West Georgia at Arkansas State
Fan take
Arkansas State fans
How they got here
Last two games
West Georgia · 0-2
Picked #213 in the preseason · now #216.
Two straight losses.
L 0–47 @ Kennesaw State #163 of 669
lost by 47 as a 22.5-point underdog
L 10–24 vs Chattanooga #168 of 669
lost by 14 as a 3.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Arkansas State · 7-6
Picked #160 in the preseason · now #153 — about right.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 34–28 vs Missouri State #154 of 668
won by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 30–29 @ App State #155 of 668
won by 1 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 30–34 vs Louisiana #101 of 668
lost by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 21–27 vs Southern Miss #90 of 668
lost by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 23–10 @ Troy #90 of 668
won by 13 as a 8-point underdog
W 34–24 vs Georgia Southern #128 of 668
won by 10 as a 1-point underdog
W 15–14 @ South Alabama #127 of 668
won by 1 as a 8.5-point underdog
W 31–30 vs Texas State #64 of 668
won by 1 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 16–28 @ UL Monroe #113 of 668
lost by 12 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 21–28 @ Kennesaw State #159 of 668
lost by 7 as a 4.5-point favorite
L 16–24 vs Iowa StateTop 25 #36 of 668
lost by 8 as a 20.5-point underdog
L 14–56 @ Arkansas #67 of 668
lost by 42 as a 24.5-point underdog
W 42–24 vs Southeast Missouri State #154 of 668
won by 18 as a 15.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
West Georgia
- West Georgia needs 6 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- West Georgia is still shaking off a 45-point loss.
Arkansas State
- Arkansas State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
The series
Arkansas State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · Arkansas State won the last meeting
- 2026Arkansas State 52–7
Best players
Arkansas State
- Robert Stevens (LB) · 15 tackles
- Joe Drew (S) · 13 tackles
- Elias Sherman (DT) · 13 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on Arkansas State’s chances here.
Home −31.5 · O/U 56.5
Conditions
90°F · 3 mph wind · Cloudy
Arkansas State is worth +4.5 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 59th percentile.
51% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (20–19 home, 15–33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.3 at home vs. away over 72 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 352 miles to get here.
West Georgia 7 – Arkansas State 52
Called it — picked Arkansas State to win.
Recent games
Arkansas State
- Wk 1Lat Memphis24-42
West Georgia
- Wk 1Lvs Chattanooga10-24
- Wk 1Lat Kennesaw State0-47
Trajectory
Arkansas State beat West Georgia 52-7 — exactly what the pregame pick had.