Next game: at Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s best edge on Vanderbilt is staying on schedule
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Vanderbilt offense against Mississippi State defense
Mississippi State offense against Vanderbilt defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.25 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 128 / 197 | 65.0 | 1489 | 7.6 | 8 | 8 | 133.7 | 45 | 57.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 197 pass attempts and 63 carries in 7 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Curtis operates within the system without forcing anything. Russell is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.0 58th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate4.1% bottom 9th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jared Curtis's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.20 EPA/play | 1 | 5 | 28 / 53 | 52.8 | 386 | 7.3 | 1 | 1 | 116.5 | 52 | 50.9 | 6.6 | 1.9 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.19 EPA/play | 28 | 8 | 64 | 274 | 4.3 | 5 | 18 | 17.5 | 12.7 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 64 carries and 14 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Alexander wins in space out of the backfield. Brown is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Receiving share17.9% 91th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate7.8% 87th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sedrick Alexander's full player page | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.03 EPA/play | 22 | 8 | 55 | 214 | 3.9 | 2 | 34 | 20.4 | 9.3 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 55 carries and 10 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Young wins in space out of the backfield. Brown is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Receiving share15.4% 81th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.6 bottom 27th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Makhilyn Young's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.06 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 23 | 88 | 3.8 | 1 | 17 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.76 EPA/play | — | 8 | 49 | 706 #20 FBS | 14.4 | 4 #70 FBS | 60 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Money-downRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Impact starter — 49 catches and 2 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too This week's matchup — WR Sherrill wins underneath on volume and route precision. Brooks is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume49 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)45.8 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Junior Sherrill's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.89 EPA/play | 6 | 6 | 15 | 230 | 15.3 | 2 | 39 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR Thomas moves the chains on third down. Brooks is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception14.7 64th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Ja'Cory Thomas's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.54 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 15 | 176 | 11.7 | 0 | 33 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Brown moves the chains on third down. Brooks is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception13.2 bottom 47th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tristen Brown's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.36 EPA/play | 8 | 5 | 15 | 166 | 11.1 | 1 | 31 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 15 catches in 5 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jayvontay Conner's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.77 EPA/play | 16 | 5 | 11 | 121 | 11 | 0 | 27 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE Spence shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Edwards is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception10.7 bottom 47th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 13th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cole Spence's full player page | ||||||||
| -0.03 EPA/play | 7 | 5 | 5 | 58 | 11.6 | 0 | 22 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.17 EPA/play | 13 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 | 12 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 94 | 6 | 19 | 8 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 19 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight308 lb 80th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bradley Mann's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 6 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 19 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.5% bottom 34th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Talan Carter's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 53 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 19 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight340 lb 98th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Glenn Seabrooks's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 5 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% bottom 41th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Yilanan Ouattara's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 92 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight306 lb 77th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaylon Stone's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 24 | 8 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Starter — 52 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.6% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume52 79th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nicholas Rinaldi's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 8 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 51 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Bryan Longwell's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 22 | 8 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume35 bottom 44th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bryce Cowan's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 29 | 6 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 20 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2021 class View Miles Capers's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 17 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 18 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Edwin Kolenge's full player page | |||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 8 | 8 | 62 | 6 #43 FBS | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 62 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume62 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View C.J. Heard's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 8 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 36 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ricardo Jones's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 25 | 8 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 31 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.1% 86th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Mason Lewis's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 26 | 7 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Cayden Daniels's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 21 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.1% 57th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Davin Chandler's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 4 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Martel Hight's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 6 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Jordan Matthews's full player pageHeight6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| 9 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 8 | 7/9 | 77.8 | 21/21 | 42 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 37 | 8 | 30 | 1387 | 46.2 | 64 | 11 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.76 EPA/play | — | 8 | 6 | 143 | 23.8 | 0 | 33 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cover Corner | 4 | 7 | 8 | 111 | 13.9 | 0 | 45 |
Biggest plays from Vanderbilt’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Vanderbilt’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:00 · Vanderbilt down 3, takes the leadCayden Daniels recovers a fumble in the end zone for a touchdownNC State at Vanderbilt, week 3Q4, 0:00 · Vanderbilt 35, NC State 310:00Go-ahead fumble return touchdown for Vanderbilt with 0:00 left0:00Go-ahead fumble return touchdown for Vanderbilt with 0:00 leftGo-ahead fumble return touchdown for Vanderbilt with 0:00 leftCayden Daniels 0 yd Fumble Return (Brock Taylor Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q4, 1:04 · Vanderbilt down 3Brody Barnhardt intercepts Jared CurtisNC State at Vanderbilt, week 3Q4, 1:04 · Vanderbilt 28, NC State 31▼23%Vanderbilt’s chance to win, 60% to 37%▼23%Vanderbilt’s chance to win, 60% to 37%J.Curtis pass intercepted by B.Barnhardt at NCS02, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
Q4, 3:46 · Vanderbilt down 7Miguel Mitchell intercepts Jared CurtisArkansas at Vanderbilt, week 7Q4, 3:46 · Vanderbilt 21, Arkansas 28Vanderbilt turned it over with 3:46 left, trailing by 7Vanderbilt turned it over with 3:46 left, trailing by 7J.Curtis pass intercepted by M.Mitchell at Ark31 QB hurried by H.Osborne and C.Jones, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Interception". CALL UPHELD▶Watch from this play- Q2, 6:16 · Arkansas down 7, ties itJaheim Johnson takes an interception 25 yards for a pick-sixArkansas at Vanderbilt, week 7Q2, 6:16 · Arkansas 7, Vanderbilt 725Pick-six25Pick-sixPick-sixJ.Curtis pass intercepted by J.Johnson at Vandy25 J.Johnson return 25 yards to the Vandy00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 6:18 · Vanderbilt down 10Jared Curtis finds Junior Sherrill for a 43-yard touchdownNC State at Vanderbilt, week 3Q4, 6:18 · Vanderbilt 28, NC State 31Junior Sherrill's first 100-yard receiving game of 2026Junior Sherrill's first 100-yard receiving game of 2026Junior Sherrill 43 yd pass from Jared Curtis (Brock Taylor Kick)▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 5:42 · Vanderbilt down 7, ties itMakhilyn Young runs 3 yards for a touchdownArkansas at Vanderbilt, week 7Q3, 5:42 · Vanderbilt 21, Arkansas 21Vanderbilt tied the game in the third quarterVanderbilt tied the game in the third quarterNo Huddle M.Young rush left for 3 yards gain to the Ark00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Vanderbilt lost to Arkansas after being 82% to win; the closest win was against NC State, down to 4%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Vanderbilt during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Vanderbilt
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · VanderbiltC.J. Heard leads Vanderbilt with 62 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+16 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Vanderbilt fields a limited explosive, big-play offense behind a porous, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Vanderbilt reads strongest in explosive plays (top 19%) and explosive plays allowed (top 28%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Vanderbilt sits at the 14th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Vanderbilt is worth +1.1 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom tenth of FBS, 6th percentile of 133 programs
41% at home, 23% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (20-29 home, 10-34 away). Interval ±4.4.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Vanderbilt has beaten the number by 6.7 points less at home than away over 101 games. That is outside the ±6.4 that many games can resolve, so this is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.
FirstBank Stadium seats 40,351 and has averaged 76% full (30,486, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 359 miles to get here since 2018 — 56th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 14% of the 2026 roster (15 of 111 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 57 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downEli Stowers is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatEli Stowers is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatRichie Hoskins is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatTre Richardson is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young split the carries (63/117 vs 54/117) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Junior Sherrill (WR) and Jayvontay Conner (TE) split the targets (63/91 vs 28/91) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jayvontay Conner produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Vanderbilt actually scores
26th percentile quality, 76th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Vanderbilt’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 27th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 48th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Vanderbilt hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
41st percentile success on standard downs, 32nd on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Vanderbilt by half
1st-half offense ranks 37th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 62nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Vanderbilt’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.08; 29th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.28 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Vanderbilt’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Vanderbilt’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.2% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 208-play sample) — mid-pack, 67 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Vanderbilt’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.2% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 190-play sample) — mid-pack, 115 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 29% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~48% league rate.
2 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 4 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 14% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
5 interceptions of 36 disrupted passes (31 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 70 penalties committed vs. 41 drawn on opponents, a 181-yard deficit.
530 penalty yards committed vs. 349 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Vanderbilt
Most similar programs · VanderbiltReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Vanderbilt’s breakout has happened before — and 1 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Usual during the game around Nov 13: 53°, between 42° and 65° in about 7 in 10 games (28 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 70°, and 8 in 10 ran between 50° and 79° (50 of 52 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.