This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, won 5 straight, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score by season, then after every game this seasonJacksonville StateRegional Programthe building-block levelJacksonville State when he took over: 16.9 (Regional Program III), its final 2024 readingtook overJacksonville State, 2025: 9-5, Regional Program IIIJacksonville State, 2025: 9-5, Regional Program III2025Jacksonville State, 2026 preseason: 17.4, Regional Program III2026 preJacksonville State, 2026 after W 49-7 vs Eastern Kentucky: 17.6, Regional Program IIIW 49-7Eastern Ke…Jacksonville State, 2026 after L 7-33 vs North Dakota State: 17.7, Regional Program IIIL 7-33North Dako…Jacksonville State, 2026 after L 27-29 vs Ohio: 17.8, Regional Program IIIL 27-29OhioJacksonville State, 2026 after W 31-27 vs Georgia Southern: 17.9, Regional Program IIIW 31-27Georgia So…Jacksonville State, 2026 after W 23-13 vs Middle Tennessee: 17.8, Regional Program IIIW 23-13Middle Ten…Jacksonville State, 2026 after W 27-26 vs Kennesaw State: 17.8, Regional Program IIIW 27-26Kennesaw S…Jacksonville State, 2026 after W 27-24 vs Florida International: 17.6, Regional Program IIIW 27-24Florida In…Jacksonville State, 2026 after W 24-0 vs New Mexico State: 17.6, Regional Program IIIW 24-0New Mexico…Jacksonville State, 2026 week 9 (bye): 18.2, Regional Program IIIJacksonville State, 2026 week 9 (bye): 18.2, Regional Program IIIbye+0.5best: 2026, week 9○ the program when he took over · Earlier seasons: one reading each. 2026: preseason, then after each game — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-0

2025Salute to Veterans BowlW 17-13

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 24-0 at New Mexico State Wed Oct 28
  • This season6-2 won 5 straight
  • On track for9-3 regular season
  • Nextvs. Sam Houston Sat Nov 7
  • Stature96th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.3% → 0.5% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Sam Houston

Sat Nov 7, 7 pm ET CBS Sports Network · Sam Houston is 1-7 · First meeting between Kelly and Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay as head coaches · Jacksonville State’s chance to win: 90% (the site’s model)

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 51st of 138 per play. Defense: 86th.

Offense, per play51stOffense, big plays115thDefense, per play86thDefense, big plays allowed10thWorstBest
Offense, per play51st of 138Offense, big plays115th of 138Defense, per play86th of 138Defense, big plays allowed10th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Jacksonville State. The other two rows are where Jacksonville State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Sam Houston (1-7)CBS Sports Network90%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Western Kentucky (3-5)ESPN+66%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Missouri State (3-5)84%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Delaware (4-4)CBS Sports Network48%

Percent: Jacksonville State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Jacksonville State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

91st97th103rdPreseason97thEastern Kentucky W 49-7Eastern Kentucky W 49-7W 49-7Eastern Kentu…97thNorth Dakota State L 7-33North Dakota State L 7-33L 7-33North Dakota …97thOhio L 27-29Ohio L 27-29L 27-29Ohio97thGeorgia Southern W 31-27Georgia Southern W 31-27W 31-27Georgia South…97thMiddle Tennessee W 23-13Middle Tennessee W 23-13W 23-13Middle Tennes…97thKennesaw State W 27-26Kennesaw State W 27-26W 27-26Kennesaw State96thFlorida International W 27-24Florida International W 27-24W 27-24Florida Inter…98thNew Mexico State W 24-0New Mexico State W 24-0W 24-0New Mexico St…96thBye96th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 24-0 at New Mexico State0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25No game1 headline · 81st of 138Charles Kelly on ESPN docuseries about Saban: 'I lived it' The Anniston Star
  3. Oct 12–18W 27-24 vs. Florida International0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 27-26 at Kennesaw State1 headline · 83rd of 138“it doesn't matter what team they're on”Jax State's Kelly on concern for Kennesaw player's injury, Oct 9
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 23-13 vs. Middle Tennessee1 headline · 83rd of 138Charles Kelly gives injury update on Jax State football LB Walker O'Steen Gadsden Times

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Jacksonville State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

7%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled32nd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    Age 59 · in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 6-2, outscoring opponents by 7.0 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    Paid $1 million in 2025, the 25th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.