cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Aidan Laughery /Illinois

Aidan Laughery

RB · Illinois · Jr · #21

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

382 RUSH YDS · 3 RUSH TD · 75 CARRIES

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Illinois for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Illinois for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Running back · Illinois

Returning around him

  • 52% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
  • 3 Illinois players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -8 net (19 in / 27 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Illinois · Last season: 9-4 (AP #23) · Talent rank #64 · 2026 recruiting class #45

RB · ILLINOIS · BIG TEN

Aidan Laughery

  • 3
  • #21
  • 5-11 | 200 lb
  • Gibson City, IL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

45

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 58th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#120

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

4 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2024

2022

Illinois · RB

2023

Illinois · RB

2024

Illinois · RB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2025

Illinois · RB

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2022–2025
9.02022
81.02023
5892024
3822025

+4144%

Up 4144% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#650 national
CFB
College
Illinois
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class3
Jersey21
Measurements5-11 | 200 lb
HometownGibson City, IL
Primary teamIllinois

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 650 recruit
Composite rating 0.8752 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2022
Origin Gcms Gibson City, IL, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 3-star | 0.8752 No. 650 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#120Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#128Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8752

#650 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Aidan Laughery

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Aidan Laughery

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 9g
382Rush yards
75Carries
3Rush TDs
Per game
42.4Rush yards
8Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
551.8Rush yards
108Carries
4Rush TDs

To hit 750-yard season (currently 382): needs 92/game over remaining 4.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 382): needs 154.5/game over remaining 4.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 382): needs 279.5/game over remaining 4.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 1.8/game over remaining 4.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 3/game over remaining 4.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 4.2/game over remaining 4.

Why the honors trail matters

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Aidan Laughery already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.

Current place #120 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 14.2% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Honors spine 1 honors loaded

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 436 382 rush | 54 rec | #219/735 (70th pct)
Rush TD 3 75 carries | #204/739 (73rd pct)
Yards/carry 5.1 Per-rush efficiency | #257/735 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
75 70th
YDS
382 70th
YPC
5.1 65th
TD
3 73rd

Receiving

REC
9 57th
YDS
54 51st
YPR
6.0 38th
TD
0 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 9 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 52-3vs Western Illinois910111.2257Season-high 101 yds
Wk 2W 45-19@ Duke650.806
Wk 5W 34-32vs USC7253.607
Wk 7L 16-34vs Ohio State8506.3123
Wk 9L 25-42@ Washington9303.307
Wk 10W 35-13vs Rutgers9414.6019
Wk 13L 10-27@ Wisconsin5163.205
Wk 14W 20-13vs Northwestern9374.109
BowlW 30-28vs Tennessee13775.9028
Total753824.8357
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Illinois8-5HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2023Illinois5-7HC: Bret Bielema · Balanced
2024Illinois10-3HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2025Illinois9-4HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Illinois753825.13--
2024Illinois975896.14--
2023Illinois16815.11--
2022Illinois393.00--
Career4 loaded seasons1911,0615.68--
SeasonTeam
2025Illinois9546.00--
2024Illinois9323.60--
2023Illinois22412.00--
2022Illinois----------
Career4 loaded seasons201105.50--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 9 54 rec yds | #236/552 (57th pct)
Usage 14.2% 24.3% rush share | #198/738 (73rd pct)
Rushing WEPA +0.10 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #209/362 (43rd pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 382 #219/735 70th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 3 #204/739 73rd pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 5.1 #257/735 65th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 9 #236/552 57th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 54 #267/548 51st pct Volumevs FBS RB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.10 #209/362 43rd pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 65 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 14.2% #198/738 73rd pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 75 #223/739 70th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 57 #118/733 84th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 17 #264/540 51st pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 6.0 #340/548 38th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #169/552 70th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 24.3% #194/738 74th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 19.7% #148/738 80th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 18.2% #163/738 78th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 13.6% #221/738 70th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 4.5% #481/738 35th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 3.9% #237/738 68th pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 3.2% #535/738 28th pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 9 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home6g55.25.90.5
Road3g17.02.40.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins6g47.75.00.3
Losses3g32.04.30.3

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-75g51.65.60.6
Weeks 8+4g31.03.80.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

45Mid-pack
7 metrics · season cumulative

Production sits in the middle of the position cohort across the board.

Long run#107 / 349 · 68th pct
57rush
Yards / carry#139 / 349 · 58th pct
5.1rush
Rush TDs#200 / 349 · 38th pct
3rush
Rush yards#219 / 349 · 37th pct
382rush
Carries#223 / 349 · 35th pct
75rush
Receptions#214 / 338 · 35th pct
9rece
Rec yards#228 / 338 · 32nd pct
54rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

wepa_rushing0.1Low (p25–p50) (n=178)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Aidan LaugheryIllinoisTae MeadowsTroy· 71% simBill DavisLouisiana· 70% simJeremiah CobbAuburn· 69% sim
Long run
68
Laughery
53
Meadows
91
Davis
51
Cobb
Yards / carry
58
Laughery
29
Meadows
45
Davis
71
Cobb
Rush TDs
38
Laughery
72
Meadows
72
Davis
62
Cobb
Rush yards
37
Laughery
74
Meadows
80
Davis
88
Cobb
Carries
35
Laughery
84
Meadows
83
Davis
88
Cobb
Receptions
35
Laughery
45
Meadows
39
Davis
45
Cobb
Rec yards
32
Laughery
38
Meadows
45
Davis
47
Cobb

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Balanced Back

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

RB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to TJ Green’s 2021 season.

TJ Green

85%match

Liberty · 2021

#2

Omiri Wiggins

Louisiana Tech · 2025

85%
#3

Christian Turner

Indiana · 2023

84%
#4

TJ Green

Liberty · 2022

80%
#5

Michel Dukes

South Florida · 2023

78%

Matches TJ on

Receiving share
Yards / carry
Weight

Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Jacory Merritt’s path through Arizona.

Jacory Merritt

90%match

Arizona · 2024

#2

Ainias Smith

Texas A&M · 2020

All-SECNFL Rd 5
89%
#3

Dylan Sampson

Tennessee · 2024

NFL Rd 4
89%
#4

Emmett Johnson

Nebraska · 2025

All-Big TenNFL Rd 5
87%
#5

Rhamondre Stevenson

Oklahoma · 2020

NFL Rd 4
87%

Matches Jacory on

Height
Yards per carry
Weight

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Ajay Allen's senior season at Tulsa (2025).

Ajay Allen

78%match

Tulsa · 2025

#2

Zylan Perry

Louisiana · 2025

76%
#3

Christian Washington

San Diego State · 2025

All-Mountain West
76%
#4

Jalen Buckley

Western Michigan · 2025

All-MAC
74%
#5

Demond Claiborne

Wake Forest · 2025

All-ACCNFL Rd 6
70%

Matches Ajay on

Total rush EPA (college ability)
Receiving share
Yards / carry

Differs from Ajay on

Yards / reception (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Bret Bielema

Pass share

45.6%

372 pass / 444 run

Plays / game

62.8

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

11.0%

292 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach
2022
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2023
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2024
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2025
Bret Bielema
Illinois

Played his entire career under Bret Bielema.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownGibson City, IL
Height5'11"
Weight200 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey21

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2024)

All-Big Ten

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

1 all-conference honor

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2024 All-Big Ten all_conference Big Ten --

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Illinois RB3 #120 #128 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big Ten
2023 Illinois RB3 #1541 #1796 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big Ten
2022 Illinois RB3 #1914 #1686 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big Ten

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Illinois Big Ten RB 3 No. 21 | 5-11 | 200 lb | Gibson City, IL
2024 Illinois Big Ten RB 3 No. 21 | 5-11 | 200 lb | Gibson City, IL
2023 Illinois Big Ten RB 3 No. 21 | 5-11 | 200 lb | Gibson City, IL
2022 Illinois Big Ten RB 3 No. 21 | 5-11 | 200 lb | Gibson City, IL