App State beats Charlotte 26-21
App State beat Charlotte 26-21. Share this game
We had App State favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave App State an 85% chance, and the closing betting line (App State was a 16.5-point favorite) put it at 91%.
Favored the whole way: App State never fell below 83%.
Charlotte never had better than a 16% chance.
Charlotte · Q4 1:58
App State 26-21 CharlotteApp State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Charlotte 21-26 App StateCharlotte lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (App State -16.5), at 91% for App State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
App State scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Charlotte on 2 of its 11.
App State’s drives are teal, Charlotte’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“Oh this is going to be a sickos game lol”
How fans reacted
What it cost
App State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 2% to 0%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
App State 26, Charlotte 21
Charlotte covered +16.5 by 11.5. The total, 47, stayed under 52.5.
| Team totals | Charlotte | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 247 | 435 |
| Passing | 22 of 35, 211 yds | 29 of 43, 345 yds |
| Rushing | 25 for 36 yds | 33 for 90 yds |
| First downs | 15 | 22 |
| Third down | 1 of 10 | 7 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 9 for 54 yds | 10 for 98 yds |
| Time of possession | 26:32 | 33:28 |
Charlotte leaders
- Passing Cole Gonzales 22 of 35, 211 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Henry Rutledge 7 for 29 yds; Khamani Alexander 13 for 18 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Jaden Barnes 10 for 97 yds; Jaylen Hampton 4 for 50 yds
App State leaders
- Passing Malachi Singleton 28 of 42, 331 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Jaquari Lewis 11 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Treyaun Webb 8 for 24 yds
- Receiving Chris Lofton 6 for 90 yds, 1 TD; Sam Pickett III 6 for 67 yds
Kickoff came 3 hours 32 minutes late
64° at kickoff · 0.04 in of rain by radar over the stadium; another 0.9 in fell before the late kickoff
No thunder was reported at Watauga_cnty_hosp_helip airport (2.1 miles away) around the delay.
September game-day temperatures at Kidd Brewer Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Watauga_cnty_hosp_helip airport, 2.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is Charlotte-App State — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last two games
Charlotte · 0-2
Rated 166th in our preseason ratings, 162nd now.
Two straight losses.
L 41-43 vs The Citadel #210 of 668
lost by 2 as a 20.5-point favorite
Last two games
App State · 2-0
Rated 98th in our preseason ratings, 87th now, up 11 spots.
Two straight wins, capped by a 3-point win over East Carolina as a 6.5-point underdog.
Week by week
App State
- Wk 1Wvs Maine55-3
- Wk 2Wat East Carolina27-24
Charlotte
- Wk 1Lvs The Citadel41-43
- Wk 2Lat Ole Miss9-41
Power rating by week
App State is rated 5.4 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Charlotte’s explosive plays against App State, 76 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Charlotte’s explosive plays against App State’s defense
Charlotte offense, 8th percentile · App State defense, 84th
Charlotte’s EPA/play against App State’s defense
Charlotte offense, 3rd percentile · App State defense, 55th
App State’s passing EPA against Charlotte’s defense
App State offense, 66th percentile · Charlotte defense, 11th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
App State leads the series 4-0
4 meetings since 2018 · App State has won the last 4
- 2025 · neutral siteApp State 34-11
- 2020App State 35-20
- 2019App State 56-41
- 2018App State 45-9
Each line is App State’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
App State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (97th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
App State favored by 16.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
App State by 16.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Charlotte.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −19.5 → −16.5 · Total: 53.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild, with rain. Feels like 68° at kickoff.
Charlotte at App State · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone
- 68°feels like at kickoff
- 0.43 inrain at kickoff
- 78weather score, Mixed
- Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Earlier kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Kidd Brewer Stadium that day, a noon kickoff would have scored 99, against 78 at 6 pm.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- noon: 99, Comfortable
- 1 pm: 96, Comfortable
- 2 pm: 83, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 76, Mixed
- 4 pm: 76, Mixed
- 6 pm: 78, Mixed (this game)
- 7:30 pm: 83, Mixed
- 7:45 pm: 84, Mixed
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
App State is worth +4.9 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 64th percentile.
77% at home, 49% on the road against FBS opponents (33-10 home, 24-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 82 miles to get here.