Utah State at San Diego State
Utah State (3‑5) at San Diego State (4‑5) — no line posted yet, but the model favors Utah State (65%). San Diego State’s offense is at the 10th percentile on efficiency; Utah State’s defense is at the 64th.
How they got here
Last three games
Utah State · 3-5
Rated 52nd in our preseason ratings, 58th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
San Diego State · 4-5
Rated 36th in our preseason ratings, 88th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Fresno State as a 6.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: San Diego State’s EPA/play against Utah State, 54 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
San Diego State’s EPA/play against Utah State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 10th percentile · Utah State defense, 64th
San Diego State’s rushing EPA against Utah State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 12th percentile · Utah State defense, 64th
San Diego State’s explosive plays against Utah State’s defense
San Diego State offense, 37th percentile · Utah State defense, 76th
What’s at stake
Utah State
- Utah State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2021.
San Diego State
- San Diego State is 1 game back in Pac-12 with 1 left to make it up.
- San Diego State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2018.
The series
San Diego State leads the series 13-5
18 meetings since 1947 · Utah State has won the last 3
- 2024Utah State 41-20
- 2023Utah State 32-24
- 2021Utah State 46-13
- 2020San Diego State 38-7
- 2019Utah State 23-17
Each line is San Diego State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Utah State
The chip · vs big brotherAggie fans have spent forever as the state's third program, behind Utah and BYU, told Logan is too small and too cold to matter. They'll point to the Pac-12 invitation and ask which little brother is moving up now.
What this game touches
The years of churn before the reset. Utah State's 2021 Mountain West title gave way to staff upheaval and instability, and Bronco Mendenhall inherited a program that needed rebuilding. His first year, 2025, went 6-7 (4-4 Mountain West) with a Famous Idaho Potato Bowl loss to Washington State — a steadying season, not yet a winning one.
San Diego State
The chip · vs the national mediaAztec fans are tired of being the program everyone respects and nobody ranks — the California school with two Hall-of-Fame names in its past that kept getting filed under 'G5.' They'll tell you the Pac-12 invite just made official what they always knew.
What this game touches
The doorstep years — the realignment bridesmaid. For a decade SDSU built like a power program — a 12-win 2016, a College Football Playoff-adjacent reputation, a brand-new Snapdragon Stadium in 2022 — and watched bigger leagues form, dissolve, and reform without it. The 2024 season bottomed at 3-9 under new coach Sean Lewis before the rebuild and the Pac-12 invitation arrived together.
Best players
Utah State
- Asher Cunningham (LB) · 64 tackles
- Brevin Hamblin (S) · 62 tackles
- Titan Saxton (DB) · 46 tackles
San Diego State
- Sione Hala (LB) · 80 tackles
- Tano Letuli (LB) · 69 tackles
- Josh Hunter (S) · 63 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Utah State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (72nd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Snapdragon Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 99, noon Saturdays 89
Utah State at San Diego State · Saturday, Nov. 14 · 9:30 pm ET · Snapdragon Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Snapdragon Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 95, 7:30 pm 99.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 99, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
San Diego State is worth +3.6 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 37th percentile.
63% at home, 43% on the road against FBS opponents (31-18 home, 20-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.0 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 685 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
San Diego State
- Wk 5Wvs Texas State31-29
- Wk 6Lat Oregon State14-66
- Wk 7Wvs Fresno State26-23
- Wk 8Lat Colorado State49-56
- Wk 9Wvs Washington State26-20
Utah State
- Wk 4Wvs Troy21-10
- Wk 5Lat Boise State18-37
- Wk 6Wvs Washington State17-16
- Wk 8Lat Texas State17-20
- Wk 9Wvs Colorado State31-14
Power rating by week
Utah State is rated 3.3 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- San Diego State3rd3-2
- Utah State4th2-2