The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 24 Arizona 52%, No. 7 BYU 64%
Win out 23% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins
Utah's chance to win each game left, from our model: BYU 64%, Arizona 52%, TCU 72%, West Virginia 95%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 27% to 49%, peaking at 49% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing1st in the Big 12 · 5-0 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Devon Dampier 1,876 · Rushing Wayshawn Parker 726 · Receiving Braden Pegan 505 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Utah:athletics siteBig 12X@utahathleticsInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #25 | #171 | −38.5✓ +13.5 | Idaho | W 66-14 136 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Dampier 176 · Rush Bell 87 · Rec Pegan 81 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #26 | #145 | −13.5✓ +19.5 | Arkansas | W 43-10 138 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Dampier 261 · Rush Parker 53 · Rec Bennee 113 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #29 | #57 | −26.5✓ +6.5 | Utah State | W 33-0 128 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Dampier 253 · Rush Bray 82 · Rec Pegan 122 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #25 | #114 | −7.5✓ +6.5 | @Iowa State | W 31-17 133 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Dampier 206 · Rush Parker 174 · Rec Parker 65 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #18 | #61 | −15.5✓ +1.5 | Kansas | W 41-24 136 | 5-0 | 2-0 | Pass Dampier 238 · Rush Parker 171 · Rec Johnson 104 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #16 | #109 | −15.5✗ −12.5 | @Colorado | W 27-24 135 | 6-0 | 3-0 | Pass Dampier 278 · Rush Parker 98 · Rec Whittemore 88 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #21 | #13 | −6.5✓ +1.5 | HoustonTop 25 win | W 21-13 127 | 7-0 | 4-0 | Pass Dampier 204 · Rush Dampier 150 · Rec Whittemore 53 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #16 | #66 | −7✓ +17 | @Cincinnati | W 49-25 135 | 8-0 | 5-0 | Pass Dampier 260 · Rush Parker 82 · Rec Andrews 112 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #14 | #18 | −5.5 | BYU | 12 pm ET · ABC64% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #14 | #15 | @Arizona | time TBA52% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @TCU | time TBA72% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | West Virginia | 9 pm ET · FOX | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Utah, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Utah: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Cincinnati | W 49-25 | 534 | 2 | 35:30 | +0.086 | 54.2% | 1.23 | |
| Oct 24 | Houston | W 21-13 | 430 | 2 | 30:05 | +0.350 | 54.0% | 1.13 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @Colorado | W 27-24 | 409 | 2 | 37:00 | +0.013 | 40.2% | 1.21 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Kansas | W 41-24 | 545 | 2 | 39:04 | +0.307 | 53.8% | 1.27 | |
| Sep 26 | @Iowa State | W 31-17 | 411 | 0 | 28:04 | +0.313 | 52.5% | 1.08 | |
| Sep 19 | Utah State | W 33-0 | 480 | 1 | 35:14 | +0.187 | 42.5% | 1.48 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | Arkansas | W 43-10 | 442 | 1 | 28:03 | +0.284 | 50.8% | 1.36 | Blowout win |
| Sep 3 | Idaho | W 66-14 | 633 | 0 | 34:20 | +0.511 | 57.1% | 1.36 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 486 | 1.2 | +0.256 | 50.6% | 1.26 | ||||
Utah's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
No. 3 Ohio State
First-round bye
Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
10-0 over the last 10, and won the last ten.
We were really just waiting for the right call, and we got the right call and it happened.
49% now · ▲ 12 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for West Virginia over Texas Tech
Sat 9:30 pm · Moves Utah’s playoff chance by 4 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Utah has reached elite-tier consistency — the 23-13 record over three seasons raises the question of whether Kyle Whittingham's 10th year can sustain a top-14% power rating with the market.
Statusfront page
Scalley inherits a 14% production returning roster after Whittingham's 46-21 run — the program that conquered the Pac-12 now faces whether a new era can hold the identity without the familiar names.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Utah · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
9 wins 6%; 10 wins 27%; 11 wins 44%; 12 wins 23%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Utah has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 20% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 23% a year ago. It is a 23-13 record over the last three regular seasons. The model registered a structural rise before the coverage did. Results on the field will test it.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Morgan Scalley took over as Utah's head coach, replacing Kyle Whittingham. It is replaces 22-year head coach Kyle Whittingham (177-88). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is thin so far, and the story is still developing.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 81 of 7952 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (100 posts): 18% positive · 52% neutral · 30% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 8-0
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Utah is the program that walks into every league it joins and wins it on toughness — and just watched the coach who built that culture over 21 years leave for Michigan, handing the keys to the man beside him the whole time.
Utah fans are tired of being the program the country keeps underrating — the conference-killer everyone treats as a fluke until it does it again. They'll tell you the Utes have out-toughed bluer…
Utah · Game-day weather
Typical at Rice-Eccles Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm Saturdays 84
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Utah is the program that conquered the Pac-12 in 2021-2022 and now imports that culture to the Big 12.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
70th percentile among FBS programs
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #1, Stephen Means (Cleveland.com), to #8, Zach Klein (WSB).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Utah · 2026