deep threatthis cycle✓ factnew
Deondre Johnson is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
our readdeveloping
Jacksonville State
1-2Latest
Conference USA · Charles Kelly, year 2 (10-7) · AmFirst Stadium · 24,000 · 19,677 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#63 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #91 (-7.0) · FPI #106
The marketJacksonville State by 3vs Georgia Southern · our model 68% Jacksonville State · a number, not a pick
LastL 27–29 at Ohio · Sat Sep 12 · Caden Creel 265 pass yds, 1 TD, 120 rush yds
Nextvs Georgia Southern · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville State by 3 · series 0-1 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Jacksonville State · 2026 schedule & results1-2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #66 | #89 | +6.5✗ | @North Dakota State | L 7–33 121 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #66 | #154 | -22✓ | Eastern Kentucky | W 49–7 118 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #70 | #47 | +1.5✗ | @Ohio | L 27–29 138 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #62 | #84 | -3 | Georgia Southern | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #63 | #128 | Middle Tennessee | ||||
| 6 | Oct 7 | @Kennesaw State | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 14 | Florida International | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 29 | @New Mexico State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 8 | Sam Houston | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Western Kentucky | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Missouri State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Delaware |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @Ohio | L 27–29 | 447 | 1 | 28:25 | +0.253 | 46.6% | 123.4% | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Eastern Kentucky | W 49–7 | 526 | 1 | 26:33 | +0.547 | 60.3% | 140.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @North Dakota State | L 7–33 | 170 | 2 | 23:53 | -0.324 | 30.9% | 98.2% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 381 | 1.3 | +0.159 | 45.9% | 120.8% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Jacksonville State jumped to the FBS in 2023 and just won nine games for the third year running — a little Alabama school playing with house money and refusing to act overwhelmed by any of it.
Title DroughtSince 2023 · 3 yrs
Fans hear the program dismissed as an FCS refugee that wandered up a level — never mind two CUSA title-game trips and three straight nine-win seasons. They've stopped waiting for the respect and start…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Jacksonville State fans
Jacksonville State fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 9-5 · last season
Game feel53even gamescombined pts / game6th highest-scoring of 12 in the Conference USA
Heart rate5-4white-knucklein one-score games (9 of 14)1st most one-score games of 12 in the Conference USA
Margin+2.9comfortableavg scoring margin3rd best margin of 12 in the Conference USA
Tempo70uptempooffensive plays / game2nd fastest of 12 in the Conference USA
Big plays1.27some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)7th most explosive of 12 in the Conference USA
Home crowd19,684avg attendance2nd biggest crowds of 11 in the Conference USA
✓ measured from 14 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Jacksonville State has won two of its last five.
Cooling. 6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Georgia Southern · at home
SolidEliteBend-don't-break
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#102 in field+100000
C-USA title#3 in market+525
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Jacksonville State · the story right now
4 storylines developing
What Jacksonville State's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Caleb Coombs is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
coaching2025 cycle~readnew
Charles Kelly replaces Rich Rodriguez’s 17-8 run with 84% production returning — the first test for Jacksonville State’s bowl-winning ascension in Conference USA.
what happenedCharles Kelly took over as Jacksonville State's head coach, replacing Rich Rodriguez. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 2-year head coach Rich Rodriguez (18-9)
our readfront page
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Jacksonville State dropped 19 spots in SP+ — the 9-5 record and top-quintile returning production contrast with the 2025 SP+ slide, raising questions about sustainability under Charles Kelly’s first season.
what happenedJacksonville State enters 2026 rated No. 92 in 2025 SP+ (-6.7), down 19 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredJacksonville State's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downJacksonville State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
ReplacedJacksonville State's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Outcome band · Jacksonville State · 2026
Outcome band · Jacksonville State · 2026Jacksonville State's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.
Floor 5-7Ceiling 10-3Base 8-5
0 wins13 wins
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Jacksonville State · Coaching Confidence
The Charles Kelly story at Jacksonville State won't sit still.
Charles Kelly took over as Jacksonville State's head coach, replacing Rich Rodriguez. It is replaces 2-year head coach Rich Rodriguez (18-9). It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The coverage is thin so far; the story is still writing itself.
Developing3 new this week
last weekJacksonville State coach Charles Kelly turns 59 as Gamecocks prep for Ohio matchup — WBMA
last weekHappy birthday, Charles Kelly — now, get back to work — The Anniston Star
last weekJax State’s Kelly Confirms Season-Ending Injury as Gamecocks Turn Attention to Ohio — Calhoun Journal
3 weeks agoJacksonville State releases first depth chart — Reported
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Charles Kelly Head coach
“Jacksonville State coach Charles Kelly turns 59 as Gamecocks prep for Ohio matchup” — WBMA · 2026-09-08
Rich Rodriguez Out
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Charles Kelly replaces Rich Rodriguez’s 17-8 run with 84% production returning — the first test for Jacksonville State’s bowl-winning ascension in Conference USA.
Next · what to watch
The obvious story is the marquee name; the non-obvious one is roster churn — a coaching change keeps a portal and decommit window open long after the introductory presser. Watch decommitments and portal moves in the next window — that's where this is actually won or lost, not at the podium.
Source of record: Charles Kelly took over as Jacksonville State's head coach, replacing Rich Rodriguez — replaces 2-year head coach Rich Rodriguez (18-9).
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.›
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
“Jacksonville State coach Charles Kelly turns 59 as Gamecocks prep for Ohio matchup”
WBMA · 2026-09-08 · read ↗
“Happy birthday, Charles Kelly — now, get back to work”
The Anniston Star · 2026-09-08 · read ↗
“Jax State’s Kelly Confirms Season-Ending Injury as Gamecocks Turn Attention to Ohio”
Calhoun Journal · 2026-09-08 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards9 board mentions — too thin to call a stance. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (78%).›
Only 9 of 353 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"It doesn’t matter, this is a yearly occurrence and continues to happen. And it’s just getting worse under Kelly now. It feels like the Grass years all over again. We can be a g6 pl"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Absolutely, we should’ve hired Petrino despite the bad interview. This is the one fuckup Greg has made as AD. He really needs to nail the next hire, because Kelly has got to go aft"
r/CFB ~ fan take
Board health this week (173 posts): 15% positive · 45% neutral · 40% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
🔗The dominoes6 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.›
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
“Florida lands commitment from Jacksonville State RHP Maddox McDougall”
On3 · 2026-07-15 · read ↗
“Jacksonville State Transfer Cook Expected to Boost Mountaineer Ground Game”
West Virginia University Athletics · 2026-07-10 · read ↗
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Jacksonville State is the Conference USA newcomer whose 2023 FBS reclassification + Rich Rodriguez 2024 9-4 + 2025 New Mexico Bowl championship make them the most-recent multi-tier ascent + bowl-winning team in CFB.
Offense: SolidDefense: EliteDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Open questions
The story
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025Hired Charles Kelly
Roster
Roster Reload - Jacksonville State
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production50%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#93 nationally247 composite 602.8
Portal Additions21Primary repair: IOL
Portal Losses14Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#86Depth class
WRin 3 - Ronnel Johnsonout 0Need Filled
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down
Full roster (132 players)
CBJQ Brooks, Jaheim Jenkins, Javan Allison, Jonavan Carr, Keiyon Turner, Malik Henderson, Micah McCarroll, RJ Rainer, Rodarion Jones, Temarion Foster, Tim Anthony, Tre'Quon Fegans
DLAndrew Rumph, Christopher Johnson, Jackson Bunn, Jawaun Campbell, Jermaine Waters Jr., Khurtiss Perry, Kyten Davis, Marquis Hood, Marvin Stringfellow, McCade Wright, Nii Addy, Quay Hood, Tae Floyd
LBAidan Thompson, Angel Toombs, Austin Bouck, Brayden Matthews, Cai Mayowa, Devin Pettway, Ian Mitchell, Jacob Cruz, Jameson McCollough, Mac Sanders, Mario Alloway, Mikey Rosa, Morven Joseph, Myles Butler, Peyton Consaul, Shaynadd Whitfield, Tristan Lyles, Walker O'Steen, Walter Reddick
OLAmarii Atchison, Bo Burkes, Britin Witt, Caleb Holmes, Daylan Martin, Hadine Diaby, J.R. Jernigan, JT Howell, Jeremiah Orr, Kendarius Blair, Lance Johnson, Lucas Mrachkovskiy, Markevian Blake, Max Shiver, Nate Smith, Oliver Maldonado, Ryan Walker, Ryland Bragg, Shaun Martin, Storm Fain, Vern Faulk, Will Cooper, William Hathcock
RBAndrew Paul, Jacob Cornejo, Jalen Likely, Jamarious Acklin, Justus Savage, Khristian Lando, Landon Watkins, Lucas Farrington, Maurice Winston
SAvion Willis, Brennan Core, Brice McKenzie, Caleb Nix, Jay Stone, Kaden Cook, Keith Christein, Marc Woods, Riggs Dunn, Robert Billings, Shondell Harris, Ty Sims
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Jacksonville State
1 verified update · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Jacksonville State releases first depth chart
Kelly's staff dropped the first depth chart of 2026 and the DL battle is the one to watch — coordinator change plus a class ranked 86th nationally means those depth spots are genuinely open, not ceremonial.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
+10.3 net portal points
(raw ledger: +14.1 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB+10.5
need filled
WR+10.4
need filled
IOL+8.8
need filled
DL-6.0
RB-3.7
low confidence
S-3.5
LB-3.3
low confidence
EDGE+1.0
low confidence
LS-1.0
low confidence
OT+0.9
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Tristan Lyles
#1308 national
★★★☆☆
Brayden Matthews
#1336 national
Profiles like a typical incoming linebacker — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Noah Lee
#1523 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
30
AL · 13FL · 10GA · 5MD · 1OH · 1
AL leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
90 signees across 10 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Jacksonville State player grew up 171 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
14th-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%74–306 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi37%46 of 123 players
Farthest1,496 miKeiyon Turner · Mesa, AZ
Closest1 miNate Smith · Jacksonville, AL
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to AmFirst Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 123 of 132 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Jacksonville State Defeats WKU 37-34
[Postgame Thread] FIU Defeats Jacksonville State 27-21
[Postgame Thread] Jacksonville State Defeats Murray State 45-10
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
13th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(62nd among FBS)
(62nd among FBS)
Market 49pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
Recovering 71% of their own fumbles — running hot vs. the ~54% league rate.
5 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Takeaway conversion
Converting 30% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~18% league rate.
3 interceptions of 10 disrupted passes (7 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
Winning the penalty battle: 18 penalties committed vs. 27 drawn on opponents, a 49-yard edge.
165 penalty yards committed vs. 214 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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