The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Charles Kelly

9–5
2025–now · 1 stint
Jacksonville State
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In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerJACKSONVILLE STATERegional Programthe building-block levelJacksonville State, 2025: 9-5, Regional Program III2025Jacksonville State, 2026: in progress, Regional Program III2026+0.5One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Jacksonville State, 2 seasons (active)
+0.5
Regional Program III → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%Jacksonville State2025–2026▲ 8.6pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

One-score games
5–5
50.0% · margin ≤8
Buyout owed
$3,470,833
bigger than 35% of FBS buyouts
Performance by opponent class
National Program
0–2 0.0%
Regional Program
8–4 66.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.12
#98 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.01
#162 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2025–now
Jacksonville State
too new to grade yet

1st-best Jacksonville State tenure of 2 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+21.1 pts
#36 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+11.4 pts
#63 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Rich Rodriguez (2023–2024).

Season20252026Trend
Record & result
Record9–50–0
PostseasonW bowl—
Recruiting rank#110#86
Style — pass rate
Pass rate33.642.2
Coordinators
OCClint TrickettTaylor Housewright
DCBrian WilliamsBrian Williams
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense6150
Defense5269
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%29.647.9
Red-zone pass%28.620.0
4th-down go%opp. territory33.3—
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
43
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
41
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+2
#35 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 221 lbs
across 30 of 43 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-3.1 lbs
#248 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#241 of 255 · less than most
Top states: GA (8), AL (6), NC (4), FL (4), TX (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
51.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
54.0
position-weighted
Net
-2.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Gavin Wimsatt (QB) from Kentucky
Biggest loss: Te'Sean Smoot (QB) to Alabama State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Clint Trickett → Taylor Housewright · 2026
61st pct50th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 29.6% → 47.9% (+18.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 50% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tackle via the portal
75%
#11 of 223 stints
Grows Running back from high school
80%
#181 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2025: Beat Troy 17–13 IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
9–5
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.