Jacksonville State beats Middle Tennessee 23-13
Team pages: Middle Tennessee · Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee 23-13. Share this game
We had Jacksonville State favored. It won.
Next: Middle Tennessee lost to Kansas 55-0, Sat Oct 3
Next: Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw State 27-26, Wed Oct 7
How it swung
The turning point: Creel 38-yd TD pass to Johnson, Jacksonville State goes ahead 20-13 (Q3, 1:15). Jacksonville State went from 72% to 90% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Jacksonville State a 75% chance, and the closing betting line (Jacksonville State was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.
Favored the whole way: Jacksonville State never fell below 56%.
Middle Tennessee never had better than a 43% chance.
Jacksonville State 23-13 Middle Tennessee
Jacksonville State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Middle Tennessee 13-23 Jacksonville StateMiddle Tennessee lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 10:11Gagliano 32-yd TD pass to Allen, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 13-10Jacksonville State 72% → 57% (−15)
- 2Q3 1:15Creel 38-yd TD pass to Johnson, Jacksonville State goes ahead 20-13Jacksonville State 72% → 90% (+18)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 10:11Gagliano 32-yd TD pass to Allen, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 13-10Middle Tennessee 28% → 43% (+15)
- 2Q3 1:15Creel 38-yd TD pass to Johnson, Jacksonville State goes ahead 20-13Middle Tennessee 28% → 10% (−18)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Jacksonville State -7), at 77% for Jacksonville State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Jacksonville State scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Middle Tennessee on 2 of its 8.
Jacksonville State’s drives are teal, Middle Tennessee’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Middle Tennessee’s side
Middle Tennessee’s best moment: Gagliano 32-yd TD pass to Allen, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 13-10 (Q3 10:11). It lifted Middle Tennessee’s win chance by 15 points.
What it cost
Jacksonville State’s chance to win the conference rose from 20% to 24%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Jacksonville State 23, Middle Tennessee 13
Jacksonville State covered −7 by 3. The total, 36, stayed under 50.5.
| Team totals | Middle Tennessee | Jacksonville State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 319 | 517 |
| Passing | 18 of 28, 216 yds | 19 of 27, 241 yds |
| Rushing | 30 for 103 yds | 39 for 276 yds |
| First downs | 20 | 25 |
| Third down | 4 of 11 | 3 of 9 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Penalties | 7 for 55 yds | 3 for 30 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:22 | 32:38 |
Middle Tennessee leaders
- Passing Roman Gagliano 18 of 28, 216 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Antonio Martin 17 for 106 yds; Terrence Brown Jr. 8 for 30 yds
- Receiving Cam'Ron Lacy 6 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Terrence Brown Jr. 4 for 33 yds
Jacksonville State leaders
- Passing Caden Creel 19 of 27, 241 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Caden Creel 12 for 119 yds, 1 TD; Lucas Farrington 12 for 94 yds
- Receiving Deondre Johnson 3 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Darius Cannon 6 for 48 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Middle Tennessee · 2-1
Rated 133rd in our preseason ratings, 124th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Nevada as a 3.5-point underdog.
W 27-20 vs Nevada #182 of 668
won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
Last 4 games
Jacksonville State · 2-2
Rated 66th in our preseason ratings, 62nd now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 27-29 @ Ohio #54 of 668
lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog
Week by week
Jacksonville State
- Wk 1Lat North Dakota State7-33
- Wk 1Wvs Eastern Kentucky49-7
- Wk 2Lat Ohio27-29
- Wk 3Wvs Georgia Southern31-27
Middle Tennessee
- Wk 1Wvs Murray State38-14
- Wk 2Lat Marshall26-28
- Wk 3Wvs Nevada27-20
Power rating by week
Jacksonville State is rated 5.6 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Jacksonville State’s success rate against Middle Tennessee, 66 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Jacksonville State’s success rate against Middle Tennessee’s defense
Jacksonville State offense, 73rd percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 7th
Jacksonville State’s explosive plays against Middle Tennessee’s defense
Jacksonville State offense, 35th percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 70th
Jacksonville State’s passing EPA against Middle Tennessee’s defense
Jacksonville State offense, 72nd percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 40th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Jacksonville State leads the series 3-0
3 meetings since 2023 · Jacksonville State has won the last 3
- 2025Jacksonville State 24-21
- 2024Jacksonville State 42-20
- 2023Jacksonville State 45-30
Each line is Jacksonville State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Jacksonville State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (58th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Jacksonville State favored by 7 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Jacksonville State by 7, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Middle Tennessee.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −9.5 → −7 · Total: 54.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Jacksonville State is worth +7.7 points (±5.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 97th percentile.
86% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (18-3 home, 11-16 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 54 games — inside the ±7.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 144 miles to get here.