Illinois football 2026: schedule, results, rankings

The rest of the season

Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Nebraska 40%

Win out <1% · expect 0.8 of 4 more wins

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 66% to 79%, peaking at 79% before a game

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 5th in the Big Ten · 3-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Katin Houser 1,663 · Rushing Aidan Laughery 560 · Receiving Collin Dixon 776 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches

The model#70 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #47 (+6.8) · FPI #48

The marketNebraska by 4.5Betting line vs Nebraska · our model 40% Illinois

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Illinois:athletics siteBig TenX

Illinois · 2026 schedule and results5-3Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 49% · 1 opponent played so far is in the AP top 25 now. 1 win over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #70 to #72

Wk	Date	Our rank	Opp rank	Line	Opponent	Result	Record	Conf	Top performers
1	Sep 3	#70	#55	−25.5✗ −6.5	UAB	W 42-23 122	1-0	0-0	Pass Houser 182 · Rush Valentine 88 · Rec Dixon 70
2	Sep 12	#68	#65	−6✗ −10	Duke	L 27-31 125	1-1	0-0	Pass Houser 271 · Rush Valentine 56 · Rec Dixon 166
3	Sep 19	#69	#152	−34.5✓ +3.5	Southern Illinois	W 48-10 126	2-1	0-0	Pass Houser 305 · Rush Laughery 93 · Rec Dixon 131
4	Sep 26	#71	#1	+25.5✓ +2.5	@Ohio State	L 19-42 139	2-2	0-1	Pass Houser 263 · Rush Laughery 113 · Rec Clement 87
5	Oct 3	#59	#113	−9.5✗ −16.5	Purdue	L 17-24 124	2-3	0-2	Pass Houser 225 · Rush Laughery 49 · Rec Dixon 116
6	Oct 10	#68	#139	−2.5✗ −1.5	@Michigan State	W 38-37 124 Firestorm	3-3	1-2	Pass Houser 194 · Rush Laughery 70 · Rec Clement 105
7	Bye week
8	Oct 24	#80	#10	+10.5✓ +21.5	OregonTop 25 win	W 21-10 131 Roaring	4-3	2-2	Pass Clayton II 84 · Rush Laughery 123 · Rec Dixon 65
9	Oct 31	#72	#106	−3=	@Maryland	W 20-17 123	5-3	3-2	Pass Houser 223 · Rush Barnett 80 · Rec Dixon 103
10	Nov 6	#71	#24	+4.5	Nebraska	8 pm ET · FOX40% to win
11	Nov 13	#72	#19		@UCLA	9 pm ET · FOX11% to win
12	Nov 21				Iowa	time TBA20% to win
13	Nov 28			−3.5	@Northwestern	time TBA

How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Illinois, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Illinois: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼

Date	Opp	Result	Yds	TO	TOP	EPA/play	Success%	Big plays (IsoPPP)	Note
Oct 31	@Maryland	W 20-17	407	1	29:46	+0.260	40.3%	1.61	Most explosive
Oct 24	Oregon	W 21-10	314	1	30:45	+0.056	36.2%	1.37	Season-low EPA/play
Oct 10	@Michigan State	W 38-37	409	1	33:52	+0.205	52.1%	1.05	One-score win
Oct 3	Purdue	L 17-24	345	1	28:27	+0.086	42.4%	1.41	One-score loss
Sep 26	@Ohio State	L 19-42	462	0	30:38	+0.263	45.2%	1.51	Defense's roughest night
Sep 19	Southern Illinois	W 48-10	503	1	25:54	+0.448	59.3%	1.17	Best success rate
Sep 12	Duke	L 27-31	382	1	33:14	+0.058	48.6%	1.09	One-score loss
Sep 3	UAB	W 42-23	332	0	18:57	+0.529	56.8%	1.35	Season-high EPA/play
Season average (8 games)			394	0.8		+0.238	47.6%	1.32

Illinois's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast

Season line4.5 winsover -103

Offense eliteDefense poor

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 4.5▼1 since Sep 9

CFP championship#37 in field+50,000

Big Ten title#12 in market+32,308

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

W 20-17 at Maryland

Illinois fans

r/CFB

“I can smell that mid-tier bowl game from miles away…”

4d ago

r/CFB

“This has to be one of the worst 5-3 teams ive seen”

4d ago

Maryland fans on Illinois

r/CFB

“He 1000% scored, was fairly clear in live action, but this is not a call that we get. I also don't even think Illinois recovered.”

4d ago

W 21-10 vs Oregon

Illinois fans

r/CFB

“For comparison to teams in the AP Top 25, here are teams receiving votes and unranked teams with ranked wins.”

1w ago

r/CFB

“Thanks for the stadium complement! Doesn’t get enough recognition imo. Highly recommend walking through the colonnades if you’re at the game today”

1w ago

Oregon fans on Illinois

r/CFB

“I would like to formally thank Illinois, Nebraska, and UCLA for making this happen”

1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

Fri Nov 13AP #5 UCLAat UCLA · on the road

Sat Nov 21AP #21 Iowavs Iowa · at home

Sat Nov 28Land of Lincoln Trophyat Northwestern · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

Illinois has won three of its last five.

7-3 over the last 10, and won the last three.

Streak W3Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3

We also recognize and take seriously the concerns about the ways in which continued displays of Chief imagery cause harm to members of the university community and beyond

Wade · The Daily IlliniNov 3, 20263 days after Illinois's 2026 game against Maryland

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

What a title game and a playoff run could add

Floor7-6A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.

Base9-4A bowl game.

Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

Active arcs

Cooling

Illinois football lands multiple commitments for the class of 2027

How will these recruits impact Illinois' future on the field?

Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025

2025 · Wk 14Fell out of the CFP rankingsWeek 13 · Lost 10-27 at Wisconsinwas No. 21
2025 · Wk 13Entered the CFP rankingsWeek 12 · Won 24-6 at home over Marylandat No. 21
2025 · Wk 10Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 9 · Lost 25-42 at Washingtonwas No. 23
2025 · Wk 9Entered the AP Top 25at No. 23
2025 · Wk 8Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 7 · Lost 16-34 at home to Ohio Statewas No. 17
2025 · Wk 7Climbed to No. 17 in the AP Top 25Week 6 · Won 43-27 at Purdue↑5 · from No. 22
2025 · Wk 5Fell to No. 23 in the AP Top 25Week 4 · Lost 10-63 at Indiana↓14 · from No. 9

Roster and recruiting

Roster21% of production back, talent #51

Roster reload: Illinois

2026 snapshot, Nov 4

Returning Production21%Low continuity / heavy reload

Talent Composite#51 nationally247 composite 704.0

Portal Additions20Primary repair: EDGE

Portal Losses27Primary pressure: CB

Draft Loss3NFL Draft departures (3)

Recruiting Reload#24Top-25 recruiting class

DLin 4 - Isaiah Thomison3.60out 5 - Tomiwa Durojaiye4.38Downgrade

current room: 294 lbs avg (2025 roster)

WRin 4 - Jayshon Platt3.60out 5 - Justin Bowick4.00Downgrade

current room: 199 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Slot Technician2025 profilewins underneath on volume and route precision

Transferred in

CBin 1 - Deuce Fillmore3.40out 4 - Kaleb Patterson3.70Starter Risk

current room: 192 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Cover Corner2025 profiledoesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play

Junior-college recruit

LBin 1 - Robert Edmonson3.70out 3 - Jojo Hayden3.70Starter Risk

current room: 236 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Balanced Linebacker2025 profileis steady in every phase without a signature trait

Sin 2 - James Finley4.00out 2 - Tyson Rooks3.49Even

Centerfielder2025 profileerases the deep middle of the field

EDGEin 2 - William Holmes3.60out 1 - Harrysson Ngassa2.00Upgrade

Thumperfills the run lane and blitzes off the edge

Transferred in

Full roster (117 players)

UNKLavon Williams, Maurice Smith

DLCameron Brooks, Carter Janki, Connor Sullivan, Darrell Prater, Demetrius John, Deon Williams, Ean Rhea, Guillermo Gallardo, Isaiah White, Joe Barna, Joshua Davis, King Liggins, Kingston Shaw, Parker Crim, Pat Farrell, Tony Balanganayi

LBCameron Thomas, Carter Smith, Daniel Brown, Erik Gayle, Grant Beerman, Isaiah Thomison, Ismael Kante, Jack Paris, Jacob Alexander, James Kreutz, Jaylen Stewart, Kayden Bennett, Mason Muragin, Robert Edmonson, Tony Williams, William Holmes

LSPatrick Mahoney III, Zach Haber

PJack Gray, Lars Rau

PKEthan Moczulski, Lucas Osada

QBCarson Boyd, Dane Eisenmenger, Jershaun Newton, Katin Houser, Michael Clayton II

RBAidan Laughery, Ca'Lil Valentine, Cedric Wyche II, Corey Rashad, Javari Barnett, John Forster, Jordan Anderson, Murphy Clement, Nelsyn Wheeler

TEBJ Thurman, Christian Abney, Davin Stoffel, Grant Smith, Kaden Feagin, Logan Farrell, Tanner Hollinger, Will Vala III

WRAlex Perry, Brayden Trimble, Collin Dixon, Davon Grant, Eddie Kasper, Hudson Clement, Jacob Harvey, Jayshon Platt, Karson Kaiser, Kenyon Alston, Leslie Mosley Jr., Nas Rankin, Nate Cichy, Ty Robinson

Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class

★★★☆☆

Sladen Shack

QB · Brandon, MS

#1166 national

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

Community pulse

No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 41% of FBS programs

→

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

41st percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.

Fan vs. market↑

41^st

Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)

4.5

Sportsbook win total
(14^th among FBS)

Fans 27pp more bullish than market implies

Win total consensus · 1 book

RivalsRival pulse: Northwestern hopeful

Rival pulse

Northwestern

Hopeful

Land of Lincoln Trophy

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Illinois

Athletics siteIllinois Athletics
Athletics siteIllinois football on the athletics site
Conference pagebigten.org football
On X@IlliniFootball

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site

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