The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Delaware 48%, Western Kentucky 66%
Win out 21% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins
Jacksonville State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Sam Houston 78%, Western Kentucky 66%, Missouri State 84%, Delaware 48%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 19% to 34%, peaking at 34% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 1st in the Conference USA · 4-0 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Caden Creel 1,746 · Rushing Caden Creel 711 · Receiving Deondre Johnson 438 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #66 | #89 | +6.5✗ −19.5 | @North Dakota State | L 7-33 121 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Creel 85 · Rush Likely 48 · Rec Johnson 26 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #66 | #154 | −22.5✓ +19.5 | Eastern Kentucky | W 49-7 118 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Creel 327 · Rush Likely 73 · Rec Williams 144 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #69 | #48 | +1.5✗ −0.5 | @Ohio | L 27-29 138 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Creel 265 · Rush Creel 120 · Rec Gilbert 82 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #63 | #85 | −3.5✓ +0.5 | Georgia Southern | W 31-27 121 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Creel 194 · Rush Farrington 44 · Rec Johnson 61 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #62 | #124 | −7✓ +3 | Middle Tennessee | W 23-13 124 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Creel 241 · Rush Creel 119 · Rec Johnson 57 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 7 | #71 | #157 | −3✗ −2 | @Kennesaw State | W 27-26 139 Firestorm | 4-2 | 2-0 | Pass Creel 311 · Rush Likely 40 · Rec Johnson 112 |
| 7 | Oct 13 | #72 | #116 | −3= | Florida International | W 27-24 127 | 5-2 | 3-0 | Pass Creel 214 · Rush Creel 95 · Rec Johnson 93 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 28 | #83 | #147 | −3✓ +21 | @New Mexico State | W 24-0 116 | 6-2 | 4-0 | Pass Creel 109 · Rush Creel 211 · Rec Gilbert 67 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #72 | #197 | −16.5 | Sam Houston | 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network78% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #71 | #99 | @Western Kentucky | 3:30 pm ET66% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Missouri State | 2 pm ET84% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Delaware | 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Jacksonville State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Jacksonville State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | @New Mexico State | W 24-0 | 433 | 2 | 35:18 | +0.198 | 50.8% | 1.31 | |
| Oct 13 | Florida International | W 27-24 | 387 | 1 | 26:16 | +0.183 | 44.6% | 1.38 | One-score win |
| Oct 7 | @Kennesaw State | W 27-26 | 385 | 2 | 29:02 | +0.104 | 44.0% | 1.06 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | Middle Tennessee | W 23-13 | 517 | 2 | 32:38 | +0.183 | 55.9% | 1.04 | |
| Sep 19 | Georgia Southern | W 31-27 | 302 | 1 | 23:37 | +0.368 | 41.2% | 1.36 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | @Ohio | L 27-29 | 447 | 1 | 28:25 | +0.269 | 47.9% | 1.12 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Eastern Kentucky | W 49-7 | 526 | 1 | 26:33 | +0.547 | 60.3% | 1.41 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @North Dakota State | L 7-33 | 170 | 2 | 23:53 | -0.324 | 30.9% | 0.98 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 396 | 1.5 | +0.191 | 46.9% | 1.21 | ||||
Jacksonville State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
W 27-24 vs Florida International
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last five.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Charles Kelly's 9-5 season raises questions about sustaining momentum as Jacksonville State's #93 talent rank and uneasy fanbase watch the CUSA championship odds climb.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Jacksonville State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 7%; 8 wins 28%; 9 wins 43%; 10 wins 21%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Jacksonville State jumped to the FBS in 2023 and just won nine games for the third year running — a little Alabama school playing with house money and refusing to act overwhelmed by any of it.
Fans hear the program dismissed as an FCS refugee that wandered up a level — never mind two CUSA title-game trips and three straight nine-win seasons. They've stopped waiting for the respect and…
Jacksonville State is the Conference USA newcomer whose 2023 FBS reclassification + Rich Rodriguez 2024 9-4 + 2025 New Mexico Bowl championship make them the most-recent multi-tier ascent + bowl-winning team in CFB.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Jacksonville State · 2026