The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 6 Indiana 24%, No. 5 UCLA 33%
Win out 7% · expect 1.5 of 3 more wins
USC's chance to win each game left, from our model: Indiana 24%, Maryland 91%, UCLA 33%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.
Standing4th in the Big Ten · 4-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jayden Maiava 2,525 · Rushing King Miller 681 · Receiving Trent Mosley 512 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #28 | #151 | −37.5✗ −21.5 | San José State | W 42-26 132 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Maiava 286 · Rush Miller 63 · Rec Mosley 118 |
| 1 | Sep 4 | #28 | #53 | −21.5✓ +17.5 | Fresno State | W 39-0 112 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Maiava 349 · Rush Jordan 67 · Rec Mosley 104 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #30 | #35 | −30.5✗ −11.5 | Louisiana | W 49-30 123 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Maiava 261 · Rush Miller 128 · Rec Bowman 83 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #26 | #88 | −21✗ −14 | @Rutgers | W 42-35 132 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Maiava 277 · Rush Miller 102 · Rec Dixon-Wyatt 77 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #29 | #5 | +3.5✗ −10.5 | Oregon | L 27-41 143 Loud | 4-1 | 1-1 | Pass Maiava 326 · Rush Miller 74 · Rec Dixon-Wyatt 114 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #25 | #29 | −7.5✗ −3.5 | Washington | W 25-21 129 | 5-1 | 2-1 | Pass Maiava 245 · Rush Miller 81 · Rec Williams 78 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #25 | #36 | −1.5✓ +6.5 | @Penn State | W 31-23 126 | 6-1 | 3-1 | Pass Maiava 301 · Rush Miller 102 · Rec Mosley 111 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #23 | #49 | −1.5✗ −18.5 | @Wisconsin | L 7-24 132 | 6-2 | 3-2 | Pass Maiava 258 · Rush Alston 28 · Rec Tupou 46 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #30 | #1 | +6.5✓ +18.5 | Ohio StateTop 10 win | W 30-18 131 Loud | 7-2 | 4-2 | Pass Maiava 222 · Rush Miller 78 · Rec Mosley 101 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #27 | #4 | +10 | @Indiana | time TBA24% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Maryland | time TBA91% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | −10.5 | @UCLA | time TBA33% to win | |||||
Win chances are our model for USC, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for USC: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Ohio State | W 30-18 | 338 | 1 | 20:32 | +0.186 | 40.0% | 1.64 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | @Wisconsin | L 7-24 | 241 | 2 | 27:24 | -0.177 | 46.8% | 0.89 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | @Penn State | W 31-23 | 430 | 0 | 30:08 | +0.441 | 50.0% | 1.40 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | Washington | W 25-21 | 360 | 1 | 34:58 | +0.182 | 43.7% | 1.18 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | Oregon | L 27-41 | 446 | 1 | 28:35 | +0.269 | 43.4% | 1.50 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 19 | @Rutgers | W 42-35 | 461 | 0 | 26:45 | +0.359 | 53.1% | 1.21 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | Louisiana | W 49-30 | 483 | 1 | 33:14 | +0.340 | 50.7% | 1.30 | |
| Sep 4 | Fresno State | W 39-0 | 552 | 2 | 38:52 | +0.333 | 53.6% | 1.25 | Best defensive stand |
| Aug 29 | San José State | W 42-26 | 505 | 1 | 37:15 | +0.391 | 66.2% | 0.88 | Best success rate |
| Season average (9 games) | 424 | 1.0 | +0.258 | 49.7% | 1.25 | ||||
USC's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Teams that are going to be there in the end are the ones [that] overcome it and move on, whether it’s a big win, whether it’s a tough loss
34% now · ▲ 15 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
USC has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-15% tier since 2024, and the gap from the #16 AP final rank raises questions about whether Lincoln.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · USC · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 5%; 8 wins 50%; 9 wins 38%; 10 wins 7%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
USC Big Ten championship odds shortened, from 2.0% to 7.1% (up 5.2 points) between Oct 2026 and Nov 2026. The win total is up 0.1. The market moved and the fan conversation hasn't caught up. Little discussion of a line move usually means the information arrived before the coverage did. Discussion is thin, and the market moved faster than the reaction.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read: when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter: lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 1335 of 10622 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (137 posts): 17% positive · 44% neutral · 39% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
USC has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 20% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 18%. It is a 22-14 record over the last three regular seasons. The model registered a structural decline before the coverage did, and the coverage is still light.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
USC is the program that once owned Saturday night in Los Angeles — a Tailback U of Heismans and Hall of Famers — inching back toward the marquee and tired of telling fans the next step is coming.
The fanbase has spent fifteen years hearing the program eulogized as a faded brand coasting on its zip code; they say the talent pipeline, the recruiting and the city were never the problem, and…
USC · Game-day weather
Typical at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 100, noon Saturdays 93
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
USC is the program that used to own Saturday night, and is trying to remember how it felt.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
28th percentile among FBS programs
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #11, Bob Asmussen (Champaign News-Gazette), to #23, Koki Riley (The (Baton Rouge) Advocate).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · USC · 2026