Missouri 34-10 Arkansas (Oct 31, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Missouri · Arkansas

No. 23 Missouri6-234

Arkansas3-510Final

Sat, Oct 31 · Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark. · Crowd 65,117

No. 23 Missouri beat Arkansas 34-10.

We had Missouri favored. It won.

Next: Missouri vs Texas, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET · Missouri underdog by 2.5

Next: Arkansas at Auburn, Sat Nov 7 · 12:45 PM ET · Arkansas underdog by 10.5

Nothing like a good muff on the field on a Saturday night.

A Missouri fan

How it swung

The turning point: Arkansas fumbles, Smith returns it for a TD, Missouri leads 10-0 (Q1, 3:41). Missouri went from 63% to 82% to win. Fans right then: “Now that's arkansas football” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Missouri an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (Missouri was a 10.5-point favorite) put it at 80%.

Favored the whole way: Missouri never fell below 58%.

Arkansas never had better than a 41% chance.

Fumble return TD

Missouri · Q1 3:41

FinalMissouri 34-10 ArkansasMissouri wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.2 in of rain

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 9:24InterceptionJackson intercepted by Greco at the MIZ35, returned 22 yardsMissouri 62% → 79% (+17)
2Q1 3:41Fumble4th and 1Arkansas fumbles, Smith returns it for a TD, Missouri leads 10-0Missouri 63% → 82% (+19)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 9:24InterceptionJackson intercepted by Greco at the MIZ35, returned 22 yardsArkansas 38% → 21% (−17)
2Q1 3:41Fumble4th and 1Arkansas fumbles, Smith returns it for a TD, Missouri leads 10-0Arkansas 37% → 18% (−19)

Did the ref just have a mini stroke mid call?

Q4 10:40 · A Missouri fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 4:16A fumble led to a touchdown in a comical way.Now that's arkansas footballr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:41The headsets stopped working during the game.Headsetgate 🙃r/CFB game thread
Q4 10:40Officials overturn fumble call on Roberts run, fans mock ref's hesitationThis ref might want to retirer/CFB game thread
Q4 9:22Fans mock the referee's performance after Arkansas personal foul penaltyArkansas football is just dumb.r/CFB game threadFive personal fouls is pretty unacceptabler/CFB game thread

Missouri’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Missouri -10.5), at 72% for Missouri (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Arkansas or Missouri flair (224 and 377); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.2 in of rain is more than fell in 99% of games since 2018. Measured at Fayetteville/drake airport, 4.4 miles away. Full conditions below.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Missouri’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Missouri scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Arkansas on 2 of its 11.

Missouri’s drives are teal, Arkansas’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Arkansas’s side

Arkansas’s best moment: Craig 31-yd field goal, Missouri goes ahead 3-0 (Q1 5:33). It lifted Arkansas’s win chance by 15 points.

How Arkansas fans took it: “Honestly I was hoping he'd take that to the house.” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans peaked in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

Missouri’s chance to make the playoff rose from 20% to 23%.

Make the playoff

Missouri · won20% → ▲23%

Arkansas · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Missouri · won1% → ▲2%

Arkansas · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Missouri plays vs Texas on Sat Nov 7 with a 23% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Missouri 34, Arkansas 10

Missouri covered −10.5 by 13.5. The total, 44, stayed under 48.5.

Team totals	Missouri	Arkansas
Total yards	390	288
Passing	20 of 31, 179 yds	20 of 34, 229 yds
Rushing	35 for 211 yds	36 for 59 yds
First downs	22	18
Third down	6 of 13	8 of 17
Fourth down	2 of 3	2 of 4
Turnovers	1	4
Penalties	9 for 80 yds	7 for 85 yds
Time of possession	31:45	28:15

Missouri leaders

Passing Austin Simmons 20 of 31, 179 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Jamal Roberts 23 for 138 yds, 1 TD; Ahmad Hardy 3 for 42 yds
Receiving Cayden Lee 6 for 78 yds; Donovan Olugbode 5 for 50 yds, 1 TD

Arkansas leaders

Passing KJ Jackson 20 of 34, 229 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Cam Settles 12 for 38 yds; KJ Jackson 13 for 33 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Antonio Jordan 7 for 106 yds; CJ Brown 4 for 37 yds

Rain for part of the game

61° at kickoff · 0.2 in of rain · wind 3 mph from the east-northeast, gusts to 13

0.2 in of rain is more than fell in 99% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

In the game thread, fans talked about the rain.

October game-day temperatures at Razorback Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 3:41 left7:21 p.m.

Missouri 10, Arkansas 0 · Arkansas 18% to win

rain 0.02 in per 10 minutes · wind 6 mph from the east-northeast · 61°

Arkansas fumbles, Smith returns it for a TD, Missouri leads 10-0

The same game in two conditions

	Heavier rain	Light rain or none
Runs and passes	44	37
Share that were passes	57%	57%
Yards per play	5.1	5.9
Turnovers	3	0

The numbers are small: read it as a description, not a result.

How this is counted

Heavier rain means 0.02 inch or more in 10 minutes at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Fayetteville/drake airport, 4.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

This is Battle Line Rivalry — see the full head-to-head history →

Recent games

Last three games

Missouri · 5-2

Rated 38th in our preseason ratings, 34th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 28-point win over Florida as a 5.5-point underdog.

L 3-31 @ Ole MissTop 25 No. 12 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 4-point underdog

W 27-6 vs Texas A&MTop 25 No. 24 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 45-17 vs FloridaTop 25 No. 16 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 24-31 @ Mississippi StateTop 25 No. 63 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 27-17 vs Troy No. 113 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 26.5-point favorite

W 38-21 @ Kansas No. 78 of 668 teams

won by 17 as a 4-point favorite

W 54-14 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff No. 250 of 668 teams

won by 40 as a 55.5-point favorite

Last three games

Arkansas · 3-4

Rated 145th in our preseason ratings, 102nd now, up 43 spots.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 10-point win over Vanderbilt as a 5.5-point underdog.

W 31-21 @ Vanderbilt No. 72 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 17-24 vs TennesseeTop 25 No. 30 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 7-34 @ Texas A&MTop 25 No. 17 of 668 teams

lost by 27 as a 13.5-point underdog

W 34-6 vs Tulsa No. 109 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 7-point favorite

L 17-45 vs GeorgiaTop 25 No. 2 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 24.5-point underdog

L 10-43 @ UtahTop 25 No. 29 of 668 teams

lost by 33 as a 13.5-point underdog

W 31-14 vs North Alabama No. 206 of 668 teams

won by 17 as a 40.5-point favorite

Week by week

Arkansas

Wk 3Lvs Georgia17-45
Wk 4Wvs Tulsa34-6
Wk 5Lat Texas A&M7-34
Wk 6Lvs Tennessee17-24
Wk 7Wat Vanderbilt31-21

Missouri

Wk 3Wvs Troy27-17
Wk 4Lat Mississippi State24-31
Wk 5Wvs Florida45-17
Wk 6Wvs Texas A&M27-6
Wk 7Lat Ole Miss3-31

Power rating by week

Missouri is rated 8.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Arkansas’s rushing EPA against Missouri, 66 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Arkansas’s EPA/play against Missouri’s defense
Arkansas offense, 16th percentile · Missouri defense, 74th
Arkansas’s rushing EPA against Missouri’s defense
Arkansas offense, 5th percentile · Missouri defense, 71st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MissouriArkansas

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Missouri leads the series 13-4

17 meetings since 1906 · Missouri has won the last 4

2025Missouri 31-17
2024Missouri 28-21
2023Missouri 48-14
2022Missouri 29-27
2021Arkansas 34-17

Each line is Arkansas’s chance to win through that meeting. Arkansas is 0-4 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Missouri fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (48th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Missouri favored by 10.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Missouri by 10.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Arkansas is worth +1.9 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 15th percentile.

37% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (19-32 home, 8-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.8 at home vs. away over 93 games — outside the ±5.6 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 222 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Missouri 50, Arkansas 48Dec 5, 2020

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2017.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Arkansas14th1-3
Missouri10th2-2

Full SEC standings

No. 23 Missouri beats Arkansas 34-10