Heisman / Players / Makai Lemon /USC

Makai Lemon

WR · USC · Jr · #6

The Long Memoryas of 2026-06-22

Makai Lemon is the USC name rival fanbases love to root against.

1,156REC YDS79REC11REC TD

REC YDS · 900-YD CLUB

1,156

1156 receiving yards — clears the 900-WR volume bar.

Rival fans bring him up unprompted, and rarely to praise him.

low confidence1 source

Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.

Read the story so far

Makai Lemon arrived as a 4-star prospect, the No.42 recruit nationally. He lines up at WR for USC.

On the field, the headline is 1,156 rec yds, with 79 rec.

Rival fans bring him up unprompted, and rarely to praise him.

The number to watch: 1,156 — rec yds · 900-yd club.

Why nowThe 2026 outlook is the live story — the offseason looks forward.

season totals
1156 receiving yards — clears the 900-WR volume bar.
throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes
compiled from tagged fan discourse

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 NFL DRAFTDrafted by Philadelphia — Rd 1, Pick 20, #20 overallAs of Jun 22, 2026

Where He Ended Up · NFL

Philadelphia2026 NFL rookie season

#20Rd 1 · Pick 20

Philadelphia2026 NFL rookie season

View college career stats ↓

WR · USC · BIG TEN

Makai Lemon

3
#6
5-11 | 195 lb
Los Alamitos, CA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 99th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#276

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP WR AWARD

Biletnikoff

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

3 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R14 Unanimous All-American · 2025

2023

USC · WR

—

2024

USC · WR

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

★

2025

USC · WR

R14 · Unanimous All-American

Elite

NFL Draft 2026 · Rd 1, Pick 20 · #20 overall · Philadelphia

Development Trajectory · receiving yards

2023–2025

88.02023

7642024

1,1562025

+1214%

Up 1214% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★★

#42 national

CFB

College

USC

2023–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

R1 · #20

Philadelphia · 2026

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionWR

Class3

Jersey6

Measurements5-11 | 195 lb

HometownLos Alamitos, CA

Primary teamUSC

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 42 recruit

Composite rating 0.9773 HighSchool

Signed with USC 2023

Origin Los Alamitos Los Alamitos, CA, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2023	4-star \| 0.9773	No. 42 recruit \| HighSchool \| USC

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file

Latest destination -- --

Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD

Season	Move	Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#276Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#341Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Honors Badge 0.7%
Volume King 1.3%
Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Named Consensus All-American — recognized on 3+ of the 5 NCAA-recognized selector lists.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to USC

Composite

0.9773

#42 national

NFL Draft

2026 · Rd 1, Pick 20

#20 overall · Philadelphia

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 3 mentions

Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=3
Rivals · n=1
National · n=2

Only 1 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Yards per reception

14.6

yds

All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions

National rank #120 of 531

Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 78th

Why it matters

#120 of 531 All FBS WRs at 14.6 yards per reception (79 catches).

Vs cohort

This player 14.6 (78th)

HIGH · n=79 cohort 531

Also strong
Receiving yards (total)#8 / 531
Receiving TDs#9 / 531

Signature Moment

Week 11 vs Northwestern — 161 ypr

Result W 38-17

The week the volume broke through — put up 161 yds vs Northwestern.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

projecting to 13-game

Through 12g

1,156Rec yards

79Receptions

11Rec TDs

Per game

96.3Rec yards

7Receptions

1Rec TDs

Projected (13g)

1,252Rec yards

86Receptions

12Rec TDs

✓ Hit 700-yard receiver · finished with 1,156.

✓ Hit 1,000-yard receiver · finished with 1,156.

✓ Hit 60-catch season · finished with 79.

To hit 80-catch season (currently 79): needs 1/game over remaining 1.

✓ Hit 8 receiving TDs · finished with 11.

✓ Hit 10 receiving TDs · finished with 11.

Why the honors trail matters

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Makai Lemon already has 15 loaded recognition items, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.

Current place #276 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 14.1% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 42 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

WR season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Receptions 79 11 rec TD | #11/1110 (99th pct)

Receiving yards 1,156 14.6 per catch | #8/1107 (99th pct)

Scrimmage yards 1,160 Total offensive yardage | #8/1107 (99th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Target magnet | All-purpose weapon against FBS receiving peers.

Target magnetAll-purpose weapon

Receiving

REC

79 99th

YDS

1,156 99th

YPR

14.6 74th

11 99th

Rushing

CAR

9 87th

YDS

4 30th

YPC

0.4 18th

2 99th

Returns

KR YDS

144 70th

KR AVG

18.0 41st

PR YDS

71 64th

PR AVG

11.8 77th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 73-13vs Missouri State	7	90	12.9	0	26
Wk 2	W 59-20vs Georgia Southern	4	158	39.5	2	74	2 TD catches
Wk 3	W 33-17@ Purdue	5	63	12.6	0	21
Wk 4	W 45-31vs Michigan State	8	127	15.9	1	40
Wk 5	L 32-34@ Illinois	11	151	13.7	2	29	2 TD catches
Wk 7	W 31-13vs Michigan	9	93	10.3	1	28
Wk 8	L 24-34@ Notre Dame	4	76	19.0	0	42
Wk 10	W 21-17@ Nebraska	2	18	9.0	0	16
Wk 11	W 38-17vs Northwestern	11	161	14.6	1	52	Season-high 161 yds
Wk 12	W 26-21vs Iowa	10	153	15.3	1	35	153-yard receiving day
Wk 13	L 27-42@ Oregon	7	34	4.9	2	9	2 TD catches
Wk 14	W 29-10vs UCLA	1	32	32.0	1	32
Total		79	1156	16.6	11	74

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023USC8-5HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning, slow tempo

2024USC7-6HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning

2025USC9-4HC: Lincoln Riley · Balanced

Season	Team
2025	USC	79	1,156	14.6	11	--
2024	USC	52	764	14.7	3	--
2023	USC	6	88	14.7	0	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	137	2,008	14.7	14	--

Season	Team
2025	USC	9	4	144	71	--
2024	USC	--	--	514	--	--
2023	USC	--	--	94	--	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	9	4	752	71	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Pass share

The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.

Role share

A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 14.1% 26.9% pass-game share | #20/1137 (98th pct)

Return yards 215 0 return TD | #73/238 (70th pct)

Touchdowns 13 Across offense and returns | #9/1111 (99th pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Receiving	Receptions	79	#11/1110	99th pct	Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving	Receiving yards	1,156	#8/1107	99th pct	Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving	Receiving TD	11	#9/1111	99th pct	Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving	Yards / catch	14.6	#291/1106	74th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Returns	Kick return yards	144	#73/238	70th pct	Volumevs FBS WR
Returns	Punt return yards	71	#81/224	64th pct	Volumevs FBS WR
Usage	Pass share	26.9%	#20/1137	98th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS WR
Rushing	Carries	9	#53/407	87th pct	Volumevs FBS WR
Rushing	Rushing LONG	7	#212/346	39th pct	Metricvs FBS WR
Rushing	Rushing yards	4	#277/397	30th pct	Volumevs FBS WR
Rushing	Rush TD	2	#7/411	99th pct	Scoringvs FBS WR
Rushing	Yards / carry	0.4	#323/393	18th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Receiving	Receiving LONG	74	#69/1105	94th pct	Metricvs FBS WR
Returns	Kick return avg	18.0	#141/236	41st pct	Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Returns	Punt return avg	11.8	#52/222	77th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Returns	Kick returns	8	#64/243	74th pct	Volumevs FBS WR
Returns	Punt returns	6	#113/237	53rd pct	Volumevs FBS WR
Usage	Passing-down usage	19.2%	#13/1137	99th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS WR
Usage	Role share	14.1%	#16/1137	99th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS WR
Usage	3rd-down usage	14.0%	#72/1137	94th pct	Money-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage	2nd-down usage	13.9%	#21/1137	98th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage	1st-down usage	13.6%	#24/1137	98th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage	Standard-down usage	12.3%	#21/1137	98th pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS WR
Usage	Rush share	1.6%	#133/1137	88th pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS WR
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	1	#131/302	57th pct	Turnoversvs FBS WR

UNANIMOUS AA

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

UNANIMOUS AA · Rung 14 of 16

Why he’s here

Unanimous All-American — 1st team on all five NCAA-recognized selectors.

What moves him up

The only step up is a Player-of-the-Year invite.

What moves him down

Losing a selector drops this to Consensus.

Accolade streams

Status—

Recognized on the Biletnikoff list (1).

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Home7g	7.1	116	20.1	1.0
Road5g	5.8	68.4	11.8	0.8

Win vs Loss

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Wins9g	6.3	99.4	18.0	0.8
Losses3g	7.3	87.0	12.5	1.3

First half vs Second half

	REC/g	YDS/g	YPR	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	7.3	114	17.5	1.0
Weeks 8+6g	5.8	79.0	15.8	0.8

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

84All-Conference

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rec yards (98th). Strength: rec tds (98th). Concern: rush yards (27th).

Rec yards#8 / 558 · 99th pct

1156rece

Rec TDs#9 / 558 · 98th pct

11rece

Receptions#11 / 558 · 98th pct

79rece

Rush TDs#7 / 287 · 96th pct

2rush

Long catch#63 / 558 · 88th pct

74rece

Yards / catch#154 / 558 · 72nd pct

14.6rece

Fumbles lost#86 / 218 · 36th pct

1fumb

Rush yards#204 / 287 · 28th pct

4rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

EPA / dropback—

awaiting

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Makai LemonUSCDanny ScuderoSan José State· 99% simCooper BarkateDuke· 95% simCortez BrahamMemphis· 95% sim

Rec yards

99
Lemon

100
Scudero

98
Barkate

93
Braham

Rec TDs

98
Lemon

98
Scudero

92
Barkate

95
Braham

Receptions

98
Lemon

99
Scudero

97
Barkate

92
Braham

Rush TDs

96
Lemon

Long catch

88
Lemon

86
Scudero

93
Barkate

87
Braham

Yards / catch

72
Lemon

73
Scudero

79
Barkate

65
Braham

Fumbles lost

36
Lemon

36
Scudero

Rush yards

28
Lemon

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Slot Technician

Runs precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Coleman Owen’s 2024 season.

Coleman Owen

82%match

Ohio · 2024

All-MAC

Luther Burden III

Missouri · 2023

All-SECNFL Rd 2 · Pk 7

75%

Kevin Concepcion

Texas A&M · 2025

74%

Xavier Restrepo

Miami · 2024

Consensus All-American

72%

Jay Maclin

North Texas · 2023

71%

Matches Coleman on

Yards / reception

Total EPA (college ability)

Weight

Differs from Coleman on

TD rate (higher)

Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Dai'Jean Dixon’s path through Nicholls.

Dai'Jean Dixon

97%match

Nicholls · 2021

Jermaine Jackson

Idaho · 2023

96%

Ben Ratzlaff

Houston Christian · 2020

96%

Blayne Taylor

Abilene Christian · 2024

95%

Josh Palmer

Tennessee · 2020

95%

Matches Dai'Jean on

Yards per reception

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Kevin Concepcion's junior season at Texas A&M (2025).

Kevin Concepcion

78%match

Texas A&M · 2025

All-ACC

Tyler Scott

Cincinnati · 2022

72%

Jordan Moore

Duke · 2023

All-ACC

72%

Chase Hendricks

Ohio · 2025

All-MAC

72%

Jerjuan Newton

Toledo · 2022

All-MAC

71%

Matches Kevin on

TD rate

Weight

EPA / play (adj)

Differs from Kevin on

Reception volume (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Lincoln Riley

Pass share

50.4%

420 pass / 414 run

Plays / game

64.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

3.8%

313 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach

2023

Lincoln Riley

USC

2024

Lincoln Riley

USC

2025

Lincoln Riley

USC

Played his entire career under Lincoln Riley.

HometownLos Alamitos, CA

Height5'11"

Weight195 lb

Class3

PositionWR

Jersey6

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

15 entries

🏆

ALL-AMERICA · CONSENSUS

Consensus AA (2025)

11 first-team selectors

🏅

POSITION AWARDS

Biletnikoff

2025 season

🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2025)

All-Big Ten

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-America

12 All-America selections

National selector recognition is one of the strongest non-Heisman signals on a player card and should sit near the top of the showcase.

All-Conference

2 all-conference honors

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
2025	Biletnikoff	position_award	USC \| Biletnikoff	winner \| WR
2025	All-America (USA Today)	all_america	USA Today	WR
2025	All-America (SI)	all_america	SI	WR
2025	All-America (PFF)	all_america	PFF	WR
2025	All-America (ESPN)	all_america	ESPN	WR
2025	All-America (CBS)	all_america	CBS	WR
2025	All-America (The Athletic)	all_america	The Athletic	WR
2025	All-America (WCFF)	all_america	WCFF	WR
2025	All-America (SN)	all_america	SN	WR
2025	All-America (FWAA)	all_america	FWAA	WR
2025	All-America (AP)	all_america	AP	WR
2025	All-America (AFCA)	all_america	AFCA	WR
2025	All-America (Consensus)	all_america	USC \| Consensus	--
2025	All-Big Ten	all_conference	USC \| Big Ten	WR
2024	All-Big Ten	all_conference	USC \| Big Ten	RS

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	USC	WR3	#276	#341	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| Big Ten
2023	USC	WR3	#1774	#1798	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W19 snapshot \| Pac-12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	USC	Big Ten	WR	3	No. 6 \| 5-11 \| 195 lb \| Los Alamitos, CA
2024	USC	Big Ten	WR	3	No. 6 \| 5-11 \| 195 lb \| Los Alamitos, CA
2023	USC	Pac-12	WR	3	No. 6 \| 5-11 \| 195 lb \| Los Alamitos, CA

Makai Lemon

R07 · Impact starter

+1214%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Makai Lemon

How rival fanbases talk about Makai Lemon

Yards per reception

Why the honors trail matters

2025 Season · Final

WR season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Slot Technician

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

12 All-America selections

2 all-conference honors

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline