Jacksonville State beats New Mexico State 24-0
Team pages: Jacksonville State · New Mexico State
Jacksonville State beat New Mexico State 24-0. Share this game
We had Jacksonville State favored. It won.
Next: Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston, Sat Nov 7 · 7:00 PM ET
Next: New Mexico State vs Liberty, Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ET
A flag for leapfrog? Cmon now, that's soft
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Jacksonville State a 70% chance, and the closing betting line (Jacksonville State was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
Jacksonville State won by 24, after dipping to 41% in the first quarter.
New Mexico State never had better than a 59% chance.
Jacksonville State 24-0 New Mexico State
Jacksonville State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.New Mexico State 0-24 Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q2 12:33Creel 3-yd TD run, Jacksonville State goes ahead 7-0Jacksonville State 60% → 73% (+13)
The play that swung it
- 1Q2 12:33Creel 3-yd TD run, Jacksonville State goes ahead 7-0New Mexico State 40% → 27% (−13)
Why am I watching this rn
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 6:51Creel 1-yd run, turnover on downs
Old ass man Session carrying the Aggie defense
r/CFB game thread - Q3 2:46Woods intercepts Washington, Creel runs 84 yards, Likely scores touchdown
What a sequence, wow. Sucks for the injured guy but at least he got that int Hell of a run by the other guy, idk names
r/CFB game thread - Q4 13:04NMSU misses a 34-yard field goal, leaving Jacksonville State up 17-0
- Q4 5:35A player was flagged for a celebration penalty.
He did at least wait until the third leap before throwing the flag.
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Jacksonville State -3), at 54% for Jacksonville State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Every drive
Jacksonville State scored on 4 of its 9 drives; New Mexico State on 0 of its 9.
Jacksonville State’s drives are teal, New Mexico State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
When fans got loud
Roaring
Fans peaked in the fourth quarter.
The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.
What it cost
Jacksonville State’s chance to win the conference rose from 27% to 32%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 28, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Jacksonville State plays vs Sam Houston on Sat Nov 7 with a 32% chance to win the conference. New Mexico State plays vs Liberty on Sat Nov 7 with a 0% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Jacksonville State 24, New Mexico State 0
Jacksonville State covered −3 by 21. The total, 24, stayed under 50.5.
| Team totals | Jacksonville State | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 433 | 221 |
| Passing | 11 of 17, 109 yds | 6 of 19, 29 yds |
| Rushing | 46 for 324 yds | 34 for 192 yds |
| First downs | 23 | 11 |
| Third down | 6 of 11 | 7 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Penalties | 6 for 40 yds | 6 for 50 yds |
| Time of possession | 35:18 | 24:42 |
Jacksonville State leaders
- Passing Caden Creel 11 of 17, 109 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Caden Creel 21 for 211 yds, 1 TD; Jalen Likely 4 for 39 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Luke Gilbert 5 for 67 yds, 1 TD; Khristian Lando 1 for 10 yds
New Mexico State leaders
- Passing Adam Damante 6 of 19, 29 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing James Jones 20 for 112 yds; Terrell Washington Jr. 10 for 70 yds
- Receiving Brodrick Malone 3 for 19 yds; AJ Williams III 2 for 12 yds
No rain through the game
71° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Game-day temperatures at Aggie Memorial Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Las Cruces International airport, 11 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Jacksonville State · 5-2
Rated 66th in our preseason ratings, 83rd now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
L 27-29 @ Ohio No. 54 of 668 teams
lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog
Last three games
New Mexico State · 3-4
Rated 150th in our preseason ratings, 147th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 18-42 vs New Mexico No. 58 of 668 teams
lost by 24 as an 11.5-point underdog
Week by week
New Mexico State
- Wk 2Lat Hawai'i19-29
- Wk 4Lvs New Mexico18-42
- Wk 5Wvs Western Kentucky34-13
- Wk 6Lat Florida International3-22
- Wk 8Wat Sam Houston30-24
Jacksonville State
- Wk 2Lat Ohio27-29
- Wk 3Wvs Georgia Southern31-27
- Wk 4Wvs Middle Tennessee23-13
- Wk 6Wat Kennesaw State27-26
- Wk 7Wvs Florida International27-24
Power rating by week
Jacksonville State is rated 5.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: New Mexico State’s passing EPA against Jacksonville State, 87 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
New Mexico State’s passing EPA against Jacksonville State’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 3rd percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 90th
New Mexico State’s EPA/play against Jacksonville State’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 9th percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 59th
New Mexico State’s explosive plays against Jacksonville State’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 61st percentile · Jacksonville State defense, 94th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
The series is tied 1-1
2 meetings since 2023 · Jacksonville State won the last meeting
- 2024Jacksonville State 54-13
- 2023New Mexico State 20-17
Each line is New Mexico State’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
New Mexico State fans are in a better mood than Jacksonville State fans (76th percentile vs 32nd among FBS fanbases), even with Jacksonville State favored.
- Model · 30%
- Line · 40%
- New Mexico State fans · 76th
- Jacksonville State fans · 32nd
Jacksonville State favored by 3 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Jacksonville State by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 290 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
New Mexico State is worth +6.7 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 89th percentile.
38% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (13-21 home, 11-39 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.7 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,217 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- New Mexico State 20, Jacksonville State 17Nov 25, 2023
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- New Mexico State3rd2-1
- Jacksonville State1st3-0