SEC Vanderbilt

Head coach Clark Lea · 6th season · 29-41 at Vanderbilt

Record3-50-5 SEC · 16th
Bowl3 wins to goto bowl eligibility
Nextat Mississippi StateSat Nov 7 · 4:15 pm ET · SEC Network

The rest of the season

Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Mississippi State 41%

Win out <1% · expect 0.7 of 4 more wins

Vanderbilt's chance to win each game left, from our model: Mississippi State 41%, Alabama 7%, Florida 12%, Tennessee 15%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 72% to 9%, peaking at 72% before a game

72%62%W56%W64%W53%L49%L29%L11%L9%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

Standing16th in the SEC · 0-5 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Jared Curtis 1,489 · Rushing Sedrick Alexander 274 · Receiving Junior Sherrill 706 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#77 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #77 (-1.4) · FPI #71
The marketMississippi State by 3Betting line at Mississippi State · our model 41% Vanderbilt

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8

Follow Vanderbilt:athletics siteSECYouTube

Schedule and results

Vanderbilt · 2026 schedule and results3-5Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 64% · 3 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #45 to #72
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#45#118−29.5✗ −10.5Austin PeayW 28-9 109Vanderbilt won 28-9 vs Austin Peay. Chance to win started at 98%, low 93%, high better than 99%.1-00-0Pass Berlowitz 149 · Rush Alexander 60 · Rec Sherrill 70
2Sep 12#44#43−20.5✗ −11.5DelawareW 35-26 137Vanderbilt won 35-26 vs Delaware. Chance to win started at 93%, low 79%, high better than 99%.2-00-0Pass Curtis 210 · Rush Alexander 39 · Rec Sherrill 94
3Sep 19#44#47−3✓ +1NC StateW 35-31 1373-00-0Pass Curtis 277 · Rush Curtis 64 · Rec Sherrill 108
4Sep 26#42#60+10✓ +4@AuburnL 15-21 133Vanderbilt lost 15-21 at Auburn. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 28%.3-10-1Pass Curtis 199 · Rush Young 46 · Rec Sherrill 95
5Oct 3#46#1+25.5✓ +1.5@GeorgiaL 14-38 117Vanderbilt lost 14-38 at Georgia. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 6%.3-20-2Pass Berlowitz 190 · Rush Berlowitz 37 · Rec Sherrill 107
6Oct 10#43#21+9.5✗ −25.5Ole MissL 17-52 139Vanderbilt lost 17-52 vs Ole Miss. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 36%.3-30-3Pass Curtis 222 · Rush Young 37 · Rec Thomas 60
7Oct 17#57#118−5.5✗ −15.5ArkansasL 21-31 132Vanderbilt lost 21-31 vs Arkansas. Chance to win started at 75%, low under 1%, high 86%.3-40-4Pass Curtis 274 · Rush Alexander 57 · Rec Sherrill 99
8Oct 24#72#39+9.5✗ −7.5@KentuckyL 17-34 118Vanderbilt lost 17-34 at Kentucky. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 53%.3-50-5Pass Curtis 247 · Rush Lassiter 6 · Rec Sherrill 78
9Bye week
10Nov 7#81#92+3@Mississippi State4:15 pm ET · SEC Network41% to win
11Nov 14#80#8Alabamatime TBA · SEC Network7% to win
12Nov 21@Floridatime TBA12% to win
13Nov 28+3Tennesseetime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Vanderbilt, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Vanderbilt: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 24@KentuckyL 17-34262228:57+0.07438.2%1.66
Oct 17ArkansasL 21-31390226:13+0.10243.5%1.27
Oct 10Ole MissL 17-52343433:56-0.11538.7%1.28Blowout loss
Oct 3@GeorgiaL 14-38293127:12+0.15634.0%1.67Most explosive
Sep 26@AuburnL 15-21311137:32-0.14536.7%1.08Season-low EPA/play
Sep 19NC StateW 35-31409324:11+0.40346.6%1.50Season-high EPA/play
Sep 12DelawareW 35-26339128:40-0.08537.5%1.10Best defensive stand
Sep 5Austin PeayW 28-9396035:47+0.28347.6%1.06Best success rate
Season average (8 games)3431.8+0.08440.3%1.33

Vanderbilt's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line4.5 winsover +320
Offense softExplosive, big-playDefense poor

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 4.5
CFP championship#28 in field+28,000
SEC title#13 in market+9,400

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

L 17-34 at Kentucky

Vanderbilt fans
r/CFB
“That’s maybe his 10th best throw of the year… he’s for sure leaving in the portal”
1w ago
r/CFB
“I'm just hoping for a clean game. I've given up on this season for anything more than developing for the future.”
1w ago
Kentucky fans on Vanderbilt
r/wildcats
“[Tailgate Thread] Vanderbilt @ UK - Tonight 7:30 PM ET - SEC Network”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 14AP #9 Alabamavs Alabama · at home
Sat Nov 21AP #25 Floridaat Florida · on the road
Sat Nov 28Tennessee-Vanderbiltvs AP #16 Tennessee · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Vanderbilt has lost five straight.

4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last five.

Streak L5Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 4-6
Scam messages happen all the time, especially when a chat’s been quiet for a bit
Parkes · Vanderbilthustlerthe day after Vanderbilt's 2026 game against Kentucky

Playoff chance, day by day

<1% now

020%<1%High 15%, Aug 31Aug 31Nov 4

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

Range of outcomes · Vanderbilt · 2026

Vanderbilt’s most likely regular season is 4-8. 99% of outcomes land from 3-9 to 5-7.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

3 wins 41%; 4 wins 44%; 5 wins 13%; 6 wins 1%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor5-8A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling8-5A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 53 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5

Game feel53even gamescombined pts / game9th highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate1-1some dramain one-score games (2 of 8)9th most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin-7.5outgunnedavg scoring margin15th best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo63methodicaloffensive plays / game14th fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.33highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)3rd most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd35,000avg attendance16th biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Vanderbilt is the program that turned a transfer quarterback nobody else wanted into a Heisman finalist and the SEC's best story — a 10-win season the school's own history said was impossible.

Title DroughtSince 1923 · 103 yrs

Every preseason poll buries Vanderbilt by reflex, and the fanbase has heard 'the scheme called it a scheduling accident' so often it became the program's dry punchline. They say 2025 wasn't luck —…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

Vanderbilt · Game-day weather

Typical at FirstBank Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, noon Saturdays 88

  • noon: 88, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 111 at noon, 110 at 3:30 pm, 90 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Vanderbilt is the program that is not supposed to be here, and is.

Offense: SoftStyle: Explosive, big-playDefense: Poor
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

The story

Follow the Vanderbilt storyline →
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025 · Wk 11Fell to No. 15 in the AP Top 25Week 10 · Lost 31-34 at Texas↓6 · from No. 9
  • 2025 · Wk 9Climbed to No. 10 in the AP Top 25Week 8 · Won 31-24 at home over LSU↑7 · from No. 17
  • 2025 · Wk 7Fell to No. 20 in the AP Top 25Week 6 · Lost 14-30 at Alabama↓4 · from No. 16
  • 2025 · Wk 4Entered the AP Top 25Week 3 · Won 31-7 at South Carolinaat No. 20

Roster and recruiting

Roster35% of production back, talent #42

Roster reload: Vanderbilt

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production35%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#42 nationally247 composite 727.4
Portal Additions18Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses20Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1), 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#33Development class
WRin 2 - Ja'Cory Thomas4.00out 5 - Tre Richardson4.38Starter Risk
current room: 184 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession ReceiverMoney-downmoves the chains on third down lives on the sticks and moves the chains
Junior-college recruit
TEin 3 - Jayvontay Conner3.90out 2 - Witt Edwards3.50Upgrade
current room: 238 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Complete TEshows up in the passing game from any alignment
Third program
EDGEin 3 - Brian Allen4.12out 1 - Linus Zunk3.70Need Filled
Versatile End2025 profileholds up snap after snap without a weakness to attack
Homegrown
Sin 1 - Ricardo Jones3.70out 3 - Chris Tangelo4.28Starter Risk
current room: 193 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickelmoves between deep coverage and the slot
Transferred in
IOLin 2 - Micah DeBose3.70out 1 - Cooper Starks3.40Upgrade
current room: 315 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 2 - Mike Diatta3.60out 1 - Terry Nwabuisi-Ezeala3.50Upgrade
current room: 293 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
TE · departedEli Stowers4★ · Rd 2, Pk 22
NowCameran Dickson3★ · FR
Next man up
Full roster (117 players)
CBBishop Starling, Blaine McClure, Cayden Daniels, Cobey Sellers, Jack Wanzung, Jaylin Davies, Jaylin Lackey, Jeremy Garner II, Jordan Matthews, Martel Hight, Mustafa Dannett
DEKhalil Poteat
DLAaron Bryant, Bradley Mann, Glenn Seabrooks, Hayden Bray, Jaylon Stone, Nikhil Jefferson, Noah Sigda, Simeon Boulware, Talan Carter, Yilanan Ouattara
DTCameron Stepp, Daryl Campbell, Jiaming Cao, Michael Diatta
EDGEBrian Allen, CJ Jackson, Edwin Kolenge, Jace McCallum, Jake Stanish, Mason Carter, Miles Capers, Myles Miller
FBGabe Fisher
LBAustin Howard, Bryan Longwell, Bryce Cowan, Daniel Vollmer Jr., Jamison Curtis, Josiah Broxton, Kene Obi, Luke D'Alise, Nicholas Rinaldi, Tate Hamby, Ty Bartholomew
LSKaden Schickel, Stone Owens
OLBeau Johnson, CJ Williams, Cade McConnell, Clinton Azubuike, George Williams-Haseotes, Gunner Givens, Keegan Wechsler, Kevo Wesley, Lyndon Cooper, Max Fisher, Micah DeBose, Michael Smith, Mitchell Smith, Nate Fleming, Orion Irving, Pulelei'ite Primus, Ted Gregoire, Tripp Skewes
PConor Weasler, Tyler Ebel
PKBrock Taylor, Joe Daniel, Justin Dewers
QBBlaze Berlowitz, Drew Cowart, Jack Elliott, Jared Curtis, Walter Taylor III, Whit Muschamp
RBEvan Hampton, Gabe Fields, Izayah Lee, Jake Balis, Jamezell Lassiter, Makhilyn Young, Sedrick Alexander
SBradley Brown, C.J. Heard, Carson Lawrence, Davin Chandler, Dontae Carter, Jailen Ruth, Jalen Gilbert, Mason Lewis, Payne Daniel, Ricardo Jones, Thomas Jones, Vanzale Hinton
TEAdam Gehm, Cole Spence, Elijah Rooney, Jayvontay Conner, Maurice Veney, Palmer Riley, Tilden Riley
WRBrycen Coleman, Cameran Dickson, Claiborne Richards, Cole Adams, Ja'Cory Thomas, Joseph McVay, Junior Sherrill, Kahden Smith, Kayleb Barnett, Lebron Hill, Owen Cabell, Tristen Brown, Ty Burd, Wils Jackson
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
Matthew Smith
QB · Rancho Santa Margarita, CA
#1457 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

2026 John A. Merritt Classic football game moved to Vanderbilt's FirstBank Stadium (Tennessee State-Jackson State)
26 upvotes · Jun 2026
2027 4* OT Jasper Ngokwere commits to Vanderbilt
24 upvotes · Jun 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 83% of FBS programs
↑

Fan confidence higher than any point since 2021

83rd percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market↑
83rd
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
4.5
Sportsbook win total
(14th among FBS)
Fans 69pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
RivalsRival pulse: Tennessee hopeful

Rival pulse

Tennessee
Hopeful
+6
Tennessee-Vanderbilt
Missouri
Mixed
-1
Vanderbilt-Missouri

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Vanderbilt

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site