TCU beats Arkansas State 31-7

Team pages: Arkansas State · TCU

Arkansas State1-27
TCU2-131Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas · Crowd 46,139ESPNU

TCU beat Arkansas State 31-7.

We had TCU favored. It won.

Next: Arkansas State beat Kennesaw State 17-14, Sat Sep 26

Next: TCU lost to UCF 21-13, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave TCU an 89% chance, and the closing betting line (TCU was a 18.5-point favorite) put it at 93%.

Favored the whole way: TCU never fell below 87%.

Arkansas State never had better than a 12% chance.

FinalTCU 31-7 Arkansas StateTCU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfTCUWon31-7Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfTCUWon31-7Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfTCULowest 0%Lost7-31Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfTCULowest 0%Lost7-31Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

TCU’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (TCU -18.5), at 91% for TCU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show TCU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 8:36Payne 3-yd TD runTCU goes ahead 7-0Q1, 8:36 · TCU 7, Arkansas State 0▲3%TCU’s chance to win, 94% to 97%▲3%TCU’s chance to win, 94% to 97%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 0:09Craig intercepted by Williams at the ASU00returned 24 yardsQ1, 0:09 · TCU 7, Arkansas State 0▼2%TCU’s chance to win, 97% to 95%▼2%TCU’s chance to win, 97% to 95%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q2, 5:10Craig 17-yd TD pass to SmallTCU leads 14-0Q2, 5:10 · TCU 14, Arkansas State 0▲4%TCU’s chance to win, 93% to 97%▲4%TCU’s chance to win, 93% to 97%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 1:05Jolly 1-yd TD runcuts it to 14-7Q2, 1:05 · TCU 14, Arkansas State 7▼3%TCU’s chance to win, 98% to 95%▼3%TCU’s chance to win, 98% to 95%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q4, 1:52Craig 29-yd TD pass to AshleyTCU leads 31-7Q4, 1:52 · TCU 31, Arkansas State 731-7score after the play31-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

TCU scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Arkansas State on 1 of its 11.

TCU’s drives are teal, Arkansas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Arkansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 56PuntTCU: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 36DownsTCU: Punt, from 64 yards out to 64PuntArkansas State: Punt, from 89 yards out to 81PuntTCU: Interception, from 45 yards out to 34InterceptionArkansas State: Punt, from 76 yards out to 61PuntQ2TCU: Turned over on downs, from 70 yards out to 40DownsArkansas State: Punt, from 59 yards out to 57PuntTCU: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntTCU: Punt, from 90 yards out to 70PuntArkansas State: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownTCU: End of half, from 75 yards out to 47End of halfQ3TCU: Punt, from 80 yards out to 74PuntArkansas State: Turned over on downs, from 61 yards out to 1DownsTCU: Touchdown, from 99 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Punt, from 65 yards out to 63PuntQ4TCU: Field goal, from 89 yards out to 11Field goalArkansas State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 66DownsTCU: Touchdown, from 33 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: End of game, from 75 yards out to 64End of game

Box score

TCU 31, Arkansas State 7

TCU covered −18.5 by 5.5. The total, 38, stayed under 56.5.

Arkansas StateTCUTotal yardsArkansas State 261TCU 468261468Passing yardsArkansas State 133TCU 337133337Rushing yardsArkansas State 128TCU 131128131First downsArkansas State 11TCU 211121TurnoversArkansas State 0TCU 101Time of possessionArkansas State 25:26TCU 34:3425:2634:34
Team totalsArkansas StateTCU
Total yards261468
Passing11 of 24, 133 yds21 of 29, 337 yds
Rushing30 for 128 yds39 for 131 yds
First downs1121
Third down5 of 147 of 14
Fourth down0 of 32 of 3
Turnovers01
Penalties2 for 10 yds3 for 35 yds
Time of possession25:2634:34

Arkansas State leaders

  • Passing Trey Owens 11 of 24, 133 yds
  • Rushing Trey Owens 7 for 58 yds; James Lee 6 for 28 yds
  • Receiving Hunter Summers 3 for 47 yds; Jabari Bush 1 for 46 yds

TCU leaders

  • Passing Jaden Craig 21 of 29, 337 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jeremy Payne 24 for 86 yds, 1 TD; Joe Pitchford 7 for 26 yds
  • Receiving Ed Small 7 for 164 yds, 1 TD; Kari Ashley 5 for 87 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

94° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 84°, with about 7 in 10 games between 75° and 93°.

September game-day temperatures at Amon G. Carter Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4TCU favoredArkansas State favored100%Win chanceTCURaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels likedegrees F80°105°feels like 89°air 89°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4TCU favoredArkansas State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels like · degrees F80°105°feels like 89°air 89°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:47 left7:07 p.m.
Arkansas State 0, TCU 0 · TCU 91% to win
no rain · 93°
Clay 0-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Fort Worth Nas airport, 6.3 miles away, and Fort Worth/meacham airport, 7.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Arkansas State · 1-1

Rated 160th in our preseason ratings, 155th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 52-7 vs West Georgia #247 of 668

won by 45 as a 31.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 52-7 vs West Georgia. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

L 24-42 @ Memphis #97 of 668

lost by 18 as a 10.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 24-42 at Memphis. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 38%.

Last two games

TCU · 1-1

Rated 49th in our preseason ratings, 53rd now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 63-7 vs Grambling #184 of 668

won by 56 as a 44.5-point favorite

TCU won 63-7 vs Grambling. Never in doubt.

L 10-15 vs North Carolina #127 of 668

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite

TCU lost 10-15 vs North Carolina. Chance to win started at 73%, low 7%, high 87%.

Week by week

TCU

Wk 1: L 10-15 vs North Carolina▼5North CarolinaWk 2: W 63-7 vs Grambling▲56Grambling
  • Wk 1Lvs North Carolina10-15
  • Wk 2Wvs Grambling63-7

Arkansas State

Wk 1: L 24-42 at Memphis▼18MemphisWk 2: W 52-7 vs West Georgia▲45West Georgia
  • Wk 1Lat Memphis24-42
  • Wk 2Wvs West Georgia52-7

Power rating by week

TCU is rated 8.9 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

5-2-9Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2TCUArkansas State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Arkansas State’s explosive plays against TCU, 66 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Arkansas State’s explosive plays against TCU’s defense

    66 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Arkansas State offense, 14th percentile · TCU defense, 80th

  2. TCU’s passing EPA against Arkansas State’s defense

    52 pointsweakerstronger50th

    TCU offense, 55th percentile · Arkansas State defense, 3rd

  3. Arkansas State’s EPA/play against TCU’s defense

    41 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Arkansas State offense, 54th percentile · TCU defense, 95th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Arkansas StateTCU
EPA/play, offense
Arkansas State · 54TCU · 33
EPA/play, defense
Arkansas State · 22TCU · 95
Success rate, offense
Arkansas State · 81TCU · 46
Success rate, defense
Arkansas State ·…TCU · 89
Explosive-play rate, offense
Arkansas State ·…TCU · 66
Explosive-play rate, defense
Arkansas State · 52TCU · 80
Rush EPA, offense
Arkansas State · 61TCU · 9
Rush EPA, defense
Arkansas State · 57TCU · 97
Pass EPA, offense
Arkansas State · 42TCU · 55
Pass EPA, defense
Arkansas State · 3TCU · 89

The series

TCU leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 1999 · TCU has won the last 2

  • 2000TCU 52-3
  • 1999TCU 24-21

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

TCU fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (7th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

50-50Model 89% · Line 9…TCU fans · 7thArkansas State fans · 11thArkansas StateTCU

TCU favored by 18.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

TCU by 18.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Arkansas State.

opened −20.5now −18.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 57.5now 56.5

Spread: −20.5 → −18.5 · Total: 57.5 → 56.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 92° at kickoff.

Arkansas State at TCU · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth

  • 92°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 72weather score, Rough
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Amon G. Carter Stadium that day, a 2:30 pm or 3:30 pm kickoff would have scored 47, against 72 at 7 pm.

  • 11 am: 52, Rough
  • 11:45 am: 51, Rough
  • 1 pm: 48, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 47, Harsh
  • 3:30 pm: 47, Harsh
  • 6 pm: 63, Rough
  • 6:30 pm: 70, Rough
  • 7 pm: 72, Rough (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

TCU is worth +4.7 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 61st percentile.

60% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (27-18 home, 22-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 440 miles to get here.

Where next