The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Kennesaw State 49%, Jacksonville State 52%
Win out 16% · expect 2.6 of 4 more wins
Delaware's chance to win each game left, from our model: Kennesaw State 49%, Florida International 78%, New Mexico State 81%, Jacksonville State 52%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 10% to 2%, peaking at 12% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 3rd in the Conference USA · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Nick Minicucci 1,477 · Rushing Jo'Nathan Silver 380 · Receiving Sean Wilson 591 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Delaware:athletics siteConference USAX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #41 | #210 | −31.5✓ +3.5 | Merrimack | W 42-7 73 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Minicucci 330 · Rush Powell 35 · Rec Roberts 80 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #43 | #44 | +20.5✓ +11.5 | @Vanderbilt | L 26-35 137 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Minicucci 182 · Rush Silver 109 · Rec Lofton 142 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #41 | #186 | −4.5✓ +3.5 | Coastal Carolina | W 22-14 124 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Minicucci 302 · Rush Ellison Jr. 30 · Rec Wilson 185 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #47 | #50 | +19.5✗ −19.5 | @Virginia | L 3-42 142 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Trujillo 38 · Rush Silver 49 · Rec Robinson 38 |
| 5 | Oct 2 | #61 | #83 | +7✗ −9 | Liberty | L 14-30 132 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Archield Jr. 137 · Rush Bell 32 · Rec Graves 69 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 13 | #95 | #165 | −1.5✗ −4.5 | @Middle Tennessee | L 30-33 125 | 2-4 | 0-2 | Pass Bell 306 · Rush Ellison Jr. 19 · Rec Lewis 83 |
| 8 | Oct 20 | #107 | #136 | −3✓ +20 | Missouri State | W 61-38 133 | 3-4 | 1-2 | Pass Minicucci 225 · Rush Silver 101 · Rec Wilson 69 |
| 9 | Oct 27 | #93 | #80 | +2.5✓ +16.5 | @Western Kentucky | W 35-21 143 | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Minicucci 414 · Rush Silver 49 · Rec Wilson 183 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #74 | #145 | −1.5 | @Kennesaw State | 3 pm ET49% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #73 | #143 | Florida International | 3 pm ET78% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @New Mexico State | 3 pm ET81% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Jacksonville State | 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Delaware, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Delaware: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | @Western Kentucky | W 35-21 | 495 | 1 | 30:32 | +0.296 | 49.3% | 1.24 | |
| Oct 20 | Missouri State | W 61-38 | 482 | 1 | 34:43 | +0.485 | 54.1% | 1.35 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 13 | @Middle Tennessee | L 30-33 | 391 | 1 | 32:15 | +0.245 | 41.8% | 1.35 | One-score loss |
| Oct 2 | Liberty | L 14-30 | 359 | 2 | 21:28 | -0.164 | 33.3% | 1.25 | |
| Sep 26 | @Virginia | L 3-42 | 160 | 2 | 23:49 | -0.217 | 28.1% | 0.91 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Coastal Carolina | W 22-14 | 395 | 0 | 32:08 | +0.156 | 46.9% | 1.12 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | @Vanderbilt | L 26-35 | 338 | 2 | 31:20 | -0.180 | 31.9% | 1.43 | |
| Sep 3 | Merrimack | W 42-7 | 547 | 1 | 27:18 | +0.396 | 47.2% | 1.46 | Most explosive |
| Season average (8 games) | 396 | 1.2 | +0.127 | 41.6% | 1.26 | ||||
Delaware's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last two.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Ryan Carty's 7-6 record and Delaware's #134 talent rank highlight a program struggling to match its historic legacy in its second FBS season.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Delaware · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 1%; 5 wins 10%; 6 wins 33%; 7 wins 40%; 8 wins 16%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Delaware won six national titles and produced an NFL MVP and a Super Bowl MVP at quarterback -- then arrived in the FBS in 2025 and won a bowl game it wasn't even supposed to be eligible to play in.
Delaware arrived in the FBS with more championship history than most of the programs it now plays, and outsiders still talk about FCS-to-FBS jumps as programs proving themselves from scratch. The 68…
Delaware won six national titles across its history, perfected the Wing-T offense under Tubby Raymond, produced NFL MVP Rich Gannon and Super Bowl XLVII MVP Joe Flacco -- and in its first-ever FBS season, 2025, won the 68 Ventures Bowl 20-13 over Louisiana, becoming only the second program ever (after Jacksonville State) to win a bowl game in its FBS debut year.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Delaware · 2026