Tagoa'i, Quinn Olson
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Arizona
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
NCAA denies Godfrey eligibility waiver
Brennan already burned two waiver wins getting Harris and Mahdi cleared — Godfrey's denial is the NCAA collecting on the third ask, and Arizona's DL depth problem just got harder to paper over.
- News
Arizona players sue NCAA
Wildcats with four draft departures and a #42 class trying to rebuild — suing the NCAA mid-rebuild is either a distraction or the boldest bet Brent Brennan's program makes all year.
- News
Unofficial depth chart released
Four draft departures and a #42 class behind them — Brennan's unofficial depth chart is the first real look at whether the DL pressure problem has an answer yet.
- Portal
EDGE Victory Johnson transfer commits from Cal Poly
Brent Brennan keeps importing the West Coast FCS evaluation — Johnson's tape is starter-grade.
- News
Harris, Mahdi cleared to play
Clearance timing matters — Brennan's roster is already absorbing four draft departures, and getting Harris and Mahdi on the field at No. 15 BYU isn't depth management, it's damage control for a Big 12 opener that sets the tone.
- Recruiting
CB Whitehead commits to Arizona
Brennan's plugging the secondary piece by piece — four starters drafted out of Tucson means the CB room still had real miles to cover before fall camp closes.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-3.5 net portal points
(raw ledger: +11.9 — unweighted, no position adjustment)DL-10.4
starter risk
S+6.8
TE+4.0
RB+3.7
low confidence
LB+3.6
CB+3.5
QB-3.5
low confidence
IOL-3.5
EDGE+3.4
OT+3.4
K-2.0
low confidence
WR+1.9
P+1.0
low confidence
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
R.J. Mosley
#144 national
Projects: Deep Threat — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Deep Threat archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Malachi Joyner
#223 national
★★★★☆
Justin Morales
#275 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
20
CA · 5TX · 5AZ · 4AL · 1AS · 1GA · 1NV · 1UT · 1+1 more
CA leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
96 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Arizona player grew up 621 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
16th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%363–896 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi13%14 of 105 players
Farthest2,978 miJavian Goo · Kapolei, HI
Closest2 miTyler Mustain · Tucson, AZ
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Arizona Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 105 of 110 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] SMU Defeats Arizona 24-19
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Arizona 33-27 (2OT)
[Game Thread] Holiday Bowl: SMU vs. Arizona (8:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Belief history
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
64th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market≈
64th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(62nd among FBS)
(62nd among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 2 books
Pollster gap
Voter spread
2 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #22, Koki Riley (The (Baton Rouge) Advocate), to #25, Eric Hansen (The South Bend Tribune). 66 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.
Penalties
Penalty battle
The penalty battle is a wash: 11 penalties committed vs. 12 drawn on opponents.
85 penalty yards committed vs. 91 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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