The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 13 Texas Tech 23%
Win out 1% · expect 1.5 of 4 more wins
TCU's chance to win each game left, from our model: Arizona 31%, Kansas State 68%, Utah 28%, Texas Tech 23%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 47% to 48%, peaking at 77% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 8th in the Big 12 · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jaden Craig 2,207 · Rushing Jeremy Payne 429 · Receiving Kari Ashley 560 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow TCU:athletics siteBig 12X
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #49 | #136 | −7.5✗ −12.5 | North Carolina (N) | L 10-15 128 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Craig 175 · Rush Payne 142 · Rec Small 65 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #53 | #202 | −44.5✓ +11.5 | Grambling | W 63-7 122 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Craig 391 · Rush Payne 79 · Rec Ashley 119 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #53 | #155 | −18.5✓ +5.5 | Arkansas State | W 31-7 122 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Craig 337 · Rush Payne 86 · Rec Small 164 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #46 | #94 | −3.5✗ −11.5 | @UCF | L 13-21 120 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Craig 310 · Rush Payne 48 · Rec Dwyer 100 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #49 | #7 | +5.5✗ −1.5 | BYU | L 10-17 117 | 2-3 | 0-2 | Pass Craig 187 · Rush Payne 77 · Rec Ashley 108 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #45 | #29 | +3.5✓ +14.5 | @Baylor | W 17-6 153 | 3-3 | 1-2 | Pass Craig 294 · Rush Walker 36 · Rec Dwyer 150 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #35 | #147 | −10✗ −14 | West Virginia | L 20-24 140 | 3-4 | 1-3 | Pass Craig 372 · Rush Denman 58 · Rec Ashley 118 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #40 | #61 | −6.5✗ −0.5 | Kansas | W 22-16 138 | 4-4 | 2-3 | Pass Craig 141 · Rush Craig 87 · Rec Ashley 50 |
| 10 | Nov 6 | #42 | #15 | +9.5 | @Arizona | 10:15 pm ET · ESPN31% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #44 | #60 | Kansas State | time TBA68% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Utah | time TBA28% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 26 | +16.5 | @Texas Tech | 8 pm ET · ESPN | |||||
Win chances are our model for TCU, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for TCU: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Kansas | W 22-16 | 286 | 1 | 21:03 | +0.113 | 35.1% | 1.27 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | West Virginia | L 20-24 | 484 | 3 | 37:36 | +0.085 | 45.1% | 1.26 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 17 | @Baylor | W 17-6 | 327 | 1 | 31:36 | -0.034 | 35.3% | 1.44 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | BYU | L 10-17 | 259 | 1 | 27:03 | -0.092 | 36.8% | 1.24 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @UCF | L 13-21 | 343 | 4 | 32:49 | -0.069 | 36.8% | 1.24 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | Arkansas State | W 31-7 | 468 | 1 | 34:34 | +0.212 | 45.6% | 1.35 | |
| Sep 12 | Grambling | W 63-7 | 676 | 1 | 29:34 | +0.624 | 69.0% | 1.18 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | North Carolina | L 10-15 | 281 | 1 | 33:02 | -0.046 | 33.3% | 1.22 | One-score loss |
| Season average (8 games) | 390 | 1.6 | +0.099 | 42.1% | 1.27 | ||||
TCU's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Bye week was good. I think we got a lot accomplished. I think number one we had to take a deep dive and look at everything we were doing and see why we probably hadn’t played our best
<1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · TCU · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 12%; 5 wins 40%; 6 wins 35%; 7 wins 12%; 8 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
TCU got abandoned when the Southwest Conference died, wandered three leagues for two decades, then walked into the national title game in 2022 — and now treats every purple Saturday like a debt the sport still owes Fort Worth.
The chip is the SWC breakup itself: the in-state powers grabbed the conference seats and left Fort Worth out in the cold, and fans believe TCU has spent thirty years proving the schools that…
TCU · Game-day weather
Typical at Amon G. Carter Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm Saturdays 79
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 113 at noon, 101 at 3:30 pm, 99 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
TCU is the program that made a national title-game appearance in 2022 and proved Big 12 outlier status is a feature, not a bug.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
21st percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · TCU · 2026