The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Bret Bielema

Followed Lovie Smith. Bret Bielema raised Illinois from Regional Program II to National Program II.

Peak, then fade
134–84
2006–now · 3 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Some of these guys are just getting the understanding of getting their feet underneath them
They were talking really good on the headset
The Daily Illinithe day of the 42–23 opener
Well, he’s fresh
The Daily Illinithe day before the opener
I think him and Katin have kind of built a little bit of a relationship here the last two weeks, and I think that’s a really fun thing to see grow
The Daily Illinithe day before the opener
To bring Katin Houser (to Big Ten Media Days) as one of our player representatives, I wanted him to be known as the quarterback at the University of Illinois going into the season
The Daily Illini
He didn’t get cleared until summer started
Thechampaignroom
I think in the Big Ten play, to prepare for a unique offensive or defensive scheme in a workweek is really, really hard
The Daily Illini
One of the things that I felt as a head coach, I’m at my best when I don’t have to worry and micromanage areas that I don’t need to do or don’t want to do
The Daily Illini
To build a successful campaign to get 10 wins or more in the regular season, which will get you in the playoffs, I think we’re going to have to win on the road
The Daily Illini
I went back and looked during my window over the last five years and then specifically it’s gotten better and better each year
The Daily Illini
I do think that to say you contend is a great word, right, but I think championships are what people remember, right, and to get in those conversations, to do it more consistently, you’ve got to have a lot of great things going for you
The Daily Illini
The last three years, the quarterback I have now, we would not have gotten if the world existed five years ago
The Daily Illini
The fastest guys out of that group would be maybe Jared Cornelius and or Keon Hatcher
Saturday Down South3 days before the opener

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Wisconsin, 7 seasons
+7.9
Power Program II → Power Program I.
Arkansas, 5 seasons
−0.8
Power Program III → Power Program III.
Illinois, 6 seasons (active)
+12.5
Regional Program I → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Arkansas2013–2017▲ 3.2ptIllinois2021–2026▲ 7.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Arkansas4.8pt#230 of 258 · less than most
Illinois10.4pt#124 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

16–8 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Nick Saban.

Rivalry record
16–8
66.7% · 6 rivals
One-score games
43–33
56.6% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–5
0.0%
Buyout owed
$49,491,667 (est.)
bigger than 90% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Northwestern4–180%
Minnesota5–0100%
Iowa3–260%
LSU2–250%
Missouri1–325%
Nebraska1–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Nick Saban0–5
5 meetings, 2013–2017
’13 L’14 L · blew a 6-pt lead’15 L · blew a 4-pt lead’16 L’17 L
0% win rate across a real, 5-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–5 0.0%
Blue Blood
7–10 41.2%
Power Program
24–34 41.4%
National Program
37–15 71.2%
Regional Program
42–10 80.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.34
#49 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.06
#208 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

program directionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Bret Bielema has improved Illinois' win-loss record

It’s night and day. We won 10 games total between 2015 and 2017. We have a shot at 10 wins again this season. Bielema is a miracle worker for turning around this program.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Nov 1, 2025 · via CFB

Coaching career

2021–now
Illinoisbuilderborderline
Regional Program II → National Program II
Bret Bielema raised Illinois from Regional Program II to National Program II.

7th-best Illinois tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-1.0 pts
#117 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+6.9 pts
#74 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Lovie Smith (2016–2020).

Season202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record5–78–55–710–39–40–0
PostseasonL bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#73#46#38#49#45#24
Style — pass rate
Pass rate40.841.951.144.144.947.7
Coordinators
OCTony PetersenBarry Lunney Jr.Barry Lunney Jr.Barry Lunney Jr.Barry Lunney Jr.Barry Lunney Jr.
DCRyan WaltersRyan WaltersAaron Henry / Terrance JamisonAaron Henry / Terrance JamisonAaron Henry / Terrance JamisonBobby Hauck
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense194058726479
Defense649844414421
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%29.837.744.640.042.941.7
Red-zone pass%40.838.841.739.339.470.0
4th-down go%opp. territory20.035.340.030.641.9
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
74
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
126
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-52
#99 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 245 lbs
across 58 of 74 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+10.1 lbs
#12 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#103 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: IL (7), FL (5), TX (4), WA (4), GA (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
59.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.9
position-weighted
Net
+1.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Luke Altmyer (QB) from Ole Miss
Biggest loss: Matt Robinson (QB) to Fresno State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Tony Petersen → Barry Lunney Jr. · 2022
19th pct40th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 29.8% → 37.7% (+7.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 55% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Ryan Walters → Aaron Henry / co-Terrance Jamison · 2023the defense collapsed across the change
81st pct43rd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Aaron Henry / co-Terrance Jamison → Bobby Hauck · 2026
44th pct21st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
210 lbs
6′3″ avg · #472 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
218 lbs
6′0″ avg · #72 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′1″ avg · #235 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
256 lbs
6′5″ avg · #62 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
317 lbs
6′5″ avg · #104 of 779 · more than most
D-line
300 lbs
6′3″ avg · #88 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
241 lbs
6′3″ avg · #18 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #104 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys D-line via the portal
58%
#60 of 239 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
82%
#184 of 224 stints
Grows Cornerback from high school
71%
#190 of 236 stints
Postseason detail2022: Lost to Mississippi State 10–19 ReliaQuest Bowl2024: Beat South Carolina 21–17 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl2025: Beat Tennessee 30–28 Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl

17 NFL Draft picks: Kendrick Green (2021), Nate Hobbs (2021), Kerby Joseph (2022), Vederian Lowe (2022), Doug Kramer (2022), Devon Witherspoon (2023), Jartavius Martin (2023), Sydney Brown (2023) + 9 more

3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Devon Witherspoon (2022), Alex Palczewski (2022), Johnny Newton (2023)

37–26
2013–2017
Arkansascaretaker
Power Program III → Power Program III
Bret Bielema held Arkansas at Power Program III for 5 seasons.

6th-best Arkansas tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+19.9 pts
#41 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-39.3 pts
#203 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed John Smith (2012–2012) · succeeded by Chad Morris (2018–2019).

Season20132014201520162017Trend
Record & result
Record3–97–68–57–64–8
PostseasonW bowlW bowlCFP loss
Recruiting rank#29#22#23#27
Style — pass rate
Pass rate39.242.244.042.4
Coordinators
OCJim ChaneyDan EnosDan EnosDan Enos
DCRobb SmithRobb SmithRobb SmithPaul Rhoads
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense641006773
Defense92192516
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%25.632.833.833.3
Red-zone pass%33.934.037.530.1
4th-down go%opp. territory30.044.427.028.6
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Jim Chaney → Dan Enos · 2015
64th pct100th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 25.6% → 32.8% (+7.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 89% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Robb Smith → Paul Rhoads · 2017
25th pct16th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Texas 31–7 Advocare V100 Texas Bowl2015: Beat Kansas State 45–23 Autozone Liberty Bowl2016: Lost to Virginia Tech 24–35 CFP

23 NFL Draft picks: Knile Davis (2013), Tyler Wilson (2013), Cobi Hamilton (2013), Chris Gragg (2013), Travis Swanson (2014), Chris Smith (2014), Kiero Small (2014), Zach Hocker (2014) + 15 more

29–34
2006–2012
Wisconsincaretaker
Power Program III → Power Program I
Bret Bielema moved Wisconsin from Power Program III to Power Program I in 7 seasons.

2nd-best Wisconsin tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Gary Andersen (2013–2014).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

30 NFL Draft picks: Brian Calhoun (2006), Brandon Williams (2006), Owen Daniels (2006), Jason Pociask (2006), Jonathan Orr (2006), Joe Thomas (2007), Jack Ikegwuonu (2008), Taylor Mehlhaff (2008) + 22 more

68–24