CFB Zeitgeist Score
75
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 91st percentile.
Ismail Mahdi
Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22
Ismail Mahdi is a cornerstone for Arizona — measured against the line he joined.
853RUSH YDS4RUSH TD133CARRIES
PRODUCES ABOVE PERCEPTION · PCTL GAP
+68
perception vs production percentile · 2025
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
2026 Outlook
Returning to Arizona for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Arizona
Returning around him
- 56% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 4 Arizona players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +2 net (22 in / 20 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Arizona · Last season: 9-4 (AP #21) · Talent rank #67 · 2026 recruiting class #50
RB · ARIZONA · BIG 12
Ismail Mahdi
- 4
- #21
- 5-9 | 188 lb
- Murphy, TX
Heisman Heat
#3272
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
2 seasons on the ladder
★
2023
Texas State · RB
R11 · National watch / fringe AA
Recognized
2025
Arizona · RB
—
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2023–2025-36%
Sharp dropoff (-36%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (853).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Ismail Mahdi
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Ismail Mahdi
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 13g
853Rush yards
133Carries
4Rush TDs
Per game
65.6Rush yards
10Carries
0Rush TDs
Final
853Rush yards
133Carries
4Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 853.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Ismail Mahdi already has 4 loaded recognition items, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Efficient runner | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
133 88th
YDS
853 92nd
YPC
6.4 88th
TD
4 79th
Receiving
REC
17 80th
YDS
119 76th
YPR
7.0 51st
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 40-6vs Hawai'i | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 | 17 | |
| Wk 2 | W 48-3vs Weber State | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 0 | 18 | |
| Wk 3 | W 23-17vs Kansas State | 22 | 189 | 8.6 | 0 | 60 | Season-high 189 yds |
| Wk 5 | L 14-39@ Iowa State | 13 | 85 | 6.5 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 6 | W 41-13vs Oklahoma State | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 7 | L 27-33vs BYU | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 8 | L 28-31@ Houston | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 10 | W 52-17@ Colorado | 3 | 85 | 28.3 | 1 | 68 | |
| Wk 11 | W 24-20vs Kansas | 7 | 61 | 8.7 | 0 | 38 | |
| Wk 12 | W 30-24@ Cincinnati | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 1 | 27 | |
| Wk 13 | W 41-17vs Baylor | 14 | 93 | 6.6 | 1 | 28 | |
| Wk 14 | W 23-7@ Arizona State | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 | 14 | |
| Bowl | L 19-24@ SMU | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 0 | 19 | |
| Total | 133 | 853 | 7.5 | 4 | 68 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Texas State8-5HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-leaning
2025Arizona9-4HC: Brent Brennan · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Arizona | 133 | 853 | 6.4 | 4 | -- |
| 2023 | Texas State | 223 | 1,331 | 6.0 | 10 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 356 | 2,184 | 6.1 | 14 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Arizona | 17 | 119 | 7.0 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | Texas State | 20 | 275 | 13.8 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 37 | 394 | 10.6 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 853 | #62/735 | 92nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 4 | #154/739 | 79th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 6.4 | #86/735 | 88th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 17 | #111/552 | 80th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 119 | #132/548 | 76th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.25 | #23/362 | 94th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 125 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 16.6% | #137/738 | 82nd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 133 | #89/739 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 68 | #68/733 | 91st pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 27 | #142/540 | 74th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 7.0 | #267/548 | 51st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 82 | #70/200 | 66th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 20.5 | #72/199 | 64th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 4 | #69/206 | 67th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 30.8% | #115/738 | 85th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 20.5% | #130/738 | 83rd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 19.2% | #144/738 | 81st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 18.3% | #123/738 | 83rd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 10.7% | #176/738 | 76th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 8.0% | #286/738 | 61st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.9% | #237/738 | 68th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/256 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 67.4 | 5.5 | 0.3 |
| Road6g | 63.5 | 9.8 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 70.8 | 8.3 | 0.4 |
| Losses4g | 54.0 | 5.7 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 67.3 | 5.2 | 0.1 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 63.7 | 10.2 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
75Solid starter
Elite: yards / carry (90th). Strength: fumbles lost (86th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.25Elite (≥p90) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Ismail MahdiArizonaJevon JacksonUAB· 88% simCarson HansenIowa State· 84% simAlex TeczaNavy· 84% sim
Yards / carry
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Long run
Carries
Receptions
Rec yards
Rush TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Speed Merchant
Cuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jamal Haynes’s 2023 season.
Jamal Haynes
89%match
All-ACC
#2
Kelley Joiner Jr.
82%
#3
Javaughn Williams
70%
#4
Jai'Den Thomas
All-Mountain West
68%
#5
Raleek Brown
All-Big 12
68%
Matches Jamal on
Yards / carry
Yards / reception
Height
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Devon Achane's junior season at Texas A&M (2022).
Devon Achane
74%match
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 21
#2
Ja'Quez Cross
All-Sun Belt
73%
#3
Jayden Brown
68%
#4
Jermaine Brown Jr.
72%
#5
Henry Parrish Jr.
All-ACC
72%
Matches Devon on
Yards / carry
Rush TD rate
Yards / reception
Differs from Devon on
Class year (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Brent Brennan
Pass share
49.7%
447 pass / 452 run
Plays / game
69.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.9%
340 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Jedd Fisch
Arizona
2025era →
Brent Brennan
Arizona
Coaching transition mid-career: Jedd Fisch → Brent Brennan. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMurphy, TX
Height5'9"
Weight188 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey21
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamArizona
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🥇
ALL-AMERICA
Named All-American (2023)
1 selectors honored him
🥈
ALL-CONFERENCE · 1ST TEAM
All-Conf 1st team (2024)
All-Sun Belt
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 All-America selection
National selector recognition is one of the strongest non-Heisman signals on a player card and should sit near the top of the showcase.
3 all-conference honors
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | All-Sun Belt | all_conference | Texas State | Sun Belt | AP |
| 2024 | All-Sun Belt | all_conference | Texas State | Sun Belt | RB |
| 2023 | All-Sun Belt | all_conference | Texas State | Sun Belt | AP |
| 2023 | All-America (CBS) | all_america | Texas State | CBS | first | AP-RET |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Texas State | RB4 | #3272 | #3333 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2023 | Texas State | RB4 | #398 | #546 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Sun Belt |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Arizona | Big 12 | RB | 4 | No. 21 | 5-9 | 188 lb | Murphy, TX |
| 2024 | Texas State | Sun Belt | RB | 4 | No. 21 | 5-9 | 188 lb | Murphy, TX |
| 2023 | Texas State | Sun Belt | RB | 4 | No. 21 | 5-9 | 188 lb | Murphy, TX |