North Dakota State 33-7 Jacksonville State (Aug 29, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Jacksonville State · North Dakota State

Jacksonville State0-17

North Dakota State1-033Final

Sat, Aug 29 · Fargodome, Fargo, N.D. · Crowd 18,573CBS Sports Network

North Dakota State beat Jacksonville State 33-7.

We had North Dakota State favored. It won.

Next: Jacksonville State beat Eastern Kentucky 49-7, Sat Sep 5

Next: North Dakota State beat Fordham 38-0, Sat Sep 5

Top comment in the game thread

Best(so far) FBS debut?

Q3 6:41 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Aug 29

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Dakota State a 54% chance, and the closing betting line (North Dakota State was a 6.5-point favorite) put it at 70%.

Favored the whole way: North Dakota State never fell below 72%.

Jacksonville State never had better than a 28% chance.

Fumble return TD

North Dakota State · Q3 6:41

FinalNorth Dakota State 33-7 Jacksonville StateNorth Dakota State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 15:00NDSU scores first FBS touchdown on opening drive to lead Jacksonville State 7-0I've seen enough. North Dakota State winning the natty this yearr/CFB game thread
Q2 1:42Jacksonville State goes for it on fourth down and fails to convertThis dome is goatedr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:44NDSU fans erupt as Hayes throws a 44-yard touchdown pass to McCantsGod damn that was a throwr/CFB game thread
Q3 6:41NDSU scores on fumble recovery as fans celebrate FBS debutQuoted at the top of the page.Jesus. Can't even jump on the fumble properly. Fargodome got them shookr/CFB game thread

North Dakota State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (North Dakota State -6.5), at 74% for North Dakota State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a North Dakota State or Jacksonville State flair (87 and 51); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show North Dakota State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

North Dakota State scored on 6 of its 10 drives; Jacksonville State on 1 of its 11.

North Dakota State’s drives are teal, Jacksonville State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Too busy celebrating a sack they forgot they had to still keep playing 🤣”

A fan of another team

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

Box score

North Dakota State 33, Jacksonville State 7

North Dakota State covered −6.5 by 19.5. The total, 40, stayed under 46.5.

Team totals	Jacksonville State	North Dakota State
Total yards	170	373
Passing	12 of 23, 85 yds	15 of 23, 164 yds
Rushing	31 for 85 yds	44 for 209 yds
First downs	14	20
Third down	2 of 10	5 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 2	2 of 2
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	8 for 76 yds	13 for 94 yds
Time of possession	23:53	36:07

Jacksonville State leaders

Passing Caden Creel 12 of 23, 85 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Jalen Likely 11 for 48 yds; Caden Creel 15 for 44 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Deondre Johnson 2 for 26 yds; Jalen Likely 2 for 17 yds

North Dakota State leaders

Passing Nathan Hayes 14 of 22, 160 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Myles Mitchell 11 for 74 yds; Nyeoti Punni 8 for 60 yds
Receiving Jackson Williams 5 for 58 yds; Jordan McCants 1 for 44 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Jacksonville State · 9-5

Rated 66th in our preseason ratings.

W 17-13 vs Troy #112 of 667

won by 4 as a 3-point favorite

L 15-19 vs Kennesaw State #107 of 667

lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog

W 37-34 vs Western Kentucky #92 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 21-27 @ Florida International #105 of 667

lost by 6 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 35-26 vs Kennesaw State #126 of 667

won by 9 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 30-27 @ UTEP #158 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 24-21 @ Middle Tennessee #186 of 667

won by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 38-25 vs Delaware #121 of 667

won by 13 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 29-27 @ Sam Houston #184 of 667

won by 2 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 25-42 @ Southern Miss #96 of 667

lost by 17 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 45-10 vs Murray State #262 of 667

won by 35 as a 35.5-point favorite

L 34-41 @ Georgia Southern #101 of 667

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 34-24 vs Liberty #89 of 667

won by 10 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 10-17 @ UCF #55 of 667

lost by 7 as a 20.5-point underdog

Last three games · 2025 season

North Dakota State · 12-1

Rated 89th in our preseason ratings.

L 28-29 vs Illinois State #106 of 667

W 62-7 vs St. Thomas (MN) #152 of 667

won by 55 as a 33.5-point favorite

W 48-16 vs Northern Iowa #223 of 667

won by 32 as a 34-point favorite

W 15-10 @ North Dakota #87 of 667

won by 5 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 38-30 vs Youngstown State #144 of 667

won by 8 as a 26.5-point favorite

W 38-7 @ South Dakota State #94 of 667

won by 31 as a 9-point favorite

W 38-7 @ Indiana State #234 of 667

won by 31 as a 33.5-point favorite

W 45-17 vs Southern Illinois #130 of 667

won by 28 as a 20-point favorite

W 33-16 @ Illinois State #154 of 667

W 51-13 vs South Dakota #141 of 667

won by 38 as a 25.5-point favorite

W 41-14 vs Southeast Missouri State #188 of 667

won by 27 as a 31.5-point favorite

W 59-3 @ Tennessee State #206 of 667

won by 56 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 38-0 @ The Citadel #230 of 667

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Jacksonville State’s explosive plays against North Dakota State, 57 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Jacksonville State’s explosive plays against North Dakota State’s defense
Jacksonville State offense, 35th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 92nd
Jacksonville State’s EPA/play against North Dakota State’s defense
Jacksonville State offense, 61st percentile · North Dakota State defense, 97th
Jacksonville State’s rushing EPA against North Dakota State’s defense
Jacksonville State offense, 47th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 92nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Jacksonville StateNorth Dakota State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

North Dakota State leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2015 · North Dakota State won the last meeting

2015 · neutral siteNorth Dakota State 37-10

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

North Dakota State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (77th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

North Dakota State favored by 6.5 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

North Dakota State by 6.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3.5 points toward Jacksonville State.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

North Dakota State is worth +3.9 points (±6.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.

100% at home, 62% on the road against FBS opponents (8-0 home, 5-3 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.9 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,072 miles to get here.

North Dakota State beats Jacksonville State 33-7