Liberty beats Gardner-Webb 24-23

Team pages: Gardner-Webb · Liberty

Gardner-Webb0-323
Liberty1-124Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Williams Stadium (VA), Lynchburg, Va. · Crowd 15,708ESPN+

Liberty beat Gardner-Webb 24-23.

We had Liberty favored. It won.

Next: Gardner-Webb beat North Carolina Central 44-20, Sat Sep 19

Next: Liberty beat Ball State 51-15, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Henderson 54-yd TD pass to Copeland, Liberty goes ahead 24-23 (Q4, 2:34). Liberty went from 60% to 89% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Liberty a 91% chance, and the closing betting line (Liberty was a 28.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

A tight one: Liberty bottomed out at 36% and won.

Gardner-Webb never had better than a 64% chance.

Fumble return TDGardner-Webb · Q2 9:1117 unansweredGardner-Webb · Q2 5:44
FinalLiberty 24-23 Gardner-WebbLiberty wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q489% at halfLibertyHigh 99%Won24-2312−23+29ScoresFumble return TD17 unanswered
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q489% at halfLibertyHigh 99%Won24-23ScoresFumble return TD17 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q411% at halfLibertyLowest 1%Lost23-2412+23−29ScoresFumble return TD17 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q411% at halfLibertyLowest 1%Lost23-24ScoresFumble return TD17 unanswered

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 8:2632-yd puntLiberty 59% → 36% (−23)
  2. 2Q4 2:34Henderson 54-yd TD pass to Copeland, Liberty goes ahead 24-23Liberty 60% → 89% (+29)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 8:2632-yd puntGardner-Webb 41% → 64% (+23)
  2. 2Q4 2:34Henderson 54-yd TD pass to Copeland, Liberty goes ahead 24-23Gardner-Webb 40% → 11% (−29)
Liberty’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Liberty -28.5), at 96% for Liberty (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Liberty scored on 4 of its 15 drives; Gardner-Webb on 4 of its 13.

Liberty’s drives are teal, Gardner-Webb’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Gardner-Webb: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 24Field goalLiberty: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownGardner-Webb: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 70FumbleLiberty: Touchdown, from 20 yards out to 0TouchdownGardner-Webb: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 18Field goalLiberty: Punt, from 80 yards out to 44PuntGardner-Webb: Punt, from 80 yards out to 60PuntQ2Liberty: Punt, from 85 yards out to 80PuntGardner-Webb: Interception, from 64 yards out to 52InterceptionLiberty: Fumble Return returned for a touchdown, from 56 yards out to 65Fumble Return TDLiberty: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntGardner-Webb: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownLiberty: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 46DownsGardner-Webb: Punt, from 54 yards out to 44PuntLiberty: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 12Field goalQ3Liberty: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 44DownsGardner-Webb: Punt, from 56 yards out to 58PuntLiberty: Punt, from 80 yards out to 69PuntGardner-Webb: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 10Field goalLiberty: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntGardner-Webb: Punt, from 76 yards out to 62PuntQ4Liberty: Fumble, from 65 yards out to 50FumbleGardner-Webb: Interception, from 50 yards out to 49InterceptionLiberty: Punt, from 57 yards out to 36PuntGardner-Webb: Punt, from 96 yards out to 87PuntLiberty: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownGardner-Webb: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 45DownsLiberty: End of game, from 55 yards out to 64End of game

From Gardner-Webb’s side

Gardner-Webb’s best moment: 32-yd punt (Q4 8:26). It lifted Gardner-Webb’s win chance by 23 points.

Box score

Liberty 24, Gardner-Webb 23

Gardner-Webb covered +28.5 by 27.5. The total, 47, stayed under 55.5.

Gardner-WebbLibertyTotal yardsGardner-Webb 304Liberty 379304379Passing yardsGardner-Webb 186Liberty 186186186Rushing yardsGardner-Webb 118Liberty 193118193First downsGardner-Webb 23Liberty 182318TurnoversGardner-Webb 3Liberty 232Time of possessionGardner-Webb 30:52Liberty 29:0830:5229:08
Team totalsGardner-WebbLiberty
Total yards304379
Passing16 of 38, 186 yds8 of 21, 186 yds
Rushing33 for 118 yds45 for 193 yds
First downs2318
Third down5 of 142 of 12
Fourth down0 of 10 of 2
Turnovers32
Penalties5 for 27 yds11 for 96 yds
Time of possession30:5229:08

Gardner-Webb leaders

  • Passing Cole Pennington 16 of 38, 186 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Randy Young 4 for 75 yds, 1 TD; Christian Vann 17 for 46 yds
  • Receiving Kory Jones 3 for 51 yds; Giovanni Adopte 4 for 34 yds

Liberty leaders

  • Passing Deshawn Purdie 6 of 17, 122 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Peyton Jones 13 for 76 yds; Kam Davis 10 for 67 yds
  • Receiving Makai Jackson 2 for 69 yds, 1 TD; Darius Copeland 1 for 54 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

74° at kickoff · no rain on radar during play · wind 4 mph from the east-northeast, gusts to 10

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 50 other games played at Williams Stadium (VA) since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window).

September game-day temperatures at Williams Stadium (VA)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Liberty favoredGardner-Webb favored100%Win chanceLibertyRaininches per 10 min0.1 inWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Liberty favoredGardner-Webb favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 2:34 left3:19 p.m.
Gardner-Webb 23, Liberty 24 · Liberty 89% to win
no rain · wind 5 mph from the northeast · 76°
Henderson 54-yd TD pass to Copeland, Liberty goes ahead 24-23

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Lynchburg/p. Glenn airport, 2.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Gardner-Webb · 0-2

Rated 220th in our preseason ratings, 204th now, up 16 spots.

Two straight losses.

L 13-17 @ Wofford #194 of 668

lost by 4 as an 8.5-point underdog

Gardner-Webb lost 13-17 at Wofford. Chance to win started at 12%, low 4%, high 27%.

L 17-35 @ Austin Peay #105 of 668

lost by 18 as a 14.5-point underdog

Gardner-Webb lost 17-35 at Austin Peay. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 19%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Liberty · 4-8

Rated 83rd in our preseason ratings, 87th now.

Three straight losses.

L 42-48 vs Kennesaw State #109 of 667

lost by 6 as a 2.5-point underdog

Liberty lost 42-48 vs Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 54%, low under 1%, high 89%.

L 28-34 @ Louisiana Tech #114 of 667

lost by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite

Liberty lost 28-34 at Louisiana Tech. Chance to win started at 43%, low under 1%, high 98%.

L 27-34 @ Florida International #112 of 667

lost by 7 as a 4.5-point favorite

L 17-21 vs Missouri State #135 of 667

lost by 4 as a 7.5-point favorite

Liberty lost 17-21 vs Missouri State. Chance to win started at 78%, low 3%, high better than 99%.

W 59-30 vs Delaware #155 of 667

won by 29 as a 3.5-point favorite

Liberty won 59-30 vs Delaware. Chance to win started at 66%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

W 30-27 vs New Mexico State #165 of 667

won by 3 as an 11.5-point favorite

Liberty won 30-27 vs New Mexico State. Chance to win started at 83%, low 29%, high better than 99%.

W 19-8 @ UTEP #152 of 667

won by 11 as a 1.5-point favorite

Liberty won 19-8 at UTEP. Chance to win started at 45%, low 41%, high 99%.

L 7-21 @ Old Dominion #69 of 667

lost by 14 as a 14.5-point underdog

Liberty lost 7-21 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 22%.

L 13-31 vs James MadisonTop 25 #66 of 667

lost by 18 as a 7.5-point underdog

Liberty lost 13-31 vs James Madison. Chance to win started at 36%, low under 1%, high 56%.

L 13-23 @ Bowling Green #98 of 667

lost by 10 as a 6.5-point favorite

Liberty lost 13-23 at Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 64%, low under 1%, high 66%.

L 24-34 @ Jacksonville State #96 of 667

lost by 10 as a 6.5-point favorite

Liberty lost 24-34 at Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 58%, low under 1%, high 69%.

W 28-7 vs Maine #187 of 667

won by 21 as a 25.5-point favorite

Liberty won 28-7 vs Maine. Chance to win started at 96%, low 74%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Liberty

  • Wk 1Lat James Madison13-20

Gardner-Webb

Wk 1: L 17-35 at Austin Peay▼18Austin PeayWk 1: L 13-17 at Wofford▼4Wofford
  • Wk 1Lat Austin Peay17-35
  • Wk 1Lat Wofford13-17

The series

Liberty leads the series 10-4

14 meetings since 2003 · Liberty has won the last 3

Liberty wonGardner-Webb won2003: Gardner-Webb by 102004: Liberty by 82005: Gardner-Webb by 52006: Gardner-Webb by 32007: Liberty by 312008: Liberty by 202010: Liberty by 262011: Liberty by 322013: Liberty by 242014: Liberty by 342015: Gardner-Webb by 142016: Liberty by 32017: Liberty by 162022: Liberty by 120032022
  • 2022Liberty 21-20Liberty won 21-20 vs Gardner-Webb. Chance to win started at 96%, low 20%, high 97%.
  • 2017Liberty 33-17
  • 2016Liberty 23-20
  • 2015Gardner-Webb 34-20
  • 2014Liberty 34-0

Each line is Liberty’s chance to win through that meeting. Liberty is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Liberty’s chances here.

50-50Model 91% · Line 99%Gardner-WebbLiberty

Liberty favored by 28.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Liberty by 28.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Liberty.

opened −25.5now −28.5

Spread: −25.5 → −28.5

The books’ cut: 3.4%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm, with rain. Feels like 78° at kickoff.

Gardner-Webb at Liberty · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Williams Stadium, Lynchburg

  • 78°feels like at kickoff
  • 0.01 inrain at kickoff
  • 96weather score, Comfortable
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Williams Stadium that day, a 3:30 pm kickoff would have scored 82, against 96 at noon.

  • noon: 96, Comfortable (this game)
  • 1 pm: 94, Comfortable
  • 2 pm: 87, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 82, Mixed
  • 6 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 88, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Liberty is worth +4.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 59th percentile.

76% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (32-10 home, 24-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 201 miles to get here.

Where next