The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Oregon State 48%, Fresno State 62%
Win out 26% · expect 2.0 of 3 more wins
Texas State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Oregon State 48%, Fresno State 62%, Washington State 88%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 18% to 10%, peaking at 18% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Pac-12 · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Brad Jackson 1,933 · Rushing Torrance Burgess Jr. 922 · Receiving Chris Dawn Jr. 467 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Texas State:athletics sitePac-12
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #34 | #5 | +29.5✗ −22.5 | @Texas | L 7-59 140 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Jackson 150 · Rush Jenkins 34 · Rec Cusano 58 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #31 | #16 | −1.5✗ −6.5 | UTSA | L 26-31 154 Loud | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Jackson 192 · Rush Burgess Jr. 149 · Rec Evans 96 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #32 | #120 | −3✓ +11 | North Texas | W 49-35 158 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Jackson 268 · Rush Burgess Jr. 214 · Rec Dawn Jr. 107 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #38 | #150 | −30.5✓ +22.5 | Incarnate Word | W 63-10 159 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Jackson 244 · Rush Burgess Jr. 140 · Rec Sample 92 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #35 | #68 | −10✗ −12 | @San Diego State | L 29-31 154 Firestorm | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Jackson 372 · Rush Jackson 80 · Rec Sparks 153 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 15 | #32 | #90 | −15.5✓ +23.5 | Colorado State | W 66-27 146 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Jackson 213 · Rush Burgess Jr. 224 · Rec Sparks 57 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #27 | #76 | −14.5✗ −11.5 | Utah State | W 20-17 137 | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Jackson 167 · Rush Burgess Jr. 51 · Rec Dawn Jr. 48 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #33 | #11 | +10✓ +9 | @Boise State | L 45-46 149 | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Jackson 327 · Rush Jackson 54 · Rec Sample 89 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #31 | #38 | +6.5 | @Oregon State | 10:30 pm ET · The CW48% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #32 | #48 | Fresno State | 4 pm ET · The CW62% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Washington State | 6 pm ET · USA Network88% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Texas State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Texas State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Boise State | L 45-46 | 429 | 1 | 22:59 | +0.208 | 38.5% | 1.67 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | Utah State | W 20-17 | 250 | 0 | 28:16 | -0.069 | 44.3% | 0.82 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 15 | Colorado State | W 66-27 | 716 | 1 | 29:24 | +0.567 | 60.0% | 1.47 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | @San Diego State | L 29-31 | 565 | 2 | 40:33 | +0.060 | 48.1% | 1.13 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | Incarnate Word | W 63-10 | 658 | 1 | 29:33 | +0.600 | 50.7% | 1.77 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | North Texas | W 49-35 | 605 | 0 | 27:25 | +0.530 | 59.2% | 1.38 | |
| Sep 12 | UTSA | L 26-31 | 481 | 3 | 31:40 | +0.143 | 47.5% | 1.02 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | @Texas | L 7-59 | 349 | 3 | 30:26 | +0.139 | 41.1% | 1.13 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 507 | 1.4 | +0.272 | 48.7% | 1.30 | ||||
Texas State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Since [Davian] Jackson wasn’t out there, the coaches told me it would be tough to take me out
1% now · ▼ 1 point in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · Texas State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 2%; 5 wins 23%; 6 wins 48%; 7 wins 26%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Pac-12 teams the same season
Texas State was the most recent program to climb to FBS and spent a decade as a Sun Belt afterthought — then GJ Kinne won three straight bowl games and the revamped Pac-12 handed San Marcos a Power seat, turning the doormat into a conference flagship almost overnight.
Fans have heard it for a decade — that Texas State is the newcomer that doesn't matter, the FBS arrival nobody respects. Getting the Pac-12 nod over older, bigger programs is the answer they wanted…
Texas State · Game-day weather
Typical at Bobcat Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm Saturdays 75
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 109 at noon, 109 at 3:30 pm, 94 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Texas State is the Sun Belt program whose 2012 FBS reclassification + 2023 8-5 + GJ Kinne era + Jim Wacker Stadium identity define what most-recent-FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
61st percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Texas State · 2026