coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
Texas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
our readfront page
Texas State
0-2Latest
Pac-12 · G.J. Kinne, year 4 (23-18) · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 30,000 · 22,019 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#32 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #101 (-7.8) · FPI #102
The marketTexas State by 3vs North Texas · our model 81% Texas State · a number, not a pick
LastL 26–31 vs UTSA · Sat Sep 12 · Torrance Burgess Jr. 149 rush yds, 6 rec yds
Nextvs North Texas · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · Texas State by 3 · series 1-0 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Texas State · 2026 schedule & results0-2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #34 | #5 | +29.5✗ | @Texas | L 7–59 140 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #30 | #17 | -1.5✗ | UTSA | L 26–31 154 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #32 | #121 | -3 | North Texas | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #32 | #143 | Incarnate Word | ||||
| 5 | Oct 4 | @San Diego State | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 16 | Colorado State | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Utah State | ||||||
| 9 | Nov 1 | @Boise State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 8 | @Oregon State | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Fresno State | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Washington State |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | UTSA | L 26–31 | 481 | 3 | 31:40 | +0.190 | 47.5% | 101.6% | |
| Sep 5 | @Texas | L 7–59 | 349 | 3 | 30:26 | +0.139 | 41.1% | 112.7% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 415 | 3.0 | +0.165 | 44.3% | 107.2% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Texas State was the most recent program to climb to FBS and spent a decade as a Sun Belt afterthought — then GJ Kinne won three straight bowl games and the revamped Pac-12 handed San Marcos a Power seat, turning the doormat into a conference flagship almost overnight.
Title DroughtSince 2012 · 14 yrs
Fans have heard it for a decade — that Texas State is the newcomer that doesn't matter, the FBS arrival nobody respects. Getting the Pac-12 nod over older, bigger programs is the answer they wanted, a…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Texas State fans
UTSA fans on Texas State
Texas State fans
Texas fans on Texas State
r/LonghornNation
▲ 158 · 1w ago
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 7-6 · last season
Game feel65shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 14 in the Sun Belt
Heart rate1-4some dramain one-score games (5 of 13)7th most one-score games of 14 in the Sun Belt
Margin+7.5comfortableavg scoring margin3rd best margin of 14 in the Sun Belt
Tempo71uptempooffensive plays / game3rd fastest of 14 in the Sun Belt
Big plays1.36highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)2nd most explosive of 14 in the Sun Belt
Home crowd21,260avg attendance7th biggest crowds of 14 in the Sun Belt
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Texas State has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Streak L2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 4-6
We took six times the amount of bets on Michigan moneyline compared with Western Michigan
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs North Texas · at home
EliteRun-heavy, ground-controlSoft
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#70 in field+100000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Texas State · the story right now
4 storylines developing
What Texas State's coordinator hires is really about
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
G.J. Kinne enters his fourth season with a 7-6 record and a reshaped unit, balancing the momentum of an 8-5 2023 season with the challenge of sustaining it in the Pac-12.
what happenedTexas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
portal2025-07-27~readnew
With Shaker Reisig arriving at QB and Donterry Russell (EDGE) headlining Texas State's top-9 portal class, G.J. Kinne adds depth to a 7-6 roster already returning 100% of its passing game.
what happenedTexas State signed a top-27 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Nate Yarnell (QB) from Pittsburgh and Holden Geriner (QB) from Auburn. ✓ fact
the contextthe No. 1 portal class in the Pac-12 this cycle
our readdeveloping
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Texas State dropped 17 spots in SP+ — the 7-6 record and top-quintile returning production contrast with the 65th ranking, highlighting the tension between performance and projection under G.J. Kinne.
what happenedTexas State enters 2026 rated No. 65 in 2025 SP+ (+2.3), down 17 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downTexas State's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downTexas State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Texas State · 2026
Outcome band · Texas State · 2026Texas State's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.
Floor 5-7Ceiling 10-3Base 8-5
0 wins13 wins
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Texas State · Developing Confidence
Texas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Texas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers5 bull takes
💬 fans: 11% volume · negative overall
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
G.J. Kinne enters his fourth season with a 7-6 record and a reshaped unit, balancing the momentum of an 8-5 2023 season with the challenge of sustaining it in the Pac-12.
Source of record: Texas State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“North Texas annihilates UNLV, 44-6, for Neal Brown’s first win”
Beat writer · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Texas State bounces back with win against Louisiana Tech”
The University Star · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“No. 4/3 Football earns historic 24-23 comeback win over No. 1/1 Ohio State - University of Texas Athletics”
texaslonghorns.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Answering The Questions: Plenty to ponder after Ohio State's epi” — the real counter.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
“Answering The Questions: Plenty to ponder after Ohio State's epic collapse at Texas”
247Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Skip Bayless holds nothing back on Ohio State football's brutal loss to Texas”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
💬The boards11% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (81%).›
This event was in 94 of 867 board posts (11%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I am planning to transfer to txstate while I’m here at my current college I’m alone and unhappy doing a major I don’t even want my plan is to transfer to Texas state to finally be"
r/txstate ~ fan take
"Is anyone else having trouble with their financial aid? I got my request for chapter 35 for fall 2026 approved back in June but when I called the Va office they said they didn’t re"
r/txstate ~ fan take
Board health this week (123 posts): 11% positive · 45% neutral · 44% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Texas State · Transfer portal Confidence
Texas State signed a top-27 portal class — Nate Yarnell headlines the class. Fall camp is the real verdict.
Texas State signed a top-27 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Nate Yarnell (QB) from Pittsburgh and Holden Geriner (QB) from Auburn. It is the No. 1 portal class in the Pac-12 this cycle. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers7 bull takes
💬 fans: 7% volume · negative overall
The saga so far~3 months old
4 weeks agoOther top QBs transferred out, but not Texas State's Brad Jackson. Why he says he stayed — Yahoo Sports
4 weeks ago'I ain't trying to be a Buckeye': Why Texas football transfer star Rasheem Biles has Ohio State game circled — 247Sports
Jun 26Chaz Coleman Reportedly Medically Disqualified from Tennessee Roster After PSU Transfer — Bleacher Report
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Nate Yarnell QB · Pittsburgh
Holden Geriner QB · Auburn
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
With Shaker Reisig arriving at QB and Donterry Russell (EDGE) headlining Texas State's top-9 portal class, G.J. Kinne adds depth to a 7-6 roster already returning 100% of its passing game.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious question after any portal class isn't who signed — it's who just lost their job. Depth-chart displacement is the untold second chapter: one starter-level arrival means a returning contributor is now competing or transferring out. Watch depth-chart competition in fall camp — that's where portal classes win or lose their billing. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Texas State signed a top-27 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Nate Yarnell (QB) from Pittsburgh and Holden Geriner (QB) from Auburn — the No. 1 portal class in the Pac-12 this cycle.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers7 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.›
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
“Pittsburg State transfer safety Jordan Rogers commits to Texas Tech”
On3 · 2026-06-25 · read ↗
“FBS Committee Proposes Changes to Transfer Portal Window, Timeline Revealed”
Bleacher Report · 2026-06-25 · read ↗
“Clemson football lands Texas State defensive lineman transfer”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-05-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards7% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (81%).›
This event was in 62 of 867 board posts (7%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I am planning to transfer to txstate while I’m here at my current college I’m alone and unhappy doing a major I don’t even want my plan is to transfer to Texas state to finally be"
r/txstate ~ fan take
"Is anyone else having trouble with their financial aid? I got my request for chapter 35 for fall 2026 approved back in June but when I called the Va office they said they didn’t re"
r/txstate ~ fan take
Board health this week (123 posts): 11% positive · 45% neutral · 44% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Rival pulse
UTSA
Mixed-2
I-35 Rivalry
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Texas State is the Sun Belt program whose 2012 FBS reclassification + 2023 8-5 + GJ Kinne era + Jim Wacker Stadium identity define what most-recent-FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlDefense: Soft
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Texas State
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production76%High continuity
Talent Composite#82 nationally247 composite 624.8
Portal Additions18Primary repair: OT
Portal Losses21Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#74Depth class
Full roster (109 players)
DBAmarion Atwood, Chase Davis, Christopher Jones, Cordarian Powell, Craig Royal Jr., Dexter Ricks Jr., Greg Gipson Jr., Jayden Bradley, Jayden Flournoy, Jayden Lawton, John Smith, Michael Patterson, Ryan Nolan, Skylar Lewis, Trez Moore, Will Mitchell II
DLBlake Isbell, Braylon Young, Bryce Carter, Cam Christian, Chancellor Owens, Colt Sparks, Cullen Thompson, D'Ante Keys, Donterry Russell, Emmanuel Peter, J.P. Deeter, Jason Patterson, Javarius Bell, Jaylen Harris, Jo'Laison Landry, Jonathan Davis, Josiah Graham, Jussiah Ali, Kaleb James, Mekhi Buchanan, Phillip Bradford, Simeon Garner, Ta'Derius Collins, Tae Woody
LBAyden Jones, Blaine Carver, Cole Nilles, Darius Davis, Javante Mackey, Jordan Sample, TJ Burkhalter, Terrence Cooks II, Treylin Payne
OLAidin Rhodes, Alan Grimme, Amari Smith, Ameer Ross, Bamidele Badusi, Cameron Schultz, Eric Perkins, Etueni Ropati, Jayden Luckett, Jaylen Early, Justin DeLeon, Kirk Gildon, Mikel Udengwu, Preston Ward, Rasheed Jackson, Sully Burns, Teagan Lindsey, Terrance Brown Jr., Tyler Norris, William Boone
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-0.4 net portal points
(raw ledger: -7.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)OT+7.1
need filled
S-5.6
starter risk
IOL-3.7
CB+3.5
RB-3.5
low confidence
EDGE-3.5
LB+3.3
QB-3.3
DL-2.4
WR+0.3
K+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
LaKeyleon Graves
#586 national
★★★☆☆
Xavier Warren
#665 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Cullen Thompson
#731 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
20
TX · 15MS · 2CA · 1LA · 1OK · 1
TX leads the 2026 class with 15 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
79 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Texas State player grew up 216 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
33rd-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%154–450 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi11%11 of 104 players
Farthest1,459 miCole Nilles · Philadelphia, PA
Closest1 miDarius Davis · San Marcos, TX
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Bobcat Stadium (TX). Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 104 of 109 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Texas State Defeats Rice 41-10
[Game Thread] Armed Forces Bowl: Texas State vs. Rice (1:00 PM ET)
[Postgame Thread] Texas State Defeats ULM 31-14
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Belief history
↓
Fan confidence at its lowest on record
3rd percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
3rd
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(45th among FBS)
(45th among FBS)
Market 42pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
50% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~54% league baseline.
3 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
12 penalties committed, 15 drawn on opponents — netting a 30-yard field-position edge.
120 penalty yards committed vs. 150 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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