CFB Zeitgeist Score
85
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 94th percentile.
Dylan Riley
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,125 RUSH YDS · 10 RUSH TD · 195 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Boise State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Boise State
Returning around him
- 58% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 1 Boise State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -8 net (11 in / 19 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Boise State · Last season: 9-5 (AP #25) · Talent rank #81 · 2026 recruiting class #62
RB · BOISE STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Dylan Riley
- 2
- #24
- 5-10 | 190 lb
- Moreno Valley, CA
Heisman Heat
#1603
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Boise State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3-star | 0.8719 | No. 861 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (1125).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8719
#861 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Dylan Riley
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=7
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Dylan Riley
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 14g
1,125Rush yards
195Carries
10Rush TDs
Per game
80.4Rush yards
14Carries
1Rush TDs
Final
1,125Rush yards
195Carries
10Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 1,125.
✓ Hit 1,000-yard season · finished with 1,125.
✓ Hit 10 rushing TDs · finished with 10.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Dylan Riley already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Efficient runner | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
195 96th
YDS
1,125 97th
YPC
5.8 81st
TD
10 96th
Receiving
REC
15 75th
YDS
149 84th
YPR
9.9 77th
TD
2 97th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 14 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 7-34@ South Florida | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 2 | W 51-14vs Eastern Washington | 6 | 123 | 20.5 | 1 | 77 | |
| Wk 4 | W 49-37@ Air Force | 19 | 171 | 9.0 | 4 | 43 | 4 rushing TDs |
| Wk 5 | W 47-14vs App State | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 6 | L 7-28@ Notre Dame | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 7 | W 41-25vs New Mexico | 18 | 101 | 5.6 | 0 | 28 | |
| Wk 8 | W 56-31vs UNLV | 15 | 201 | 13.4 | 1 | 65 | Season-high 201 yds |
| Wk 9 | W 24-3@ Nevada | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 1 | 8 | |
| Wk 10 | L 7-30vs Fresno State | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 12 | L 7-17@ San Diego State | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 1 | 9 | |
| Wk 13 | W 49-21vs Colorado State | 14 | 72 | 5.1 | 1 | 35 | |
| Wk 14 | W 25-24@ Utah State | 25 | 120 | 4.8 | 1 | 21 | |
| Wk 15 | W 38-21vs UNLV | 21 | 75 | 3.6 | 0 | 9 | |
| Bowl | L 10-38@ Washington | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 | 10 | |
| Total | 195 | 1125 | 6.2 | 10 | 77 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Boise State9-5HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | 195 | 1,125 | 5.8 | 10 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 195 | 1,125 | 5.8 | 10 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | 15 | 149 | 9.9 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 15 | 149 | 9.9 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 1,125 | #22/735 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 10 | #33/739 | 96th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.8 | #139/735 | 81st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 15 | #140/552 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 149 | #91/548 | 84th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.11 | #192/362 | 47th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 190 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 20.6% | #83/738 | 89th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 195 | #31/739 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 77 | #31/733 | 96th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 75 | #9/540 | 99th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 9.9 | #129/548 | 77th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 2 | #20/552 | 97th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 37.1% | #77/738 | 90th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 26.1% | #71/738 | 91st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 24.4% | #83/738 | 89th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 23.6% | #58/738 | 92nd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 13.2% | #105/738 | 86th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 8.0% | #286/738 | 61st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.9% | #237/738 | 68th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 14 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 90.6 | 7.7 | 0.4 |
| Road7g | 70.1 | 4.8 | 1.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 105 | 7.5 | 1.0 |
| Losses5g | 36.4 | 3.9 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 75.4 | 7.3 | 0.7 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 85.3 | 5.2 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
85All-Conference
Elite: rush yards (93rd). Strength: long run (91st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.11Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Dylan RileyBoise StateAlex TeczaNavy· 94% simCamryn EdwardsUConn· 93% simChip TrayanumToledo· 90% sim
Rush yards
Long run
Carries
Rush TDs
Yards / carry
Rec yards
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jai'Den Thomas’s 2024 season.
Jai'Den Thomas
82%match
All-Mountain West
#2
Jaivian Thomas
76%
#3
De'Montre Tuggle
75%
#4
Jawhar Jordan
NFL Rd 6
71%
#5
Mar'Keise Irving
71%
Matches Jai'Den on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Weight
Rush TD rate
Differs from Jai'Den on
Height (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Tre Stewart’s path through Jacksonville State.
Tre Stewart
93%match
All-Conference USA
#2
Jai'Den Thomas
All-Mountain West
92%
#3
Rhamondre Stevenson
NFL Rd 4
90%
#4
Mekhi Sargent
90%
#5
Kelley Joiner Jr.
86%
Matches Tre on
Height
Yards per carry
Weight
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Jai'Den Thomas's sophomore season at UNLV (2024).
Jai'Den Thomas
75%match
All-Mountain West
#2
Keaton Mitchell
All-AAC
75%
#3
Jaivian Thomas
73%
#4
T.J. Pledger
68%
#5
Jamauri McClure
70%
Matches Jai'Den on
EPA / carry (adj)
Height
Yards / reception
Differs from Jai'Den on
Class year (lower)
Total rush EPA (college ability) (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Spencer Danielson
Pass share
46.6%
472 pass / 540 run
Plays / game
72.3
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.4%
358 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Spencer Danielson
Boise State
Played his entire career under Spencer Danielson.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMoreno Valley, CA
Height5'10"
Weight190 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey24
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamBoise State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Mountain West
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Mountain West | all_conference | Boise State | Mountain West | RB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Boise State | RB2 | #1603 | #1445 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | Mountain West | RB | 2 | No. 24 | 5-10 | 190 lb | Moreno Valley, CA |
| 2024 | Boise State | Mountain West | RB | 2 | No. 24 | 5-10 | 190 lb | Moreno Valley, CA |