FBS CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON
THE LONG WAIT · 2025
When USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State all left for the Big Ten and Big 12 in 2023-24, Washington State and Oregon State refused to dissolve the conference. They sued their departing partners over media and exit rights, reached a settlement, and used that runway to recruit Mountain West programs into a reconstituted Pac-12. The rebuilt league — headquartered in Las Vegas, built around programs that were passed over by the realignment wave — opened full play in 2025. It is an experiment in institutional survival, and one of the stranger things to happen in American college sports.
Washington State and Oregon State refused to let the conference die. Now they have to prove that a Pac-12 built from Mountain West transfers and the two programs everyone else abandoned can earn a CFP berth and a national media contract that sustains it — or was survival the hard part, and credibility is harder?
Conference Standings · Pac-12 · 2025
| # | Team | Conf |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington State | 1–1 |
| 2 | Oregon State | 1–1 |
Conference record determines standing. Power = neutral-field pts vs. all-level average. Last 5 = most recent game results.
Projected Standings · Pac-12 · 2026
Preseason model — odds of winning at least N conference games, from current power ratings. Tiers rank projected strength; AVG = expected conference wins.
| # | Team | W–L | PWR | AVG | ≥7 | ≥6 | ≥5 | ≥4 | ≥3 | ≥2 | ≥1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites | |||||||||||
| 1 | Texas State | 4–3 | +3.1 | 4.1 | 2 | 14 | 39 | 69 | 90 | 98 | ✓ |
| 2 | Washington State | 4–3 | +3.0 | 4.0 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 65 | 88 | 97 | ✓ |
| Challengers | |||||||||||
| 3 | San Diego State | 4–3 | +2.0 | 3.9 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 63 | 86 | 97 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fresno State | 4–3 | +1.6 | 3.7 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 57 | 83 | 96 | ✓ |
| The Field | |||||||||||
| 5 | Boise State | 4–3 | +1.0 | 3.7 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 58 | 83 | 96 | ✓ |
| 6 | Utah State | 3–4 | -1.0 | 3.3 | 4 | 17 | 42 | 72 | 92 | 99 | |
| Rebuilding | |||||||||||
| 7 | Oregon State | 3–4 | -3.9 | 2.8 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 59 | 85 | 97 | |
| 8 | Colorado State | 2–5 | -5.8 | 2.4 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 45 | 76 | 95 | |
Conference Power · FBS
| # | Conference | Avg Power |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEC | |
| 2 | Big Ten | |
| 3 | ACC | |
| 4 | Big 12 | |
| 5 | Pac-12You are here | |
| 6 | American Athletic | |
| 7 | Mountain West | |
| 8 | Sun Belt | |
| 9 | Mid-American | |
| 10 | Conference USA |
Round-robin power = strength of schedule-adjusted conference average, points vs. all-level average team. Record = Pac-12's record vs. that conference across all games this season.
Pac-12 is a very small affiliation group this season, so its strength is shown with extra regression instead of being treated like a full league ecosystem.
The league stack, sorted by predictive strength. Power is shown as neutral-field points versus the all-level average team, while resume is shown on a 0-100 season score.
| Rank | Team | Record | Power | Resume | ATS | Wins vs Market | Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #21 | Washington State | 7-6 | +17.4 | 88 | 9-4 | +1.19 | 3-1 over the last 4 (W12 L13 W14 W17) |
| #151 | Oregon State | 2-10 | +10.5 | 31 | 4-8 | -3.39 | 1-3 over the last 4 (W10 L11 L12 L14) |
Rank movement since the most recent refresh.
Teams whose stock dropped most since the last refresh.
Who beat the number most often this season.
| Team | Cover Rate | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Washington State | 69.2% | 9-4 ATS |
| Oregon State | 33.3% | 4-8 ATS |
Win total minus the market's implied expectation, by team.
| Team | Wins vs Market | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Washington State | +1.19 | 13 lined games |
| Oregon State | -3.39 | 12 lined games |
How wide the league's power spread runs from top to bottom.