#21

Ismail Mahdi

5th-year running back for Arizona. 2025: 853 rushing yards, 4 rushing TD, 17 catches.

RB · Arizona · 5th-year · #21

5′9″ · 185 lb · Murphy, TX · Plano East HS

CFB Index 65 · #50 of 326 RBsHigh confidenceReturning to Arizona for 2026

via arizonawildcats.com ↗

Next upSat Sep 19 · 10:30 pm ETvs Northern IllinoisArizona StadiumArizona by 34.5

How he plays

Hits the crease and outruns the angle.

Yards / carry: 94th percentile.

The full scouting read

The numbers

853

rushing yards · 2025

4 TD · 6.4 per carry · 17 catches

Backed by 22 car · 189 yds -- top 1% rushing yards game. -- Best game: 189 rush yds, 32 rec yds, vs Kansas State

The play that turned itSwung Louisiana from 12% to 79% to win.Texas State at Louisiana · 34-30

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 running back for Arizona. 2025: 853 rushing yards, 4 rushing TD, 17 catches.

Signed with Houston Christian in 2022.
Transferred from Texas State to Arizona in 2025.
Named All-America (CBS) in 2023.
Mahdi, Harris gain eligibility via court ruling (Sep 12) Reported

His career, year by year

Ismail Mahdi

RB · Arizona · Sr · #21

Hits the crease and outruns the angle. Two head coaches in three seasons, at two different programs. He has been named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week three seasons running, most recently in 2025. The receipt: 189 rush yds, 32 rec yds against Kansas State — Week 3, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
recognition record
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2023Texas State8-5HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-leaning

2024Texas State8-5HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-leaning

2025Arizona9-4HC: Brent Brennan · Balanced

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

65Quality starter #50 of 326?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: yards / carry (94th percentile). Strength: explosive rate (94th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Yards / carry#29 / 456 · 94th pct

6.8

Explosive rate#29 / 456 · 94th pct

11.5%

EPA / carry#110 / 456 · 76th pct

0.23

Success rate#189 / 456 · 58th pct

45.4%

TD rate#259 / 456 · 43rd pct

2.3%

Box-score rates (8)

Yards / carry#31 / 349 · 91st pct

6.4

Fumbles lost#1 / 201 · 87th pct

Rush yards#62 / 349 · 82nd pct

853

Long run#63 / 349 · 82nd pct

Carries#89 / 349 · 75th pct

133

Receptions#103 / 338 · 67th pct

Rec yards#123 / 338 · 63rd pct

119

Rush TDs#153 / 349 · 50th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / carry

36th → 76th percentile

Success rate

58th → 58th percentile

Explosive rate

59th → 94th percentile

Yards / carry

63rd → 94th percentile

TD rate

20th → 43rd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Situational

Situational · Carry shape (PBP, full season)

Yardage DNA

130 carries

17%

Stuffed (≤0)

28%

Grind (1–3)

32%

Chunk (4–9)

23%

Explosive (10+)

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home7g	67.4	5.5	0.3
Road6g	63.5	9.8	0.3

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-77g	67.3	5.2	0.1
Weeks 8+6g	63.7	10.2	0.5

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Brent Brennan

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Starter

A locked-in starting job.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

65 · #50 of 326 RBs

Unranked recruit. Now #50 at the position.

2026 outlook

In the mix for All-Big 12

Based on 2025: #6 of 35 Big 12 RBs

How the All-Big 12 estimate is computed

35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Arizona	133	853	6.4	4	--
2024	Texas State	183	991	5.4	4	--
2023	Texas State	223	1,331	6.0	10	--
Career		539	3,175	5.9	18	--

Season	Team
2025	Arizona	17	119	7.0	1	--
2024	Texas State	24	195	8.1	2	--
2023	Texas State	20	275	13.8	1	--
Career		61	589	9.7	4	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2025

W 23–17

vs Kansas State

189 rush yds (22 car)

A wire-to-wire battle — won by 6 at home.

With N. Fifita — 178 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT · QBR 55.4 · 48 rush yds (15 car) · 2 TD · M. Salgado-Medina — 41 LONG · 50 PCT · 11 PTS

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 3 · Kansas State · 3&15 · Q4 · EPA +3.99Noah Fifita pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 27 yds to the KSU 30 for a 1ST down
Week 10 · Colorado · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.88(10:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 68 yards gain to the COLO07 (#23 C.Stoutmire), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Week 3 · Kansas State · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +3.52Ismail Mahdi run for 60 yds to the KSU 15 for a 1ST down
Week 12 · Cincinnati · 2&11 · Q1 · EPA +3.31Ismail Mahdi 27 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
Week 3 · Kansas State · 2&7 · Q3 · EPA +3.28Ismail Mahdi run for 34 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST down
Week 11 · Kansas · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.01(13:27) Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 38 yards gain to the KAN47 (#2 L.Rawls), 1ST DOWN
Week 13 · Baylor · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA +2.76(10:31) Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 28 yards gain to the BAY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:31, 1ST DOWN #19 M.Salgado-Medina kick attempt good (H: #31 I.Wagner, LS: #41 A.Salerno)
Week 1 · Hawai'i · 3&5 · Q4 · EPA +2.76Ismail Mahdi run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Week 13 · Baylor · 3&2 · Q1 · EPA +2.20(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 I.Mahdi rush middle for 14 yards gain to the ARIZ47 (#3 D.Bobby; #11 K.Thomas), 1ST DOWN
Week 10 · Colorado · 1&7 · Q3 · EPA +2.20Ismail Mahdi 7 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 40-6vs Hawai'i	6	23	3.8	1	17
Wk 2	W 48-3vs Weber State	9	51	5.7	0	18
Wk 3	W 23-17vs Kansas State	22	189	8.6	0	60	Season-high 189 yds
Wk 5	L 14-39@ Iowa State	13	85	6.5	0	23
Wk 6	W 41-13vs Oklahoma State	14	34	2.4	0	13
Wk 7	L 27-33vs BYU	7	21	3.0	0	8
Wk 8	L 28-31@ Houston	6	42	7.0	0	15
Wk 10	W 52-17@ Colorado	3	85	28.3	1	68
Wk 11	W 24-20vs Kansas	7	61	8.7	0	38
Wk 12	W 30-24@ Cincinnati	7	48	6.9	1	27
Wk 13	W 41-17vs Baylor	14	93	6.6	1	28
Wk 14	W 23-7@ Arizona State	14	53	3.8	0	14
Bowl	L 19-24@ SMU	11	68	6.2	0	19
Total		133	853	7.5	4	68

How he plays

Play style

Cuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line.

CFB Index positional classification

Closer · Q4-with-lead carry share

Not actually a closer

checked · no story

30.8%Carry share

19.1%Q4-lead share

77.8%In competitive games

30.8% of carries overall (130/422) → 19.1% of Q4-with-lead carries (18/94) — 77.8% of those in competitive (≤16-pt) games.

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

2/18Inside-5 share

2 of the team's 18 inside-the-5 carries (11.1%).

2026 Outlook

Arizona

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Running back · Arizona

Returning around him

65% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
4 Arizona players drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: +2 net (22 in / 20 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Arizona · Last season: 9-4 (AP #21) · Talent rank #54 · 2026 recruiting class #42

DNA match

Player DNA

Speed Merchant

Cuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jamal Haynes’s 2023 season.

Jamal Haynes

90%match

Georgia Tech · 2023

All-ACC

Kelley Joiner Jr.

South Florida · 2021

79%

Jai'Den Thomas

UNLV · 2024

All-Mountain West

70%

Xavier Williams

Kent State · 2021

69%

Brashard Smith

SMU · 2024

All-ACCNFL Rd 7

68%

Matches Jamal on

EPA / carry (adj)

Yards / reception

Height

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Devon Achane's junior season at Texas A&M (2022).

Devon Achane

74%match

Texas A&M · 2022

NFL Rd 3 · Pk 21

Ja'Quez Cross

Arkansas State · 2023

All-Sun Belt

73%

Henry Parrish Jr.

Miami · 2022

All-ACC

72%

Jermaine Brown Jr.

UAB · 2022

72%

Jawhar Jordan

Louisville · 2022

All-ACCNFL Rd 6

71%

Matches Devon on

Yards / carry

Rush TD rate

Yards / reception

Differs from Devon on

Class year (higher)

Player DNA

Players who play like Ismail Mahdi

Freddie Brock

Georgia State · 2024

73%

Jawhar Jordan

Louisville · 2023

67%

Raleek Brown

Arizona State · 2025

67%

Jordan Houston

Marshall · 2024

65%

Evan Pryor

Cincinnati · 2025

64%

Background

Purchase Jersey Headlines Ismail Mahdi, Max Harris return to Arizona football for final season (Arizona Daily Star) Bear Down BBQ: Arizona RB Ismail Mahdi becomes co-owner of Dickey’s Barbecue Pit in Tucson (Arizona Daily Star) Honors and Awards 2025: CSC Academic All-District 2025: All-Big 12 Ho...

via arizonawildcats.com ↗

The backfield · Arizona

#21Ismail MahdiRB · 5th853 rushing yards · 2025
#44Antwan RobertsRB · 5th512 rushing yards · 2025
#3Kedrick ReescanoRB · Sr.396 rushing yards · 2025
#24Quincy CraigRB · 5th364 rushing yards · 2025
Wesley YarbroughRB · So.77 rushing yards · 2025

3 more on the roster · Arizona team page

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Ismail Mahdi

2022

202313 games

202412 games

202513 games

2025 snapshot

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

Starter

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Speed Merchant

Players who play like Ismail Mahdi

Background

The backfield · Arizona