The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: UAB 26%
Win out <1% · expect 0.8 of 4 more wins
Charlotte's chance to win each game left, from our model: UAB 26%, East Carolina 21%, Tulsa 14%, Navy 18%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 10th in the American Athletic · 1-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Conner Harrell 831 · Rushing Henry Rutledge 452 · Receiving Jaden Barnes 475 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Charlotte:athletics siteAmerican Athletic
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #166 | #203 | −20.5✗ −22.5 | The Citadel | L 41-43 137 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Gonzales 322 · Rush Alexander 138 · Rec Hampton 117 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #179 | #11 | +44.5✓ +12.5 | @Ole Miss | L 9-41 119 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Gonzales 128 · Rush Williams 74 · Rec Eley 56 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #162 | #87 | +16.5✓ +11.5 | @App State | L 21-26 136 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Gonzales 211 · Rush Rutledge 29 · Rec Barnes 97 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #163 | #34 | +9.5✗ −17.5 | Louisiana | L 7-34 123 | 0-4 | 0-0 | Pass Gonzales 68 · Rush Rutledge 14 · Rec Barnes 45 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #168 | #96 | +18.5✗ −32.5 | Memphis | L 8-59 129 | 0-5 | 0-1 | Pass Gonzales 73 · Rush Rutledge 111 · Rec Eley 36 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #204 | #76 | +27.5✗ −12.5 | @North Texas | L 10-50 126 | 0-6 | 0-2 | Pass Harrell 218 · Rush Rutledge 38 · Rec Barnes 94 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #226 | #97 | +17.5✓ +24.5 | @Temple | W 38-31 130 | 1-6 | 1-2 | Pass Harrell 281 · Rush Rutledge 123 · Rec Eley 96 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 30 | #190 | #82 | +8.5✓ +1.5 | Tulane | L 31-38 149 Firestorm | 1-7 | 1-3 | Pass Harrell 239 · Rush Rutledge 121 · Rec Rutledge 79 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #193 | #82 | +8.5 | @UAB | 3:30 pm ET26% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #195 | #86 | East Carolina | time TBA21% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Tulsa | time TBA14% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Navy | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Charlotte, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Charlotte: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | Tulane | L 31-38 | 455 | 0 | 33:47 | +0.210 | 40.5% | 1.44 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @Temple | W 38-31 | 449 | 1 | 32:49 | +0.245 | 47.2% | 1.34 | Best success rate |
| Oct 10 | @North Texas | L 10-50 | 274 | 2 | 29:46 | -0.241 | 27.1% | 1.42 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | Memphis | L 8-59 | 209 | 4 | 19:35 | -0.040 | 28.9% | 1.52 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | Louisiana | L 7-34 | 137 | 4 | 19:07 | -0.621 | 26.7% | -0.13 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @App State | L 21-26 | 247 | 2 | 26:32 | -0.177 | 30.5% | 1.06 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | @Ole Miss | L 9-41 | 322 | 1 | 37:14 | -0.021 | 36.1% | 1.00 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 5 | The Citadel | L 41-43 | 538 | 2 | 30:15 | +0.286 | 46.2% | 1.49 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 329 | 2.0 | -0.045 | 35.4% | 1.15 | ||||
Charlotte's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Charlotte · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 41%; 2 wins 41%; 3 wins 15%; 4 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-7
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
Charlotte is the youngest program in the Power footprint — football didn't exist here until 2013 — trying to build, almost from scratch, a tradition the rest of the sport had a century-long head start on.
Niner fans say the rest of the sport treats a program this young like it doesn't count — and they point to the biggest, fastest-growing city in the Carolinas and ask why a metro this size shouldn't…
Charlotte · Game-day weather
Typical at Jerry Richardson Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 89
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 113 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 111 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Charlotte is the American Athletic program whose 2013 program founding + 2019 first bowl appearance + Jerry Richardson Stadium define what most-recent-FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
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Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Charlotte · 2026