The rest of the season
Every game left is at least 75%
Win out 65% · expect 3.6 of 4 more wins
Liberty's chance to win each game left, from our model: New Mexico State 78%, Middle Tennessee 97%, Western Kentucky 92%, Missouri State 94%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from <1% to 5%, peaking at 5% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 1st in the Conference USA · 4-0 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Deshawn Purdie 1,453 · Rushing Kam Davis 603 · Receiving Makai Jackson 626 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Liberty:athletics siteConference USAXYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #83 | #85 | +6✗ −1 | @James Madison | L 13-20 114 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Purdie 230 · Rush Davis 51 · Rec Jackson 73 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #87 | #204 | −28.5✗ −27.5 | Gardner-Webb | W 24-23 137 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Purdie 122 · Rush Jones 76 · Rec Jackson 69 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #96 | #157 | −14.5✓ +21.5 | Ball State | W 51-15 120 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Purdie 211 · Rush Kellman 51 · Rec Jackson 88 |
| 4 | Sep 24 | #99 | #156 | −2.5✓ +14.5 | @Coastal Carolina | W 34-17 129 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Purdie 216 · Rush Davis 166 · Rec Jackson 149 |
| 5 | Oct 2 | #83 | #61 | −7✓ +9 | @Delaware | W 30-14 132 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Purdie 157 · Rush Davis 147 · Rec Jackson 90 |
| 6 | Oct 8 | #72 | #138 | −13.5✓ +18.5 | Sam Houston | W 35-3 112 | 5-1 | 2-0 | Pass Purdie 114 · Rush Coleman 92 · Rec Jackson 46 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 22 | #54 | #141 | −8.5✓ +19.5 | @Kennesaw State | W 34-6 130 | 6-1 | 3-0 | Pass Purdie 176 · Rush Davis 59 · Rec Person 72 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #45 | #122 | −13.5✓ +25.5 | Florida International | W 49-10 112 | 7-1 | 4-0 | Pass Purdie 227 · Rush Udoh 31 · Rec Jackson 86 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #36 | #174 | −16.5 | @New Mexico State | 8 pm ET · ESPNU78% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #35 | #173 | Middle Tennessee | 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network97% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Western Kentucky | 1 pm ET92% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Missouri State | 2 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Liberty, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Liberty: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Florida International | W 49-10 | 391 | 1 | 29:14 | +0.440 | 64.4% | 1.04 | Best success rate |
| Oct 22 | @Kennesaw State | W 34-6 | 402 | 0 | 37:05 | +0.305 | 43.8% | 1.32 | Blowout win |
| Oct 8 | Sam Houston | W 35-3 | 411 | 0 | 30:56 | +0.453 | 60.0% | 1.08 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 2 | @Delaware | W 30-14 | 439 | 0 | 38:32 | +0.132 | 45.1% | 1.16 | |
| Sep 24 | @Coastal Carolina | W 34-17 | 485 | 2 | 32:41 | +0.251 | 56.1% | 0.73 | |
| Sep 19 | Ball State | W 51-15 | 460 | 1 | 31:59 | +0.503 | 53.1% | 1.43 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Gardner-Webb | W 24-23 | 379 | 2 | 29:08 | -0.213 | 38.8% | 1.27 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @James Madison | L 13-20 | 321 | 0 | 37:17 | +0.028 | 37.7% | 1.18 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 411 | 0.8 | +0.237 | 49.9% | 1.15 | ||||
Liberty's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last seven.
If you watch their games, they’re really a play here or there from being easily 5-2, maybe 6-1
5% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for Colorado State over Boise State
Sat 6 pm · Moves Liberty’s playoff chance by 3 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · Liberty · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
9 wins 4%; 10 wins 31%; 11 wins 65%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Liberty went undefeated into a Fiesta Bowl in 2023 — and two years later posted its first losing season in two decades, a young FBS program suddenly trying to climb back to a peak it only just reached.
Fans bristle at being dismissed as a young regional program that overachieved once and is now reverting — they remember the unbeaten regular season and the New Year's Six stage, and they refuse to…
Liberty · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Cool. Bring a jacket.
Liberty at New Mexico State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 8 pm ET · ESPNU · Aggie Memorial Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
This game is at Aggie Memorial Stadium. The kickoff times below are for Williams Stadium, Liberty's home stadium.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Liberty is the Conference USA program whose Hugh Freeze rebuild + 2023 13-1 + Fiesta Bowl appearance + Jamey Chadwell-era ascent answer what FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
79th percentile among FBS programs
2 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #24, Alex Taylor (Wyoming Tribune Eagle), to #24, Javon Edmonds (Syracuse Post-Standard). 68 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Liberty · 2026