money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Eli Stowers is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Vanderbilt
2-0Latest
SEC · Clark Lea, year 6 (28-36) · FirstBank Stadium · 40,351 · 35,000 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#44 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #27 (+12.1) · FPI #39
The marketVanderbilt by 3vs NC State · our model 56% Vanderbilt · a number, not a pick
LastW 35–26 vs Delaware · Sat Sep 12 · C.J. Heard 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 8 tackles
Nextvs NC State · Sat Sep 19 · 12:45 pm ET · FirstBank Stadium · Vanderbilt by 3 · series 2-1, last win 2012 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Vanderbilt · 2026 schedule & results2-0
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #45 | #118 | -29✗ | Austin Peay | W 28–9 109 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #44 | #43 | -20.5✗ | Delaware | W 35–26 137 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #44 | #47 | -3 | NC State | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #44 | #61 | @Auburn | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Georgia | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Ole Miss | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Arkansas | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Kentucky | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Mississippi State | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Alabama | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Florida | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Tennessee |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Delaware | W 35–26 | 339 | 1 | 28:40 | -0.030 | 37.5% | 118.4% | |
| Sep 5 | Austin Peay | W 28–9 | 396 | 0 | 35:47 | +0.283 | 47.6% | 106.2% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 368 | 0.5 | +0.126 | 42.6% | 112.3% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Vanderbilt is the program that turned a transfer quarterback nobody else wanted into a Heisman finalist and the SEC's best story — a 10-win season the school's own history said was impossible.
Title DroughtSince 1923 · 103 yrs
Every preseason poll buries Vanderbilt by reflex, and the fanbase has heard 'the scheme called it a scheduling accident' so often it became the program's dry punchline. They say 2025 wasn't luck — it…
moderate signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 10-3 · last season
Game feel61shootoutscombined pts / game3rd highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate3-2some dramain one-score games (5 of 13)9th most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin+15.6comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo62methodicaloffensive plays / game16th fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.43highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)1st most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd34,813avg attendance16th biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Vanderbilt has won four of its last five.
Warming. 7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Streak W2Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs NC State · at home
Season line5.5 winsover +105
EliteSoftGives up the big play
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total2 booksO/U 5.5
CFP championship#28 in field+12500
SEC title#13 in market+9400
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Vanderbilt · the story right now
6 storylines developing
What Vanderbilt's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Eli Stowers is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Richie Hoskins is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Tre Richardson is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Vanderbilt leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 10-3 record is the story Clark Lea has to answer in the SEC this year.
what happenedVanderbilt enters 2026 rated No. 11 in 2025 SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Vanderbilt leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the top-quintile returning production fuels Clark Lea's fifth-year push to validate its No. 13 AP finish.
what happenedVanderbilt enters 2025 rated No. 11 in SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downVanderbilt's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downVanderbilt's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Vanderbilt · 2026
Outcome band · Vanderbilt · 2026Vanderbilt's most likely season is 9-4 — a bowl game. The floor is 6-7; the ceiling is 11-2.
Floor 6-7Ceiling 11-2Base 9-4
0 wins13 wins
Floor6-7A bowl game, 3 fewer wins.
Base9-4A bowl game.
Ceiling11-2A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Vanderbilt · Season outlook Confidence
Vanderbilt climbed into the top 25. Now the schedule has to agree.
Vanderbilt enters 2026 rated No. 11 in 2025 SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. A top-25 rating means the tape backed the ranking over three seasons. Now the schedule tests whether it still does. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 13% volume · negative overall
The saga so far~7 months old
last weekVanderbilt reveals football depth chart — Reported
2 weeks agoVanderbilt releases post-camp defensive depth chart — Reported
3 weeks agoQB battle update given — Reported
4 weeks agoQB battle update at Vanderbilt — Reported
Jun 27Corey Laga commits to Vanderbilt — Official
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Vanderbilt leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 10-3 record is the story Clark Lea has to answer in the SEC this year.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a major jump in the model is the expectations tax: a season that would have read as a breakthrough last year now reads as meeting the floor. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Vanderbilt enters 2026 rated No. 11 in 2025 SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024 — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers4 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Vanderbilt Football | Another Sellout, Another Win”
Vanderbilt Commodores · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Football: Three takeaways from Vanderbilt’s win over Delaware”
The Vanderbilt Hustler · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“How Jayvontay Conner is Becoming a Reliable Target for Vanderbilt Football”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards13% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (72%).›
This event was in 139 of 1072 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I am applying to the Cornelius and Ingram scholarships, but you apply to the scholarships through ApplyVU, Vanderbilt's own admission portal; I believe you gain access after submit"
r/Vanderbilt ~ fan take
"Hi! I’m a New York Posse Semi-Finalist considering ranking Vanderbilt. My family has some questions about campus culture, safety, and the experience of Black students at Vanderbilt"
r/Vanderbilt ~ fan take
Board health this week (212 posts): 13% positive · 54% neutral · 33% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Vanderbilt · Season outlook Confidence
Vanderbilt climbed into the top 25. Now the schedule has to agree.
Vanderbilt enters 2025 rated No. 11 in SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. A top-25 rating means the tape backed the ranking over three seasons. Now the schedule tests whether it still does. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 13% volume · negative overall
The saga so far~7 months old
last weekVanderbilt reveals football depth chart — Reported
2 weeks agoVanderbilt releases post-camp defensive depth chart — Reported
3 weeks agoQB battle update given — Reported
4 weeks agoQB battle update at Vanderbilt — Reported
Jun 27Corey Laga commits to Vanderbilt — Official
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Vanderbilt leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the top-quintile returning production fuels Clark Lea's fifth-year push to validate its No. 13 AP finish.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a major jump in the model is the expectations tax: a season that would have read as a breakthrough last year now reads as meeting the floor. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Vanderbilt enters 2025 rated No. 11 in SP+ (+20.3), up 39 spots from 2024 — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers4 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Vanderbilt Football | Another Sellout, Another Win”
Vanderbilt Commodores · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Football: Three takeaways from Vanderbilt’s win over Delaware”
The Vanderbilt Hustler · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“How Jayvontay Conner is Becoming a Reliable Target for Vanderbilt Football”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards13% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (72%).›
This event was in 139 of 1072 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I am applying to the Cornelius and Ingram scholarships, but you apply to the scholarships through ApplyVU, Vanderbilt's own admission portal; I believe you gain access after submit"
r/Vanderbilt ~ fan take
"Hi! I’m a New York Posse Semi-Finalist considering ranking Vanderbilt. My family has some questions about campus culture, safety, and the experience of Black students at Vanderbilt"
r/Vanderbilt ~ fan take
Board health this week (212 posts): 13% positive · 54% neutral · 33% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Rival pulse
Tennessee
Mixed-3
Tennessee-Vanderbilt
Missouri
Uneasy-14
Vanderbilt-Missouri
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Vanderbilt is the program that is not supposed to be here, and is.
Offense: EliteDefense: SoftDefensive shape: Gives up the big play
Open questions
The story
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 11Fell to No. 15 in the AP Top 25Week 10 · Lost 31-34 at Texas
- 2025 · Wk 9Climbed to No. 10 in the AP Top 25Week 8 · Won 31-24 at home over LSU
- 2025 · Wk 7Fell to No. 20 in the AP Top 25Week 6 · Lost 14-30 at Alabama
- 2025 · Wk 4Entered the AP Top 25Week 3 · Won 31-7 at South Carolina
Roster
Roster Reload - Vanderbilt
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production35%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#42 nationally247 composite 727.4
Portal Additions18Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses20Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#33Development class
WRin 2 - Ja'Cory Thomasout 5 - Tre RichardsonStarter Risk
current room: 184 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Deep Threat2025 profilebeats you over the top
our read Two-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile
TEin 3 - Jayvontay Connerout 2 - Witt EdwardsUpgrade
current room: 238 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Complete TEshows up in the passing game from any alignment
EDGEin 3 - Brian Allenout 1 - Linus ZunkNeed Filled
Versatile End2025 profileholds up snap after snap without a weakness to attack
Homegrown
Sin 1 - Ricardo Jonesout 3 - Chris TangeloStarter Risk
current room: 193 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Centerfielder2025 profileTakeaway threaterases the deep middle of the field the kind of DB who takes it back the other way
Next man up
Full roster (117 players)
CBBishop Starling, Blaine McClure, Cayden Daniels, Cobey Sellers, Jack Wanzung, Jaylin Davies, Jaylin Lackey, Jeremy Garner II, Jordan Matthews, Martel Hight, Mustafa Dannett
DLAaron Bryant, Bradley Mann, Glenn Seabrooks, Hayden Bray, Jaylon Stone, Nikhil Jefferson, Noah Sigda, Simeon Boulware, Talan Carter, Yilanan Ouattara
EDGEBrian Allen, CJ Jackson, Edwin Kolenge, Jace McCallum, Jake Stanish, Mason Carter, Miles Capers, Myles Miller
LBAustin Howard, Bryan Longwell, Bryce Cowan, Daniel Vollmer Jr., Jamison Curtis, Josiah Broxton, Kene Obi, Luke D'Alise, Nicholas Rinaldi, Tate Hamby, Ty Bartholomew
OLBeau Johnson, CJ Williams, Cade McConnell, Clinton Azubuike, George Williams-Haseotes, Gunner Givens, Keegan Wechsler, Kevo Wesley, Lyndon Cooper, Max Fisher, Micah DeBose, Michael Smith, Mitchell Smith, Nate Fleming, Orion Irving, Pulelei'ite Primus, Ted Gregoire, Tripp Skewes
RBEvan Hampton, Gabe Fields, Izayah Lee, Jake Balis, Jamezell Lassiter, Makhilyn Young, Sedrick Alexander
SBradley Brown, C.J. Heard, Carson Lawrence, Davin Chandler, Dontae Carter, Jailen Ruth, Jalen Gilbert, Mason Lewis, Payne Daniel, Ricardo Jones, Thomas Jones, Vanzale Hinton
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Vanderbilt
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Vanderbilt reveals football depth chart
Depth chart surprises matter more when you've jumped 39 spots in SP+ — Lea's WR room is the pressure point, and whoever earned a spot ahead of expectations just became the most important name on that sheet.
- News
Vanderbilt releases post-camp defensive depth chart
Defensive depth chart drops post-camp and the real question is whether the 39-spot SP+ jump built enough depth behind a unit losing one drafted piece — the projection tells you where Lea still has work to do.
- News
QB battle update given
Second scrimmage done and Lea still won't name a starter — in a 39-spot SP+ jump program, the QB competition being unresolved this late is either a good problem or a quiet warning.
- News
QB battle update at Vanderbilt
Clark Lea opened practice and nobody locked it down — a 39-spot SP+ climb means Vanderbilt can't afford a question mark at the position that runs everything else.
- Recruiting
Corey Laga commits to Vanderbilt
Lea's been preaching depth all offseason — WR room had real pressure behind the top end, and Laga adds a body who can compete for snaps before the SEC slate hits.
- Portal
CB Jaylin Davies transfer commits from Oklahoma State
Big-12 corner to SEC — Davies's snap count fell off in Stillwater, Lea's defense gives him the room.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-6.6 net portal points
(raw ledger: -9.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR-12.3
starter risk
EDGE+7.5
need filled
S-7.4
starter risk
RB-7.0
starter risk
QB-6.7
starter risk
TE+6.3
IOL+3.9
DL+3.6
CB+3.5
LB-3.5
low confidence
LS+1.0
low confidence
P+1.0
low confidence
OT+0.3
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★★
Jared Curtis
#4 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical quarterback — 11 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Mitchell Smith
#360 national
★★★★☆
Collin Flanigan
#365 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
24
TX · 6TN · 4MS · 3AL · 1AZ · 1CA · 1CO · 1FL · 1+6 more
TX leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 14 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
81 signees across 24 states, 2023-2026. TN leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Vanderbilt player grew up 420 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
35th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%215–663 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi14%15 of 111 players
Farthest1,963 miConor Weasler · Kentfield, CA
Closest2 miJunior Sherrill · Nashville, TN
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to FirstBank Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 111 of 117 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Vanderbilt Defeats LSU 31-24
[Game Thread] LSU @ Vanderbilt (12:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Belief history
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
40th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
40th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Fans 14pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 2 books
Takeaways
Takeaway conversion
Converting 20% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
2 interceptions of 10 disrupted passes (8 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
Losing the penalty battle: 15 penalties committed vs. 6 drawn on opponents, a 66-yard deficit.
109 penalty yards committed vs. 43 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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