The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Auburn 31%
Win out <1% · expect 0.5 of 4 more wins
Arkansas's chance to win each game left, from our model: Auburn 31%, South Carolina 12%, Texas 5%, LSU 3%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 13% to 4%, peaking at 13% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 14th in the SEC · 1-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing KJ Jackson 1,673 · Rushing Sutton Smith 217 · Receiving Chris Marshall 601 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Arkansas:athletics siteSECXYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #145 | #207 | −40.5✗ −23.5 | North Alabama | W 31-14 128 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Jackson 267 · Rush Russell 49 · Rec Marshall 79 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #145 | #26 | +13.5✗ −19.5 | @Utah | L 10-43 138 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Jackson 139 · Rush Jackson 34 · Rec Marshall 63 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #141 | #3 | +24.5✗ −3.5 | Georgia | L 17-45 125 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Jackson 212 · Rush Smith 17 · Rec Marshall 104 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #134 | #104 | −7✓ +21 | Tulsa | W 34-6 134 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Jackson 309 · Rush Settles 40 · Rec Marshall 195 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #128 | #15 | +13.5✗ −13.5 | @Texas A&M | L 7-34 115 | 2-3 | 0-2 | Pass Jackson 111 · Rush Smith 41 · Rec Marshall 76 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #120 | #26 | +13.5✓ +6.5 | Tennessee | L 17-24 125 | 2-4 | 0-3 | Pass Jackson 155 · Rush Settles 50 · Rec Marshall 56 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #118 | #57 | +5.5✓ +15.5 | @Vanderbilt | W 31-21 132 | 3-4 | 1-3 | Pass Jackson 251 · Rush Jackson 58 · Rec Jordan 74 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #102 | #34 | +10.5✗ −13.5 | Missouri | L 10-34 136 | 3-5 | 1-4 | Pass Jackson 229 · Rush Settles 38 · Rec Jordan 106 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #110 | #54 | +10.5 | @Auburn | 12:45 pm ET · SEC Network31% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #120 | #24 | South Carolina | time TBA · SEC Network12% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Texas | time TBA5% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | LSU | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Arkansas, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Arkansas: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Missouri | L 10-34 | 288 | 4 | 28:15 | -0.167 | 40.8% | 1.09 | |
| Oct 17 | @Vanderbilt | W 31-21 | 438 | 0 | 33:47 | +0.268 | 47.9% | 1.12 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Tennessee | L 17-24 | 288 | 1 | 32:04 | -0.022 | 42.9% | 0.91 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | @Texas A&M | L 7-34 | 214 | 1 | 21:52 | -0.208 | 34.0% | 1.09 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Tulsa | W 34-6 | 441 | 1 | 37:31 | +0.078 | 41.2% | 1.15 | Blowout win |
| Sep 19 | Georgia | L 17-45 | 300 | 1 | 24:20 | +0.067 | 42.9% | 1.08 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | @Utah | L 10-43 | 305 | 1 | 31:57 | -0.041 | 31.6% | 1.58 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | North Alabama | W 31-14 | 415 | 3 | 41:25 | +0.176 | 52.4% | 0.94 | Best success rate |
| Season average (8 games) | 336 | 1.5 | +0.019 | 41.7% | 1.12 | ||||
Arkansas's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
The bullet that shattered the tip of Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy ‘s left femur remains lodged in his body, Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz told me
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Silverfield, who previously coached at Memphis, inherits a 2-10 losing record and a program with no in-state rival, raising questions about his ability to unify a fractured fanbase.
Statusdeveloping
Silverfield, who went 2-10 at Memphis, inherits a 36% production return and a program that hasn't won an SEC game since 2021 — the stakes are clear, the margin for error narrow.
Statusdeveloping
Silverfield, who previously coached at Memphis, inherits a 2-10 losing record and a program with no in-state rival, raising questions about how to rebuild in the SEC's toughest conference.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Arkansas · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 56%; 4 wins 37%; 5 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 103 of 8115 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (374 posts): 18% positive · 37% neutral · 45% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
Ryan Silverfield took over as Arkansas's head coach, replacing Sam Pittman. It is replaces 6-year head coach Sam Pittman (32-34). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is divided, and believers and skeptics both cite evidence.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
This event was in 230 of 8115 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (374 posts): 18% positive · 37% neutral · 45% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Arkansas is an entire state's only major program — no in-state rival, a fanbase scattered nationwide that all answers the same Hog Call — chasing the first real glory since a national title sixty years gone, now under a brand-new coach.
Hog fans say the bluebloods of the SEC have spent thirty years treating Arkansas as a guaranteed win on the schedule, the league's outsider with no neighbor to lean on, and they call the Hogs…
Arkansas · Game-day weather
Typical at Razorback Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm Saturdays 86
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 111 at noon, 111 at 3:30 pm, 112 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Arkansas is the program with no in-state rival and the most-spread-out fanbase in the SEC.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Arkansas · 2026