Followed Jim McElwain. Dan Mullen inherited a Power Program I Florida and won with it.
He could have gotten better, a couple reads, maybe make them a little bit quicker. Overall, I think he played very well throughout the entire course of the game
Big rivalry game this week for us. First conference game. It’s a huge week for us
There’s so many different storylines with this season opener
No one is going to have higher expectations than me for our team
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached Blue Blood in his 11th career season — faster than 16% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #82 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
10–5 against his rivals. Winless in 9 tries against Nick Saban.
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
I played some JC football until I got injured but I could see why someone would want to come play for Dan Mullen. He made me want to run through a brick wall for him.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 30, 2026 · via UNLV
4th-best UNLV tenure of 12 by the numbers.
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Followed Barry Odom (2023–2024).
| Season | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||
| Record | 10–4 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #95 | #63 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||
| Pass rate | 46.2 | 42.0 | |
| Coordinators | |||
| OC | Corey Dennis | Corey Dennis | |
| DC | Paul Guenther | Paul Guenther | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||
| Offense | 94 | 47 | |
| Defense | 15 | 39 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||
| 1st-down pass% | 46.0 | 39.8 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 37.8 | 42.9 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 31.6 | 50.0 | |
A portal-built roster.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
1 NFL Draft pick: Ricky White III (2025)
8th-best Florida tenure of 22 by the numbers.
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Followed Jim McElwain (2015–2017) · succeeded by Billy Napier (2022–2025).
| Season | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 10–3 | 11–2 | 8–4 | 5–6 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | W bowl | L bowl | L bowl | |
| Recruiting rank | #14 | #9 | #8 | #13 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||
| Pass rate | 41.1 | 54.0 | 56.3 | 45.7 | |
| Coordinators | |||||
| OC | Billy Gonzales / John Hevesy | Billy Gonzales / John Hevesy | Brian Johnson | — | |
| DC | Todd Grantham | Todd Grantham | Todd Grantham | Todd Grantham | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 92 | 87 | 97 | 73 | |
| Defense | 82 | 80 | 28 | 60 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 41.3 | 58.1 | 61.4 | 46.5 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 42.7 | 51.4 | 54.3 | 47.7 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 27.5 | 38.5 | 28.6 | 40.0 | |
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
28 NFL Draft picks: Taven Bryan (2018), Duke Dawson (2018), Antonio Callaway (2018), Johnny Townsend (2018), Marcell Harris (2018), Jawaan Taylor (2019), Jachai Polite (2019), Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (2019) + 20 more
3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Kyle Pitts (2020), Kyle Trask (2020), Kadarius Toney (2020)
5th-best Mississippi State tenure of 20 by the numbers.
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Followed Sylvester Croom (2004–2008) · succeeded by Joe Moorhead (2018–2019).
| Season | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||||
| Record | 5–7 | 9–4 | 7–6 | 8–5 | 7–6 | 10–3 | 9–4 | 6–7 | 8–4 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | — | — | CFP loss | W CFP | W bowl | W CFP | |
| Recruiting rank | — | — | — | — | — | #36 | #18 | #28 | #24 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||||||
| Pass rate | — | — | — | — | — | 42.3 | 53.9 | 43.6 | 35.8 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||||||
| OC | — | — | — | — | — | Billy Gonzales / John Hevesy | Billy Gonzales / John Hevesy | Billy Gonzales / John Hevesy | Billy Gonzales / John Hevesy | |
| DC | — | — | — | — | — | Geoff Collins | Manny Diaz | Peter Sirmon | Todd Grantham | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||||
| Offense | — | — | — | — | — | 90 | 86 | 84 | 50 | |
| Defense | — | — | — | — | — | 52 | 43 | 18 | 96 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | — | — | — | — | 46.1 | 61.2 | 39.9 | 32.0 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | — | — | — | — | 41.7 | 52.8 | 40.0 | 25.8 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | — | — | — | — | 37.8 | 35.6 | 36.2 | 35.7 | |
26 NFL Draft picks: Anthony Dixon (2010), Jamar Chaney (2010), Derek Sherrod (2011), K.J. Wright (2011), Pernell McPhee (2011), Chris White (2011), Fletcher Cox (2012), Vick Ballard (2012) + 18 more