Playoff odds1% → 2%CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Saturday: vs. RICERice
Sat Nov 7, 4 pm ET ESPNU · RICERice is 1-7 · First meeting between Brown and Scott Abell as head coaches · North Texas’s chance to win: 90% (the site’s model)
TALARICO HAS WON DENTON https://i.redd.it/g7r5nfrgxhzh1.png
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Heisman of Week 9 Bill Connelly finally gets around to noticing Tayven and throws Jaheim White in the mix as well... this is the kind of pub that you need if you want to be ranked https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/50359490/heisman-week-9-lanorris-sellers-darian-mensah
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 1st of 138 per play. Defense: 46th.
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is North Texas. The other two rows are where North Texas stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Sat Nov 7vs. RICERice (1-7)ESPNU90%
Sat Nov 14at UTSAUTSA (7-1)ESPNU35%
Sat Nov 21at TULNTulane (4-4)67%
Sat Nov 28vs. UABUAB (4-4)71%
Percent: North Texas’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where North Texas stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 63-14 vs. HCUHouston Christian1 headline · 83rd of 138
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▼ Lower
His first season at North Texas
▲ Higher
His team is 6-2, outscoring opponents by 11.9 points a game
▲ Higher
No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 29W 48-41 vs. Florida AtlanticIt’s a Neal Brown G6 night!UNTNorth Texas fan
Oct 24W 49-39 at NavyNeal Brown is notorious for blowing up big leads with his horrible play calling on 3rd downsUNTNorth Texas fan
Oct 10W 50-10 vs. CharlotteAt least Neal brown knows how to take care of business compared to SchottenheimerUNTNorth Texas fan
Earlier weeks
Oct 1W 45-44 at TulsaCool, here’s the Neal Brown that WVU flairs warned us aboutUNTNorth Texas fan
Sep 19L 35-49 at Texas StateAccording to the announcers, they did review it, quickly. If Coach Brown wasn't satisfied, he should have thrown his challenge flag.UNTNorth Texas fan
Sep 12W 44-6 vs. UNLVNow, I don’t want the Neal Brown that all the WVU flairs warned us about, where we win 27-20UNTNorth Texas fan
Sep 5L 16-52 at IndianaIn Neal Brown I trustUNTNorth Texas fan
Several stories about him in the last 30 days
Sat Nov 7: Rice
from several outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2019). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
2-2 against his rivals at Troy. Just 1-2 against Joey Jones.
’15 L · blew a 1-pt lead’16 W · erased a 14-pt deficit’17 L
covered the spread
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1-1 50.0%ATS —
Power Program
1-3 25.0%ATS —
National Program
1-5 16.7%ATS 2-3-1 6 of 6
Regional Program
28-7 80.0%ATS 19-14-2 35 of 35
Signature games
1-3 vs. AP top 25 · 0-1 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’15’16’17’18
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WLS
LSU · 2017
24-21
UpsetQuality opponent
WUS
South Alabama · 2018
38-17
RivalQuality opponent
WUN
North Texas · 2017
50-30
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
Signature losses
LUS
South Alabama · 2017
8-19
RivalUpset
LAR
Arkansas State · 2016
3-35
Upset
LGA
Georgia Southern · 2015
10-45
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-2 against his rivals at West Virginia. Just 1-4 against Matt Campbell.
’19 L · blew a 7-pt lead’20 L’21 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’22 L’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead
covered the spread
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
9-18 33.3%ATS 12-15 27 of 27
National Program
17-15 53.1%ATS 17-15 32 of 32
Regional Program
5-2 71.4%ATS 2-4-1 7 of 7
Signature games
3-17 vs. AP top 25 · 0-5 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’19’20’21’22’23’24
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WUN
North Carolina · 2023
30-10
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WPI
Pittsburgh · 2023
17-6
RivalQuality opponent
WOU
Oklahoma · 2022
23-20
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LMI
Minnesota · 2021
6-18
Bowl/CFP stakes
LPI
Pittsburgh · 2022
31-38
Rival
LKU
Kansas · 2022
42-55
Upset
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
One-score games
2-0
100.0% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
5-3
all 8 had a line
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0-1 0.0%
National Program
1-0 100.0%
Regional Program
4-1 80.0%
Signature games
0-1 vs. AP top 25 · 0-1 vs. the top 10
Signature wins
WUN
UNLV · 2026
44-6
UpsetQuality opponent
WNA
Navy · 2026
49-39
Quality opponent
WCL
Charlotte · 2026
50-10
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LIN
Indiana · 2026
16-52
LTX
Texas State · 2026
35-49
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
3-4 against his rivals. Just 1-4 against Matt Campbell.
’19 L · blew a 7-pt lead’20 L’21 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’22 L’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead
covered the spread
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1-1 50.0%ATS —
Power Program
10-22 31.2%ATS 15-16-1 32 of 32
National Program
19-20 48.7%ATS 20-18-1 39 of 39
Regional Program
37-10 78.7%ATS 23-21-3 47 of 47
Signature games
4-21 vs. AP top 25 · 0-7 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’15’16’17’18’19’20’21’22’23’24’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WLS
LSU · 2017
24-21
UpsetQuality opponent
WUN
North Carolina · 2023
30-10
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WPI
Pittsburgh · 2023
17-6
RivalQuality opponent
Signature losses
LUS
South Alabama · 2017
8-19
RivalUpset
LMI
Minnesota · 2021
6-18
Bowl/CFP stakes
LPI
Pittsburgh · 2022
31-38
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that moved, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
Troy9.2pt#259 of 449 · a typical amount
West Virginia20.6pt#24 of 449 · more than most
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
None of his North Texas classes is ranked and fully his yet. Across his other stops, his own classes averaged #51 nationally.
TRTroy
2018
#98
His class
WVWest Virginia
2019
#48
Transition
2020
#37
His class
2021
#40
His class
2022
#35
His class
2023
#48
His class
2024
#46
His class
UNNorth Texas
2026
#135
Transition
Across every program: 6 ranked classes of his own, averaging #51 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
TRTroy→WVWest Virginia2019
No confirmed followers on this move. This move predates this database’s 2021 transfer-portal tracking floor, so real followers may be undercounted here.
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
67%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 72 of 108 players. The other 36 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 72Inherited 36
Of his own players on this roster, 50% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 50% of the 72 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
+6 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his West Virginia rosters have averaged 6 lb heavier than the FBS average (2019–2024) — heavier than 82% of FBS coaching runs since 2010. In the three seasons before he arrived, West Virginia’s line averaged 8 lb heavier than the FBS average.
Troy2015–2018+3 lb
West Virginia2019–2024+6 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
TXTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 10 of 12 signees (83%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 3 states in all. Next: CT (1).
Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (12 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
TX
10
CT
1
NV
1
Roster distance from campus (DATCU Stadium, TX)
median hometown distance
231 mi
within 100 mi
40%
within 500 mi
68%
beyond 1,000 mi
14%
105 of 108 roster players with a known hometown (97% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.
Career
Hires into jobs like this
Hired into programs rated 15 to 16 (Regional Program III tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 1 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 4 lower. Median stay: 5 seasons; 1 left mid-season.
Every coach hired into a Regional Program III job since 1990 (86): typically -0.8 after year 1, +0.2 after year 2.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 223 lbs
across 36 of 49 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-5.8 lbs
#254 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: TX (14), GA (5), FL (4), PA (3), IN (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.1
position-weighted
Net
-4.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tayven Jackson (QB) from UCF
Biggest loss: Drew Mestemaker (QB) to Oklahoma State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Neal Brown slid West Virginia from Power Program III to National Program I in 6 seasons.
−8.5 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 9% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)
6th-best West Virginia tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Followed Dana Holgorsen (2011–2018) · succeeded by Rich Rodriguez (2025–now).
System Shift, on departure
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Trend
Record & result
Record
5-7
6-4
6-7
5-7
9-4
6-6
Postseason
—
W bowl
L bowl
—
W bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
Chad Scott / Matt Moore
Chad Scott / Gerad Parker
Chad Scott / Gerad Parker
Graham Harrell
Chad Scott
Chad Scott
DC
Vic Koenning
Jordan Lesley / Jahmile Addae / Jeff Koonz
Jordan Lesley / ShaDon Brown
Jordan Lesley / ShaDon Brown
Jordan Lesley / ShaDon Brown
ShaDon Brown / Jordan Lesley (5th season; first 8 games) / Jeff Koonz (interim; after week 9)
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
10
37
33
52
83
58
Defense
52
79
75
47
35
3
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
56.0
56.1
49.1
52.0
38.7
36.0
Red-zone pass%
49.4
57.6
49.6
45.4
31.7
35.3
4th-down go%opp. territory
30.8
36.1
40.8
46.2
54.1
61.2
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
-8.7 pts
#144 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
-5.2 pts
#130 of 208 · middle half
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
40
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
95
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-55
#125 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 228 lbs
across 37 of 40 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+7.4 lbs
#50 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: GA (5), TX (4), WV (3), SC (3), PA (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
58.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.3
position-weighted
Net
-3.3
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: JT Daniels (QB) from Georgia
Biggest loss: JT Daniels (QB) to Rice
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Chad Scott (co) / Matt Moore → Chad Scott (co) / Gerad Parker · 2020
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 56.0% → 56.1% (+0.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 88% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Chad Scott (co) / Gerad Parker → Graham Harrell · 2022
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 49.1% → 52.0% (+2.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 19% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Graham Harrell → Chad Scott · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 52.0% → 38.7% (-13.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 35% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Vic Koenning → Jordan Lesley / Jahmile Addae (co) / Jeff Koonz (co) · 2020
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Jordan Lesley / Jahmile Addae (co) / Jeff Koonz (co) → Jordan Lesley / ShaDon Brown (co) · 2021
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Athlete via the portal
14%
#32 of 146 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
78%
#144 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
73%
#160 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2020: Beat Army 24-21 AutoZone Liberty Bowl2021: Lost to Minnesota 6-18 Guaranteed Rate Bowl2023: Beat North Carolina 30-10 Duke's Mayo Bowl
Neal Brown moved Troy from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.
+6.8 pts over 4 seasons · top 10% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
5th-best Troy tenure of 7 by the numbers.
Followed Larry Blakeney (2001–2014) · succeeded by Chip Lindsey (2019–2021).
System Shift, on departure
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2015
2016
2017
2018
Trend
Record & result
Record
4-8
10-3
11-2
10-3
Postseason
—
W bowl
W bowl
W bowl
Coordinators
OC
Kenny Edenfield
Kenny Edenfield / Matt Moore
Kenny Edenfield / Matt Moore
Matt Moore / Sean Reagan
DC
Vic Koenning
Vic Koenning
Vic Koenning
Vic Koenning
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
35
16
74
45
Defense
44
60
93
69
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
54.5
46.5
47.7
46.6
Red-zone pass%
42.7
43.3
45.2
44.9
4th-down go%opp. territory
21.9
39.5
41.5
33.3
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+3.0 pts
#98 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
+25.7 pts
#12 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Kenny Edenfield (co) / Matt Moore (co) → Matt Moore (co) / Sean Reagan (co) · 2018
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.7% → 46.6% (-1.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 42% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2016: Beat Ohio 28-23 Dollar General Bowl2017: Beat North Texas 50-30 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2018: Beat Buffalo 42-32 Dollar General Bowl
1 NFL Draft pick: Antonio Garcia (2017)
35-16
Was he good?
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
The data leans positive, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.