Texas State at Oregon State
Oregon State (5‑3) hosts Texas State (4‑4). The market has Oregon State favored by 6.5. Oregon State’s passing offense is at the 90th percentile; Texas State’s pass defense is at the 18th.
How they got here
Last three games
Texas State · 4-4
Rated 34th in our preseason ratings, 31st now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Oregon State · 5-3
Rated 69th in our preseason ratings, 38th now, up 31 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 56-26 @ Colorado State No. 87 of 668 teams
won by 30 as a 7-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Oregon State’s passing EPA against Texas State, 72 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oregon State’s passing EPA against Texas State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 90th percentile · Texas State defense, 18th
Oregon State’s EPA/play against Texas State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 93rd percentile · Texas State defense, 33rd
Oregon State’s explosive plays against Texas State’s defense
Oregon State offense, 83rd percentile · Texas State defense, 51st
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Texas State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans have heard it for a decade — that Texas State is the newcomer that doesn't matter, the FBS arrival nobody respects. Getting the Pac-12 nod over older, bigger programs is the answer they wanted, and they want Kinne to prove San Marcos earned the upgrade.
What this game touches
The decade nobody noticed. Texas State reclassified to FBS in 2012 and then spent a decade as a losing-record afterthought with no bowl appearances, the kind of program outsiders used as a schedule-filler — a stretch only erased when GJ Kinne arrived in 2023 and immediately won.
Oregon State
The chip · vs big brotherOregon walked into the Big Ten and left the Civil War behind without a backward glance. The fanbase in Corvallis hasn't forgotten which neighbor abandoned the rivalry — or that the Beavers stayed when staying was the hard thing.
What this game touches
Left behind in the Pac-12 collapse. When ten Pac-12 schools announced departures for 2024, only Oregon State and Washington State were left holding a 108-year-old conference with no other members. The Beavers won the legal fight to keep the brand, then spent 2025 paying the football cost: a 2-10 season, a 0-7 start, and Trent Bray fired seven games in.
Best players
Texas State
- Torrance Burgess Jr. (RB) · 922 rushing yards
- Jayden Bradley (DB) · 56 tackles
- Brad Jackson (QB) · 1,933 passing yards
Oregon State
- Jesse Legree (WR) · 1,110 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 19th (+2000)
- Braden Atkinson (QB) · 2,956 passing yards — Heisman odds: 33rd (+10000)
- Aiden Sullivan (LB) · 60 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Braden Atkinson (QB) — Oregon State’s leading passer (2,956 passing yards) takes on Texas State’s pass defense (18th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward Texas State since opening (−8.5 → −6.5).
The total has moved up 6.0 points since opening (66.5 → 72.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Texas State fans are in a better mood than Oregon State fans (61st percentile vs 12th among FBS fanbases), even with Oregon State favored.
- Model · 52%
- Line · 70%
- Oregon State fans · 12th
- Texas State fans · 61st
Oregon State favored by 6.5 · Total 72.5
Oregon State by 6.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Oregon State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Reser Stadium: noon Saturdays score 96, 7:30 pm Saturdays 91
Texas State at Oregon State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 10:30 pm ET · Reser Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Reser Stadium: noon Saturdays score 96, 3:30 pm 92, 7:30 pm 91.
- noon: 96, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Oregon State is worth +2.8 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 24th percentile.
50% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (23-23 home, 14-31 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.1 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,712 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Oregon State
- Wk 4Wat UTEP33-7
- Wk 5Wat Colorado State56-26
- Wk 6Wvs San Diego State66-14
- Wk 7Wvs Washington State48-30
- Wk 9Lat Fresno State22-38
Texas State
- Wk 4Wvs Incarnate Word63-10
- Wk 5Lat San Diego State29-31
- Wk 7Wvs Colorado State66-27
- Wk 8Wvs Utah State20-17
- Wk 9Lat Boise State45-46
Power rating by week
Texas State is rated 1.2 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Texas State.
The total rose 6 points.
Spread: −8.5 → −6.5 · Total: 66.5 → 72.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Oregon State2nd3-1
- Texas State6th2-2