CFB Zeitgeist Score
66
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 96th percentile.
Lucky Sutton
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,292 RUSH YDS · 10 RUSH TD · 253 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to San Diego State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · San Diego State
Returning around him
- 80% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- 1 San Diego State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +0 net (26 in / 26 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
San Diego State · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #86 · 2026 recruiting class #78
RB · SAN DIEGO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Lucky Sutton
- 3
- #7
- 6-1 | 212 lb
- San Diego, CA
Heisman Heat
#3905
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
3 seasons on the ladder
2022
San Diego State · RB
—
2023
San Diego State · RB
—
★
2025
San Diego State · RB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2022–2025+16050%
Up 16050% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
San Diego State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8785 | No. 592 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 1292 rushing yards — clears the 1,200-RB volume bar.
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (1292).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8785
#592 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Lucky Sutton
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
100
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Lucky Sutton
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 13g
1,292Rush yards
253Carries
10Rush TDs
Per game
99.4Rush yards
19Carries
1Rush TDs
Final
1,292Rush yards
253Carries
10Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 1,292.
✓ Hit 1,000-yard season · finished with 1,292.
✓ Hit 10 rushing TDs · finished with 10.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Lucky Sutton already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
253 100th
YDS
1,292 98th
YPC
5.1 65th
TD
10 96th
Receiving
REC
5 43rd
YDS
3 7th
YPR
0.6 3rd
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-0vs Stony Brook | 23 | 100 | 4.3 | 2 | 20 | |
| Wk 2 | L 13-36@ Washington State | 15 | 88 | 5.9 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 4 | W 34-0vs California | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 1 | 11 | |
| Wk 5 | W 6-3@ Northern Illinois | 17 | 88 | 5.2 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 6 | W 45-24vs Colorado State | 21 | 113 | 5.4 | 2 | 16 | |
| Wk 7 | W 44-10@ Nevada | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 1 | 9 | |
| Wk 9 | W 23-0@ Fresno State | 21 | 131 | 6.2 | 1 | 46 | |
| Wk 10 | W 24-7vs Wyoming | 28 | 158 | 5.6 | 1 | 50 | Season-high 158 yds |
| Wk 11 | L 6-38@ Hawai'i | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 12 | W 17-7vs Boise State | 25 | 150 | 6.0 | 0 | 27 | 150-yard day |
| Wk 13 | W 25-3vs San José State | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 1 | 12 | |
| Wk 14 | L 17-23@ New Mexico | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 1 | 15 | |
| Bowl | L 47-49vs North Texas | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Total | 253 | 1292 | 5.1 | 10 | 50 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022San Diego State7-6HC: Brady Hoke · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2023San Diego State4-8HC: Brady Hoke · Run-leaning
2025San Diego State9-4HC: Sean Lewis · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | 253 | 1,292 | 5.1 | 10 | -- |
| 2023 | San Diego State | 30 | 157 | 5.2 | 2 | -- |
| 2022 | San Diego State | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 285 | 1,457 | 5.1 | 12 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | San Diego State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | San Diego State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 1,292 | #13/735 | 98th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 10 | #33/739 | 96th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.1 | #257/735 | 65th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 5 | #315/552 | 43rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 3 | #513/548 | 7th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.21 | #52/362 | 86th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 232 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 31.0% | #9/738 | 99th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 253 | #4/739 | 100th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 50 | #162/733 | 78th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 8 | #438/540 | 19th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 0.6 | #535/548 | 3rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 47.3% | #23/738 | 97th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 36.5% | #8/738 | 99th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 35.3% | #9/738 | 99th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 30.0% | #20/738 | 97th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 22.2% | #16/738 | 98th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 21.5% | #15/738 | 98th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 4.5% | #188/738 | 75th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 103 | 4.9 | 1.0 |
| Road6g | 95.2 | 5.2 | 0.5 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 106 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
| Losses4g | 84.0 | 4.8 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 83.7 | 5.0 | 0.9 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 118 | 5.2 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
66Solid starter
Elite: carries (98th). Strength: rush yards (96th). Concern: rec yards (1st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.21High (p75–p90) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Lucky SuttonSan Diego StateKaelon BlackIndiana· 88% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 83% simJordan GantAkron· 83% sim
Carries
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Yards / carry
Long run
Receptions
Rec yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Samuel Brown V’s 2022 season.
Samuel Brown V
68%match
#2
Deion Hankins
63%
#3
Spencer Brown
61%
#4
Samson Evans
All-MAC
61%
#5
Brad Roberts
All-Mountain West
59%
Matches Samuel on
Rush TD rate
Class year
Weight
Differs from Samuel on
Yards / carry (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Demetric Felton’s path through UCLA.
Demetric Felton
94%match
NFL Rd 6
#2
Jordan Mcdonald
91%
#3
Joshua Samuel
88%
#4
Joe Jackson
All-Big 12NFL Rd 5
88%
#5
CJ Marable
88%
Matches Demetric on
Yards per carry
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Diego Pavia's senior season at Vanderbilt (2025).
Diego Pavia
66%match
Unitas Golden ArmAll-Conference USA
#2
Brennan Armstrong
All-ACC
66%
#3
Bryson Barnes
All-Mountain West
64%
#4
Dequan Finn
All-MAC
60%
#5
Brendon Lewis
62%
Matches Diego on
Weight
Height
Differs from Diego on
Class year (lower)
EPA / carry (adj) (lower)
Rush TD rate (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Sean Lewis
Pass share
35.3%
290 pass / 532 run
Plays / game
63.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.6%
224 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Brady Hoke
San Diego State
2023
Brady Hoke
San Diego State
2025era →
Sean Lewis
San Diego State
Coaching transition mid-career: Brady Hoke → Sean Lewis. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownSan Diego, CA
Height6'1"
Weight212 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey7
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSan Diego State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Mountain West
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Mountain West | all_conference | San Diego State | Mountain West | RB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | San Diego State | RB3 | #3905 | #4143 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | San Diego State | RB3 | #1898 | #2388 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | San Diego State | RB3 | #3074 | #2974 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State | Mountain West | RB | 3 | No. 7 | 6-1 | 212 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2024 | San Diego State | Mountain West | RB | 3 | No. 7 | 6-1 | 212 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2023 | San Diego State | Mountain West | RB | 3 | No. 7 | 6-1 | 212 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2022 | San Diego State | Mountain West | RB | 3 | No. 7 | 6-1 | 212 lb | San Diego, CA |