Jacksonville State

1-2

Conference USA · Charles Kelly, year 2 (10-7) · AmFirst Stadium · 24,000 · 19,677 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#63 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #91 (-7.0) · FPI #106
The marketJacksonville State by 3vs Georgia Southern · our model 68% Jacksonville State · a number, not a pick

LastL 27–29 at Ohio · Sat Sep 12 · Caden Creel 265 pass yds, 1 TD, 120 rush yds

Nextvs Georgia Southern · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville State by 3 · series 0-1 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
27.7
Pts allowed/game
23.0
Total yards/gm#10 / 138 · 93rd pct
381.0
Rush yards/gmT-#41 / 138 · 70th pct
140.0
Pass yards/gm#9 / 138 · 94th pct
241.0
Yards allowed/gm#124 / 138 · 11th pct
306.7
Rush yds allowed/gm#136 / 138 · 2nd pct
189.7
SacksT-#38 / 138 · 65th pct
5
InterceptionsT-#17 / 115 · 81st pct
3
3rd-down convT-#16 / 138 · 88th pct
55.6%
All 91 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1143381.0/gm6.11/play#10 / 138 · 93rd pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
920306.7/gm4.84/play#124 / 138 · 11th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
420140.0/gm2.25/playT-#41 / 138 · 70th pctT-#23 / 70 · 67th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
569189.7/gm2.99/play#136 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
10836.0/gmT-#7 / 138 · 95th pct#3 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
12842.7/gm#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
41.3/gmT-#51 / 138 · 54th pctT-#34 / 70 · 44th pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
20.7/gmT-#53 / 138 · 50th pctT-#34 / 70 · 36th pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
723241.0/gm3.87/play#9 / 138 · 94th pct#4 / 70 · 95th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
351117.0/gm1.85/play#49 / 138 · 65th pct#35 / 70 · 51st pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
7926.3/gm#21 / 138 · 85th pct#9 / 70 · 88th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
6220.7/gmT-#79 / 138 · 41st pctT-#42 / 70 · 39th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
5518.3/gmT-#16 / 138 · 88th pctT-#7 / 70 · 90th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
4013.3/gmT-#90 / 138 · 34th pctT-#51 / 70 · 26th pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
62.0/gmT-#17 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#14 / 70 · 74th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
31.0/gmT-#75 / 138 · 36th pctT-#47 / 70 · 23rd pctT-#6 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
164.0164.0#30 / 115 · 74th pct#23 / 60 · 62nd pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Opp
121.6121.6#41 / 91 · 55th pct#26 / 42 · 39th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
20.7/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#8 / 70 · 77th pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
31.0/gmT-#110 / 138 · 16th pctT-#60 / 70 · 11th pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
51.7/gmT-#38 / 138 · 65th pctT-#21 / 70 · 60th pctT-#3 / 10 · 70th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
41.3/gmT-#74 / 138 · 37th pctT-#42 / 70 · 31st pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
144.7/gmT-#29 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 70 · 68th pctT-#2 / 10 · 70th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
134.3/gmT-#109 / 138 · 18th pctT-#63 / 70 · 9th pctT-#7 / 10 · 30th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
6220.7/gm#6 / 138 · 96th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
5317.7/gmT-#130 / 138 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
206.7/gmT-#4 / 138 · 97th pctT-#2 / 70 · 97th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
175.7/gm#129 / 138 · 7th pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
3612.0/gmT-#10 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 70 · 98th pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
4214.0/gmT-#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
31.0/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#12 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
41.3/gmT-#121 / 138 · 9th pctT-#63 / 70 · 7th pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
51.7/gmT-#27 / 138 · 74th pctT-#13 / 70 · 74th pctT-#2 / 10 · 70th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
51.7/gmT-#98 / 138 · 25th pctT-#54 / 70 · 20th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
78:5126:17/gm#9 / 138 · 94th pct#2 / 70 · 98th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#4 / 4 · 25th pct
Opp
101:0933:43/gm#137 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 4 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.37 EPA/play12351 / 7568677
#8 FBS
9.06
#14 FBS
2164.96446.38.85.1
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Possession Receiver · +0.97 EPA/play17314188
#32 FBS
13.44
#5 FBS
55
+1.02 EPA/play113810813.5025
+0.74 EPA/play937699.9018
-0.21 EPA/play335397.8019

2026 stat leaders · Jacksonville State

through 3 games

Caleb Nix leads Jacksonville State with 18 tackles through 3 games.

1. Caleb Nix S 18 tackles
2. Caden Creel QB 677 passing yards
3. Walker O'Steen LB 16 tackles
4. Jamill Williams WR 188 receiving yards
5. JQ Brooks CB 15 tackles
How They Play · 2026

Jacksonville State fields a capable offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
45th pct EPA/play
Defense
85th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
75th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Jacksonville State · 2026

Jacksonville State reads strongest in red-zone finish (top 5%) and passing epa allowed (top 5%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Jacksonville State sits at the 15th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.16
45th
Success Rate +0.46
85th
Explosive Plays +1.21
45th
Rushing EPA -0.03
15th
Red-Zone Finish +49.47
95th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.04
85th
Success Rate Allowed +0.40
65th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.09
75th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.03
95th
Red-Zone Defense +3.65
35th

hidden math · special situations

Field Position (O) +35.10
95th
Passing EPA +0.51
75th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.07
55th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 3 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 10 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Jacksonville State · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Jacksonville State is worth +8.3 points more at home than on the road.

Top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile of 133 programs

83% at home, 38% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (15–3 home, 10–16 away). Interval ±5.5.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Jacksonville State has beaten the number by +4.4 more at home than away over 47 games — inside the ±8.7 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

AmFirst Stadium seats 24,000 and has averaged 80% full (19,145, 20 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 270 miles trip since 2018, the 22nd-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 37% of the 2026 roster (46 of 123 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 43 home games since 2018.

Home15–3Away10–16Edge+8.3 ±5.5Visitor trip270 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Jacksonville State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 61st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 41st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 61st pctileCompetitive snaps only · 41st pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Jacksonville State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

65th percentile success on standard downs, 82nd on passing downs — a 17-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantJacksonville StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th

Halftime identity

Jacksonville State by half

1st-half offense ranks 67th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 48th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 67th pctile2nd half · 48th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Jacksonville State’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: Brian Williams (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 30% → 2026: 48% · 18-pt range · #29 of 203 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 29% → 2026: 20% · 9-pt range · #152 of 200 · less than most
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Jacksonville State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.9% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 67-play sample) — mid-pack, 29 of 41 qualifying offenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=67 short-zone plays, raw rate 71.6%
Havoc & trenchesDisruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc & trenches

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc Rate (D) 0.145
35th
Havoc Allowed (O) 0.154
55th
Front-Seven Havoc (D) 0.093
45th
Secondary Havoc (D) 0.052
25th
Stuff Rate (D) 0.177
55th
Stuff Rate Allowed (O) 0.192
35th
Line Yards (O) 2.829
15th
Line Yards Allowed (D) 2.915
45th
Standard-Downs Success (O) 0.498
75th
Standard-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.463
65th
Passing-Downs Success (O) 0.380
85th
Passing-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.235
75th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Jacksonville State

CFB Zeitgeist

#63

+1.0

SP+

#91

-7.0

FPI

#106

-9.0

Elo

#81

1426

The national models put Jacksonville State between 81st and 106th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 63rd.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Jacksonville State

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

72°F average kickoff temp; 13% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.

Based on 31 home games with weather data.

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