TCU: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2022–now

Sonny Dykes Steady ◆ COY

Sonny Dykes moved TCU from Power Program III to Power Program II in 5 seasons.

2026 defense ranked in the 95th percentile nationally — elite

+2.7 pts over 5 seasons · top 21% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Art Briles’s Houston run (2003–2007)

4th-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Gary Patterson (2000–2021).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	13-2	5-7	9-4	9-4	4-4
Postseason	Title game L	—	W bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#45	#21	#34	#24	#47
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.5	55.3	55.5	51.5	50.5
Coordinators
OC	A. J. Ricker / Garrett Riley	A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles	A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles	A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles	A. J. Ricker / Gordon Sammis
DC	Joe Gillespie	Joe Gillespie	Andy Avalos	Andy Avalos	Andy Avalos
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	86	65	84	69	26
Defense	35	40	54	58	95
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	39.9	57.1	57.0	50.1	45.6
Red-zone pass%	30.9	51.4	51.1	41.5	44.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	37.3	48.8	43.5	47.5	39.4

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+16.6 pts

#48 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

-11.4 pts

#154 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-15

#78 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 245 lbs

across 61 of 73 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+4.4 lbs

#116 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#13 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: TX (31), LA (8), FL (3), MD (2), IN (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

59.0

position-weighted

Talent lost

61.8

position-weighted

Net

-2.8

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Ken Seals (QB) from Vanderbilt

Biggest loss: Josh Hoover (QB) to Indiana

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: A. J. Ricker (co) / Garrett Riley → A. J. Ricker (co) / Kendal Briles · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 39.9% → 57.1% (+17.2 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 14% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: A. J. Ricker (co) / Kendal Briles → A. J. Ricker (co) / Gordon Sammis · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 50.1% → 45.6% (-4.6 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 22% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Joe Gillespie → Andy Avalos · 2024The system held

2-season window either side.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

203 lbs

6′2″ avg · #650 of 767 · bottom quarter

Running back

204 lbs

5′11″ avg · #529 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

200 lbs

6′1″ avg · #107 of 791 · top quarter

Tight end

249 lbs

6′5″ avg · #225 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

313 lbs

6′5″ avg · #243 of 779 · middle half

D-line

296 lbs

6′3″ avg · #152 of 753 · top quarter

Edge

246 lbs

6′4″ avg · #148 of 188 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

224 lbs

6′2″ avg · #590 of 772 · bottom quarter

Cornerback

190 lbs

6′1″ avg · #412 of 771 · middle half

Safety

193 lbs

6′1″ avg · #255 of 346 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

73%

#160 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2022: Beat Michigan 51-45 CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl2022: Lost to Georgia 7-65 CFP National Championship pres. by AT&T2024: Beat Louisiana 34-3 Isleta New Mexico Bowl2025: Beat USC 30-27 Valero Alamo Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: Quentin Johnston (2023), Steve Avila (2023), Kendre Miller (2023), Dylan Horton (2023), Derius Davis (2023), Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (2023), Dee Winters (2023), Max Duggan (2023) + 8 more

Coach of the Year: Big 12 Chuck Neinas Coach of the Year (2022)

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Tre Tomlinson (2022), Steve Avila (2022)

AI Narratives — “TCU's Offseason Moves: Stability Amid Changes” and 3 more on the team page.

+2.7

40-21

2021

Jerry Kill Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

2-2

2000–2021

Gary Patterson Transformer

Gary Patterson took the Horned Frogs from National Program III to Power Program I.

2006 defense ranked in the 100th percentile nationally — elite

+26.0 pts over 21 seasons · top 14% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bob Stoops’s Oklahoma run (1999–2016, 2021 (1 game))

2nd-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Dennis Franchione (1998–2000) · succeeded by Jerry Kill (2021).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Record & result
Record	0-1	6-6	10-2	11-2	5-6	11-1	11-2	8-5	11-2	12-1	13-0	11-2	7-6	4-8	12-1	11-2	6-7	11-3	7-6	5-7	6-4	3-5
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	#50	#50	#58	#55	#74	#44	#47	#28	#29	#35	#43	#39	#21	#28	#25	#33	#28	#61
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	43.4	41.3	38.7	43.6	36.6	35.4	35.6	39.7	44.0	51.0	51.0	48.0	50.8	44.7	45.2	43.6	39.9	39.6
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Doug Meacham / Sonny Cumbie	Doug Meacham / Sonny Cumbie	Doug Meacham / Sonny Cumbie	Curtis Luper / Sonny Cumbie	Curtis Luper / Sonny Cumbie	Curtis Luper / Sonny Cumbie	Sonny Cumbie	Doug Meacham
DC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Dick Bumpas	Chad Glasgow / DeMontie Cross	Chad Glasgow	Chad Glasgow	Chad Glasgow	Chad Glasgow	Chad Glasgow	Chad Glasgow
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	34	60	92	39	87	60	97	89	41	5	84	73	44	70	6	26	70	64
Defense	—	—	—	—	58	92	100	92	97	98	91	82	96	92	99	80	38	88	87	78	82	7
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	33.3	39.7	39.7	40.8	35.8	36.4	36.5	37.1	40.5	50.0	45.1	44.3	50.3	44.4	42.0	38.5	37.5	41.8
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	33.3	23.8	30.4	25.5	27.4	26.5	27.4	34.4	36.5	27.0	39.0	36.6	45.4	36.2	40.2	36.0	26.9	36.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	27.1	15.0	31.1	23.0	21.2	25.0	24.1	25.5	24.4	21.2	26.0	24.4	25.6	23.4	20.5	25.0	41.0

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-7.2 pts

#141 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+8.7 pts

#65 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.2★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-17

#160 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 252 lbs

across 5 of 6 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+23.3 lbs

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: TN (2), LA (1), TX (1), FL (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

23.2

position-weighted

Talent lost

50.7

position-weighted

Net

-27.5

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: T.J. Carter (CB) from Memphis

Biggest loss: Wilson Long (QB) to Vanderbilt

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Doug Meacham (co) / Sonny Cumbie (co) → Curtis Luper (co) / Sonny Cumbie (co) · 2017The offense slipped

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 47.3% → 43.2% (-4.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 101% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Curtis Luper (co) / Sonny Cumbie (co) → Sonny Cumbie · 2020

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 38.5% → 37.5% (-1.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 73% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Dick Bumpas → Chad Glasgow (co) / DeMontie Cross (co) · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Chad Glasgow (co) / DeMontie Cross (co) → Chad Glasgow · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

206 lbs

6′1″ avg · #569 of 767 · middle half

Running back

210 lbs

5′11″ avg · #260 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

194 lbs

6′0″ avg · #329 of 791 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

320 lbs

6′4″ avg · #52 of 779 · top quarter

D-line

299 lbs

6′2″ avg · #108 of 753 · top quarter

Linebacker

227 lbs

6′2″ avg · #436 of 772 · middle half

Safety

190 lbs

6′0″ avg · #309 of 346 · bottom quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

91%

#163 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2000: Lost to Southern Miss 21-28 Bowl2001: Lost to Texas A&M 9-28 Bowl2002: Beat Colorado State 17-3 Bowl2003: Lost to Boise State 31-34 Bowl2005: Beat Iowa State 27-24 Bowl2006: Beat Northern Illinois 37-7 Bowl2007: Beat Houston 20-13 Bowl2008: Beat Boise State 17-16 Bowl2009: Lost to Boise State 10-17 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl2010: Beat Wisconsin 21-19 Rose Bowl Game Presented By Vizio2011: Beat Louisiana Tech 31-24 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl2012: Lost to Michigan State 16-17 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl2014: Beat Ole Miss 42-3 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl2015: Beat Oregon 47-41 Valero Alamo Bowl2016: Lost to Georgia 23-31 Bowl2017: Beat Stanford 39-37 Valero Alamo Bowl2018: Beat California 10-7 Cheez-It Bowl

49 NFL Draft picks: Matt Schobel (2002), Adrian Madise (2003), LaTarence Dunbar (2003), Bo Schobel (2004), Anthony Alabi (2005), Cory Rodgers (2006), Michael Toudouze (2006), Drew Coleman (2006) + 41 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Trevon Moehrig (2020)

+26.0

181-79

1998–2000

Dennis Franchione Builder

Dennis Franchione raised TCU from Regional Program III to National Program III.

+14.4 pts over 3 seasons · top 2% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dan Hawkins’s Boise State run (2001–2005)

6th-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Pat Sullivan (1992–1997) · succeeded by Gary Patterson (2000–2021).

Season	1998	1999	2000
Record & result
Record	7-5	8-4	10-1
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Postseason detail1998: Beat USC 28-19 Bowl1999: Beat East Carolina 28-14 Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: LaDainian Tomlinson (2001), Aaron Schobel (2001), George Layne (2001), Curtis Fuller (2001), Shawn Worthen (2001), Cedric James (2001)

+14.4

25-10

1992–1997

Pat Sullivan Steady

Pat Sullivan held TCU at Regional Program III for 6 seasons.

+1.0 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 44% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: John Mackovic’s Texas run (1992–1997)

8th-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Wacker (1983–1991) · succeeded by Dennis Franchione (1998–2000).

Season	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997
Record & result
Record	2-8-1	4-7	7-5	6-5	4-7	1-10
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1994: Lost to Virginia 10-20 Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Barret Robbins (1995), Jimmy Oliver (1995), Ryan Tucker (1997), Jason Tucker (1998), Chance McCarty (1998)

+1.0

24-42-1

1983–1991

Jim Wacker Steady

Jim Wacker moved the Horned Frogs from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 9 seasons.

+5.6 pts over 9 seasons · top 32% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Kevin Sumlin’s Texas A&M run (2012–2017)

10th-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed F. Dry (1977–1982) · succeeded by Pat Sullivan (1992–1997).

Season	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991
Record & result
Record	1-8-2	8-4	3-8	3-8	5-6	4-7	4-7	5-6	7-4
Postseason	—	L bowl	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1984: Lost to West Virginia 14-31 Bowl

10 NFL Draft picks: Kyle Clifton (1984), Robert Lyles (1984), Sean Thomas (1985), James Maness (1985), Kenneth Davis (1986), Mitchell Benson (1989), Stanley Petry (1989), Fred Washington (1990) + 2 more

+5.6

40-58-2

1977–1982

F. Dry Steady

F. Dry held the Horned Frogs at Regional Program IV for 6 seasons.

−2.2 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 35% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Randy Walker’s Northwestern run (1999–2005)

11th-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Shofner (1974–1976) · succeeded by Jim Wacker (1983–1991).

5 NFL Draft picks: Mike Renfro (1978), James Wright (1978), Wesley Roberts (1980), Greg Townsend (1983), Darrell Patterson (1983)

−2.2

12-51-3

1974–1976

Jim Shofner Steady

Jim Shofner slid TCU from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 3 seasons.

−10.9 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 10% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bob Davie’s Notre Dame run (1997–2001)

9th-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Billy Tohill (1971–1973) · succeeded by F. Dry (1977–1982).

1 NFL Draft pick: Merle Wang (1975)

−10.9

2-31

1971–1973

Billy Tohill Steady

Billy Tohill held the Horned Frogs at Regional Program I for 3 seasons.

−2.8 pts over 3 seasons · top 48% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mick Dennehy’s Utah State run (2000–2004)

7th-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Fred Taylor (1967–1970) · succeeded by Jim Shofner (1974–1976).

1 NFL Draft pick: Guy Morriss (1973)

−2.8

11-15

1971

Jim Pittman Short tenure

3-3-1

1967–1970

Fred Taylor Steady

Fred Taylor slid the Horned Frogs from National Program II to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

−8.6 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 18% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mark Duffner’s Maryland run (1992–1996)

5th-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Abe Martin (1953–1966) · succeeded by Jim Pittman (1971).

4 NFL Draft picks: Mickey McCarty (1968), Ross Montgomery (1969), Larry Adams (1969), Norman Bulaich (1970)

−8.6

15-25-1

1953–1966

Abe Martin Builder

Abe Martin raised the Horned Frogs from National Program I to Power Program II.

+14.2 pts over 14 seasons · top 41% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rick Minter’s Cincinnati run (1994–2003)

3rd-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Dutch Meyer (1936–1952) · succeeded by Fred Taylor (1967–1970).

+14.2

74-64-7

1936–1952

Dutch Meyer Steady

Dutch Meyer held TCU at Power Program I for 17 seasons.

1st-best TCU tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Abe Martin (1953–1966).

Power Program I

89-74-13