Playoff odds0.2% → 0.1%CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Win and he’s at 4%. Lose and he’s at 7%.
at Arizona, Fri Nov 6, 10:15 pm ET · ARIZNo. 24 Arizona is 6-2 · Dykes vs. Brent Brennan: 1-0 · TCU’s chance to win: 26% (the site’s model)
If TCU wins: 4%, 64th of 132
Now: 6%
If TCU loses: 7%, 45th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.
Is he getting fired?
6%chance he’s out after the season · 49th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.
If he finishes…
Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out
4-812%
5-76%
6-63%
7-52%
8-41%
Why his number is where it is
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
One national title game here, lost in 2022 — in 2022–2025, when every season ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
← swipe for earlier seasons
Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
▲ Hotter
Year 5· tenure, which this model overrates(why?)
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
▼ Cooler
$26.4M buyout (imputed from pay) · 3.8× his pay, a multiple above average in FBS — costly to move on
▼ Cooler
18-8 over his previous two seasons here
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$26,396,475imputed from total pay — not a reported figure· 3.8× total pay· a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go· without it: 9%
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
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I was at the TCU game. It was maybe half capacity at the start. It was maybe 20 percent capacity after halftime. I get it. Students have to pregame from Halloween parties and parents have to get ready to take kids trick or treating.
Only fools like me stayed for the whole game.
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 102nd of 138 per play. Defense: 10th.
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is TCU. The other two rows are where TCU stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Fri Nov 6at ARIZArizona (6-2)26%
Sat Nov 14vs. KSUKansas State (4-4)68%
Sat Nov 21vs. UTAHUtah (8-0)28%
Thu Nov 26at TTUTexas Tech (7-1)23%
Percent: TCU’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where TCU stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 24L 20-24 vs. West VirginiaClassic Sonny Dykes team undisciplined penaltyTCUTCU fan
Oct 17W 17-6 at BaylorSonny Dykes gets to be incompetent everyday at his job and set for life if he’s fired, jokes on usTCUTCU fan
Oct 3L 10-17 vs. BYUIf I could fire Dykes, I would've already.TCUTCU fan
Earlier weeks
Sep 26L 13-21 at UCFFire Sonny Dykes, this team has looked worse every single year.TCUTCU fan
Sep 19W 31-7 vs. Arkansas StateI can’t wait for the Dykes era to be overTCUTCU fan
Sep 12W 63-7 vs. GramblingReady for some Sonny Dykes harmingsTCUTCU fan
Aug 29L 10-15 vs. North CarolinaI’m headed out. Fire Sonny Dykes.TCUTCU fan
Many stories about him this week
Fri Nov 6: Arizona
46th of 104 FBS head coaches · from several outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2022). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
0-2 against his rivals at Louisiana Tech. Nobody he faced three or more times there has a winning record against him.
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’10’12
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WIL
Illinois · 2012
52-24
Quality opponent
WMI
Ole Miss · 2011
27-7
Quality opponent
WUT
UTSA · 2012
51-27
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LTC
TCU · 2011
24-31
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUS
Southern Miss · 2011
17-19
Rival
LUS
Southern Miss · 2010
12-13
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
0-4 against his rivals at California. Winless in 4 tries against David Shaw.
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0-4 0.0%ATS —
Power Program
6-13 31.6%ATS 6-13 19 of 19
National Program
5-10 33.3%ATS 9-6 15 of 15
Regional Program
5-3 62.5%ATS 2-6 8 of 8
Signature games
2-10 vs. AP top 25 · 0-6 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’13’14’15’16
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WAF
Air Force · 2015
55-36
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WUC
UCLA · 2016
36-10
UpsetQuality opponent
WTE
Texas · 2016
50-43
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LST
Stanford · 2013
13-63
Rival
LST
Stanford · 2014
17-38
Rival
LST
Stanford · 2016
31-45
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-1 against his rivals at SMU. Just 1-2 against Philip Montgomery.
’18 L’19 W · erased a 21-pt deficit’20 L · blew a 21-pt lead
covered the spread
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
1-2 33.3%ATS —
National Program
5-6 45.5%ATS 6-5 11 of 11
Regional Program
14-5 73.7%ATS 9-10 19 of 19
Signature games
3-5 vs. AP top 25 · 0-1 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’18’19’20
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WTC
TCU · 2019
41-38
RivalUpsetQuality opponent
WHO
Houston · 2018
45-31
UpsetQuality opponent
WUS
South Florida · 2019
48-21
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LTC
TCU · 2018
12-42
Rival
LFA
Florida Atlantic · 2019
28-52
UpsetBowl/CFP stakes
LUC
UCF · 2018
20-48
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
7-2 against his rivals at TCU. Just 1-3 against Chris Klieman.
’22 W · erased a 18-pt deficit’22 L · blew a 7-pt lead’23 L’25 L · blew a 7-pt lead
covered the spread
25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0-1 0.0%ATS —
Power Program
8-5 61.5%ATS 7-6 13 of 13
National Program
21-14 60.0%ATS 18-17 35 of 35
Regional Program
6-1 85.7%ATS 3-3-1 7 of 7
Signature games
6-5 vs. AP top 25 · 1-2 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’22’23’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WBA
Baylor · 2023
42-17
RivalQuality opponent
WMI
Michigan · 2022
51-45
UpsetQuality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WUL
Louisiana · 2024
34-3
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
Signature losses
LUG
Georgia · 2022
7-65
National title game
LCU
Colorado · 2023
42-45
Upset
LSM
SMU · 2024
42-66
RivalUpset
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
8-9 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against David Shaw.
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0-1 0.0%ATS —
Blue Blood
0-4 0.0%ATS —
Power Program
15-23 39.5%ATS 15-20 35 of 38
National Program
36-39 48.0%ATS 33-29 62 of 75
Regional Program
40-13 75.5%ATS 14-19-1 34 of 53
Signature games
11-23 vs. AP top 25 · 1-10 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’10’12’13’14’15’16’18’19’20’22’23’25’26
swipe to see every season
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WBA
Baylor · 2023
42-17
RivalQuality opponent
WMI
Michigan · 2022
51-45
UpsetQuality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WUL
Louisiana · 2024
34-3
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
Signature losses
LST
Stanford · 2013
13-63
Rival
LTC
TCU · 2018
12-42
Rival
LUG
Georgia · 2022
7-65
National title game
These losses tie at the model's current max -- an editorial pick among a real tie, not a clean ranking.
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Defining games during this era
From our list of the 50 most defining games of the Playoff era, ranked by how much each game mattered, not by date.
Passed more than the situation called for under Briles.
3,619 run and pass snaps at TCU, 2022–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
Louisiana Tech2.9pt#435 of 449 · less than most
California5.1pt#394 of 449 · less than most
SMU5.3pt#387 of 449 · less than most
TCU10.9pt#205 of 449 · a typical amount
Building the roster
Six numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His 5 ranked TCU classes of his own have averaged #34 nationally — best #21, worst #47.
SMSMU
2018
#87
Transition
2019
#68
His class
2020
#81
His class
2021
#53
His class
TCTCU
2022
#45
His class
2023
#21
His class
2024
#34
His class
2025
#24
His class
2026
#47
His class
Across every program: 8 ranked classes of his own, averaging #47 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
at least1player
SMSMU→TCTCU2022
At least 1 player followed him from SMU to TCU.
Alan Ali OL
LTLouisiana Tech→CACalifornia2013
No confirmed followers on this move. This move predates this database’s 2021 transfer-portal tracking floor, so real followers may be undercounted here.
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
100%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 117 of 117 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 16% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
New players each season, 2022–2026
23% of his 262 new players since 2022 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 23%). His share was 16% in 2022 and 23% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 1 and worse than most in 2 of the 5 seasons graded. our read
202211 of 67Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season
202311 of 45Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season
202420 of 59Portal grade: better than most — #18 of 134 FBS programs that season
20259 of 48Portal grade: worse than most — #106 of 136 FBS programs that season
202610 of 43Portal grade: worse than most — #112 of 136 FBS programs that season
Came through the portalNon-portal arrivalsFBS-wide share that season
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
+3 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his TCU rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2022–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, TCU’s line averaged 9 lb heavier than the FBS average.
Louisiana Tech2010–2012−1 lb
California2013–2016+4 lb
SMU2018–2021−2 lb
TCU2022–2026+3 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
TXTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 91 of 113 signees (81%) across his 2022–2026 tenure, drawn from 9 states in all. Next: LA (7).
Where his signees came from, 2022–2026 (113 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
88% of his signees come from TX and its 4 border states (LA 7, OK 1).
Off this map: 6 signees to the west (CA 6), 1 to the north (MN) and 1 to the east (NJ).
By region
South
105
West
6
Midwest
1
Northeast
1
Roster distance from campus (Amon G. Carter Stadium, TX)
median hometown distance
207 mi
within 100 mi
32%
within 500 mi
80%
beyond 1,000 mi
12%
117 of 117 roster players with a known hometown (100% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
16Drafted
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. Most were someone else’s recruits: 11 arrived under Gary Patterson; 5 he brought in himself. 1 went in the first round.
His recruits 5Inherited 1116 roster-verified · 0 estimated
Most recent picks first
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R2.32
Bud Clark
Safety
Seattle Seahawks
recruited under Gary Patterson
2026
R4.26
Kaleb Elarms-Orr
Linebacker
Buffalo Bills
2026
R6.31
Namdi Obiazor
Linebacker
New England Patriots
2025
R2.26
Jack Bech
Wide Receiver
Las Vegas Raiders
2025
R3.23
Savion Williams
Wide Receiver
Green Bay Packers
recruited under Gary Patterson
2024
R3.03
Brandon Coleman
Offensive Guard
Washington Commanders
recruited under Gary Patterson
2024
R4.31
Jared Wiley
Tight End
Kansas City Chiefs
2024
R5.14
Josh Newton
Cornerback
Cincinnati Bengals
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2023
R1.22
Quentin Johnston
Wide Receiver
Los Angeles Chargers
recruited under Gary Patterson
2023
R2.05
Steve Avila
Offensive Guard
Los Angeles Rams
recruited under Gary Patterson
2023
R3.08
Kendre Miller
Running Back
New Orleans Saints
recruited under Gary Patterson
2023
R4.07
Dylan Horton
Defensive End
Houston Texans
recruited under Gary Patterson
2023
R4.23
Derius Davis
Wide Receiver
Los Angeles Chargers
recruited under Gary Patterson
2023
R6.05
Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson
Cornerback
Los Angeles Rams
recruited under Gary Patterson
2023
R6.39
Dee Winters
Inside Linebacker
San Francisco 49ers
recruited under Gary Patterson
2023
R7.22
Max Duggan
Quarterback
Los Angeles Chargers
recruited under Gary Patterson
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Bye week was good. I think we got a lot accomplished. I think number one we had to take a deep dive and look at everything we were doing and see why we probably hadn’t played our best
You know games like that usually come down to mistakes. We had a fourth down ball that ended up getting intercepted, that if we get the completion in the worst case scenario we end up kicking a field goal and all of a sudden they’ve got the ball in our 15 yard line
We want to be really intentional this year about honoring not only the women that have pulled off Christmas in Cowtown this year, but all the women that have made it what it is over the last 20 years
Nobody on the team can say they played their best, but we will learn from it and get better
I’ve seen Jaden practice and I know what it’s looked like. It didn’t really look like that today. I’m sure North Carolina had something to do with that…we just didn’t give ourselves a chance
Bye week was good. I think we got a lot accomplished. I think number one we had to take a deep dive and look at everything we were doing and see why we probably hadn’t played our best
Tcu360··the day before TCU's 2026 game against Baylor
You know games like that usually come down to mistakes. We had a fourth down ball that ended up getting intercepted, that if we get the completion in the worst case scenario we end up kicking a field goal and all of a sudden they’ve got the ball in our 15 yard line
We want to be really intentional this year about honoring not only the women that have pulled off Christmas in Cowtown this year, but all the women that have made it what it is over the last 20 years
I’ve seen Jaden practice and I know what it’s looked like. It didn’t really look like that today. I’m sure North Carolina had something to do with that…we just didn’t give ourselves a chance
Sonny Dykes moved TCU from Power Program III to Power Program II in 5 seasons.
+2.7 pts over 5 seasons · top 21% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
4th-best TCU tenure of 13 by the numbers.
Followed Gary Patterson (2000–2021).
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Trend
Record & result
Record
13-2
5-7
9-4
9-4
4-4
Postseason
Title game L
—
W bowl
W bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
A. J. Ricker / Garrett Riley
A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles
A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles
A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles
A. J. Ricker / Gordon Sammis
DC
Joe Gillespie
Joe Gillespie
Andy Avalos
Andy Avalos
Andy Avalos
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
86
65
84
69
26
Defense
35
40
54
58
95
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
39.9
57.1
57.0
50.1
45.6
Red-zone pass%
30.9
51.4
51.1
41.5
44.8
4th-down go%opp. territory
37.3
48.8
43.5
47.5
39.4
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+16.6 pts
#48 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
-11.4 pts
#154 of 208 · middle half
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 245 lbs
across 61 of 73 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.4 lbs
#116 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Jr
#13 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.1★
rated arrivals only
Top states: TX (31), LA (8), FL (3), MD (2), IN (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
59.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.8
position-weighted
Net
-2.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Ken Seals (QB) from Vanderbilt
Biggest loss: Josh Hoover (QB) to Indiana
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: A. J. Ricker (co) / Garrett Riley → A. J. Ricker (co) / Kendal Briles · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.9% → 57.1% (+17.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 14% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: A. J. Ricker (co) / Kendal Briles → A. J. Ricker (co) / Gordon Sammis · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 50.1% → 45.6% (-4.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 22% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Joe Gillespie → Andy Avalos · 2024The system held
2-season window either side.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
73%
#160 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2022: Beat Michigan 51-45 CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl2022: Lost to Georgia 7-65 CFP National Championship pres. by AT&T2024: Beat Louisiana 34-3 Isleta New Mexico Bowl2025: Beat USC 30-27 Valero Alamo Bowl
Coach of the Year: Big 12 Chuck Neinas Coach of the Year (2022)
2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Tre Tomlinson (2022), Steve Avila (2022)
AI Narratives — “TCU's Offseason Moves: Stability Amid Changes” and 3 more on the team page.
Sonny Dykes moved SMU from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.
+9.4 pts over 4 seasons · top 6% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
12th-best SMU tenure of 18 by the numbers.
Followed Chad Morris (2015–2017) · succeeded by Jim Leavitt (2021).
System Shift, on departure
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2018
2019
2020
2021
Trend
Record & result
Record
5-7
10-3
7-3
8-4
Postseason
—
L bowl
—
—
Coordinators
OC
Rhett Lashlee
Rhett Lashlee
A. J. Ricker / Garrett Riley
A. J. Ricker / Garrett Riley
DC
Kevin Kane
Kevin Kane
Kevin Kane
Jim Leavitt
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
22
73
74
68
Defense
45
43
28
25
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
47.6
43.9
44.0
48.3
Red-zone pass%
48.6
45.4
49.1
39.3
4th-down go%opp. territory
45.2
47.1
33.3
37.1
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+9.0 pts
#67 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
-15.2 pts
#166 of 208 · bottom quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
14
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
9
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+5
#83 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 239 lbs
across 9 of 14 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.0 lbs
#124 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: TX (7), CA (1), HI (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
38.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
33.3
position-weighted
Net
+5.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jahari Rogers (CB) from Florida
Biggest loss: Carson Welch (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
75%
#16 of 188 stints
Buys Athlete via the portal
14%
#32 of 146 stints
Grows Running back from high school
80%
#181 of 208 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
83%
#183 of 225 stints
Postseason detail2019: Lost to Florida Atlantic 28-52 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
5 NFL Draft picks: James Proche (2020), Brandon Stephens (2021), Kylen Granson (2021), Danny Gray (2022), Grant Calcaterra (2022)
Sonny Dykes slid California from National Program I to National Program II in 4 seasons.
−7.1 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 24% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
10th-best California tenure of 19 by the numbers.
Followed Jeff Tedford (2002–2012) · succeeded by Justin Wilcox (2017–2025).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
swipe to see every season
Season
2013
2014
2015
2016
Trend
Record & result
Record
1-11
5-7
8-5
5-7
Postseason
—
—
W bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
—
Tony Franklin
Tony Franklin
Jake Spavital
DC
—
Art Kaufman
Art Kaufman
Art Kaufman
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
29
72
94
63
Defense
28
12
17
4
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
57.3
47.9
53.8
57.1
Red-zone pass%
50.7
47.7
55.6
52.0
4th-down go%opp. territory
35.7
36.6
45.0
35.4
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+23.9 pts
#25 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
-44.2 pts
#208 of 208 · bottom quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Tony Franklin → Jake Spavital · 2016
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 53.8% → 57.1% (+3.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 15% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Beat Air Force 55-36 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
9 NFL Draft picks: Richard Rodgers (2014), Khairi Fortt (2014), Jared Goff (2016), Trevor Davis (2016), Daniel Lasco (2016), Kenny Lawler (2016), Davis Webb (2017), Chad Hansen (2017) + 1 more
SMU
California
Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots
Las Vegas Raiders
Green Bay Packers
Washington Commanders
Kansas City Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans Saints
Houston Texans
San Francisco 49ers
