The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Neal Brown

Followed Dana Holgorsen. Neal Brown slid West Virginia from Power Program III to National Program I in 6 seasons.

The ascent
72–51
2015–now · 3 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 5th career season — faster than 14% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #547 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Troy, 4 seasons
+6.8
Regional Program III → Regional Program I.
West Virginia, 6 seasons
−7.3
National Program I → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%Troy2015–2018▼ 8.7ptWest Virginia2019–2024▼ 16.0ptNorth Texas2026–2026– 0.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Troy9.2pt#149 of 258 · a typical amount
West Virginia20.6pt#9 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

3–3 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Mike Gundy.

Rivalry record
3–3
50.0% · 2 rivals
One-score games
25–13
65.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–1
50.0%
Rivalry ledger
Pittsburgh1–150%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Mike Gundy1–4
5 meetings, 2019–2023
’19 L · blew a 3-pt lead’20 L’21 L · blew a 3-pt lead’22 W · erased a 3-pt deficit’23 L · blew a 4-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1–1 50.0%
Power Program
9–18 33.3%
National Program
13–15 46.4%
Regional Program
30–9 76.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.07
#186 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.10
#96 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2026–now
North Texas
too new to grade yet

7th-best North Texas tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Eric Morris (2023–2025).

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
49
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
38
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+11
#1 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 224 lbs
across 36 of 49 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-5.2 lbs
#254 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#43 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (14), GA (5), FL (4), PA (3), IN (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.1
position-weighted
Net
-4.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tayven Jackson (QB) from UCF
Biggest loss: Drew Mestemaker (QB) to Oklahoma State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Interior line via the portal
100%
#1 of 224 stints
Buys Safety via the portal
100%
#1 of 218 stints
0–0
2019–2024
West Virginiacaretaker
Power Program III → National Program I
Neal Brown slid West Virginia from Power Program III to National Program I in 6 seasons.

6th-best West Virginia tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-8.8 pts
#146 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-7.4 pts
#135 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Dana Holgorsen (2011–2018).

Season201920202021202220232024Trend
Record & result
Record5–76–46–75–79–40–1
PostseasonW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#48#37#40#35#48#46
Style — pass rate
Pass rate57.652.849.748.937.041.7
Coordinators
OCChad Scott / Matt MooreChad Scott / Gerad ParkerChad Scott / Gerad ParkerGraham HarrellChad ScottChad Scott
DCVic KoenningJordan Lesley / Jahmile Addae / Jeff KoonzJordan Lesley / ShaDon BrownJordan Lesley / ShaDon BrownJordan Lesley / ShaDon BrownShaDon Brown / Jordan Lesley (5th season; first 8 games) / Jeff Koonz (interim; after week 9)
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense103237528358
Defense52806247353
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%56.056.149.152.038.736.0
Red-zone pass%49.457.649.645.431.735.3
4th-down go%opp. territory30.836.140.846.254.161.2
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
40
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
95
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-55
#125 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 228 lbs
across 37 of 40 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+7.1 lbs
#49 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: GA (5), TX (4), WV (3), SC (3), PA (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
58.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.3
position-weighted
Net
-3.3
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: JT Daniels (QB) from Georgia
Biggest loss: JT Daniels (QB) to Rice
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Chad Scott / Matt Moore → co-Chad Scott / Gerad Parker · 2020
10th pct32nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 56.0% → 56.1% (+0.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 88% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Chad Scott / Gerad Parker → Graham Harrell · 2022
37th pct52nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 49.1% → 52.0% (+2.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 19% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Graham Harrell → Chad Scott · 2023
52nd pct83rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 52.0% → 38.7% (-13.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 35% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Vic Koenning → Jordan Lesley / co-Jahmile Addae / co-Jeff Koonz · 2020
52nd pct80th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Jordan Lesley / co-Jahmile Addae / co-Jeff Koonz → Jordan Lesley / co-ShaDon Brown · 2021
80th pct62nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
212 lbs
6′1″ avg · #398 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
214 lbs
5′11″ avg · #140 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
197 lbs
6′0″ avg · #222 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
252 lbs
6′5″ avg · #144 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
308 lbs
6′5″ avg · #411 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
285 lbs
6′3″ avg · #349 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
226 lbs
6′1″ avg · #494 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
190 lbs
6′0″ avg · #411 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
200 lbs
6′0″ avg · #87 of 346 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys ATH via the portal
14%
#32 of 146 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
78%
#144 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
73%
#160 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2020: Beat Army 24–21 AutoZone Liberty Bowl2021: Lost to Minnesota 6–18 Guaranteed Rate Bowl2023: Beat North Carolina 30–10 Duke's Mayo Bowl2024: Lost to Memphis 37–42 Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: Will Grier (2019), Yodny Cajuste (2019), Gary Jennings Jr. (2019), Trevon Wesco (2019), David Long Jr. (2019), Kenny Robinson (2020), Colton McKivitz (2020), Tony Fields II (2021) + 3 more

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Darius Stills (2020), Wyatt Milum (2024)

37–35
2015–2018
Troycaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program I
Neal Brown moved Troy from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

5th-best Troy tenure of 7 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+3.1 pts
#95 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+26.0 pts
#15 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Larry Blakeney (2001–2014) · succeeded by Chip Lindsey (2019–2021).

Season2015201620172018Trend
Record & result
Record4–810–311–210–3
PostseasonW bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#117#98#96#98
Style — pass rate
Pass rate52.350.452.843.6
Coordinators
OCKenny EdenfieldKenny Edenfield / Matt MooreKenny Edenfield / Matt MooreSean Reagan / Matt Moore
DCVic KoenningVic KoenningVic KoenningVic Koenning
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense35167445
Defense44609369
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%54.546.547.746.6
Red-zone pass%42.743.345.244.9
4th-down go%opp. territory21.939.541.533.3
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Kenny Edenfield / co-Matt Moore → co-Sean Reagan / co-Matt Moore · 2018
74th pct45th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.7% → 46.6% (-1.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 42% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2016: Beat Ohio 28–23 Dollar General Bowl2017: Beat North Texas 50–30 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2018: Beat Buffalo 42–32 Dollar General Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Antonio Garcia (2017)

35–16