The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Purdue 41%
Win out <1% · expect 0.9 of 4 more wins
Maryland's chance to win each game left, from our model: Purdue 41%, Wisconsin 17%, USC 9%, Penn State 19%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 67% to 2%, peaking at 91% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 17th in the Big Ten · 0-5 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Malik Washington 1,805 · Rushing DeJuan Williams 338 · Receiving Chris Durr Jr. 638 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Maryland:athletics siteBig TenX@umterpsYouTubeInstagram@marylandterrapins
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #76 | #260 | −45.5✓ +16.5 | Hampton | W 62-0 78 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Washington 186 · Rush Williams 116 · Rec Gladding 57 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #73 | #122 | −11.5✓ +12.5 | @UConn | W 38-14 130 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Washington 347 · Rush Howard 55 · Rec Gladding 130 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #65 | #43 | +2.5✗ −6.5 | Virginia Tech | L 26-35 139 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Washington 359 · Rush Dalton III 26 · Rec Durr Jr. 109 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #61 | #48 | +2.5✗ −48.5 | UCLA | L 3-54 132 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Washington 142 · Rush Howard 34 · Rec Durr Jr. 56 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #76 | #28 | +15.5✗ −9.5 | @Nebraska | L 23-48 144 | 2-3 | 0-2 | Pass Washington 254 · Rush Williams 78 · Rec Durr Jr. 149 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #97 | #2 | +31.5✓ +2.5 | @Ohio State | L 16-45 122 | 2-4 | 0-3 | Pass Washington 64 · Rush Williams 48 · Rec Durr Jr. 15 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #87 | #104 | −5.5✗ −12.5 | Rutgers | L 30-37 138 | 2-5 | 0-4 | Pass Washington 263 · Rush Washington 56 · Rec Durr Jr. 104 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #106 | #72 | +3= | Illinois | L 17-20 123 | 2-6 | 0-5 | Pass Washington 190 · Rush Williams 57 · Rec Durr Jr. 58 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #113 | #93 | +6 | @Purdue | 12:30 pm ET · BTN41% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #117 | #46 | Wisconsin | time TBA17% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @USC | time TBA9% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Penn State | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Maryland, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Maryland: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Illinois | L 17-20 | 288 | 2 | 30:14 | +0.048 | 37.9% | 1.32 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | Rutgers | L 30-37 | 378 | 0 | 24:08 | +0.158 | 42.4% | 1.39 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @Ohio State | L 16-45 | 146 | 0 | 25:21 | -0.238 | 23.2% | 0.86 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 3 | @Nebraska | L 23-48 | 395 | 2 | 25:36 | -0.176 | 30.0% | 1.55 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | UCLA | L 3-54 | 181 | 5 | 28:26 | -0.557 | 21.4% | 1.13 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Virginia Tech | L 26-35 | 423 | 0 | 23:21 | +0.313 | 51.5% | 1.20 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | @UConn | W 38-14 | 475 | 0 | 35:31 | +0.239 | 46.8% | 1.32 | |
| Sep 5 | Hampton | W 62-0 | 646 | 0 | 29:03 | +0.504 | 59.5% | 1.24 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 366 | 1.1 | +0.036 | 39.1% | 1.25 | ||||
Maryland's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last six.
It’s not the outcome that we wanted, but it has validated that the process that we have put into place is the right process. I think they understood that
<1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · Maryland · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 36%; 3 wins 45%; 4 wins 17%; 5 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-6
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Maryland has the most striking identity in college football — the state flag stitched into the jersey — and a team that keeps coming up short of letting the look mean what it could.
The fanbase watches the same DMV recruits it should own get pulled away by Ohio State and Penn State and Michigan, then sees those programs run the league — the sense that Maryland is a supplier to…
Maryland · Game-day weather
Typical at SECU Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 91 to 93
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 104 at noon, 102 at 3:30 pm, 102 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Maryland is the program with the most beautiful uniforms in CFB and the eternally rebuilding football team underneath.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
33rd percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Maryland · 2026