The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Army 32%, South Florida 41%, Florida Atlantic 65%
Win out 7% · expect 2.2 of 4 more wins
East Carolina's chance to win each game left, from our model: South Florida 41%, Charlotte 79%, Army 32%, Florida Atlantic 65%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 87% to 77%, peaking at 87% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the American Athletic · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Mitch Griffis 753 · Rushing TJ Engleman 689 · Receiving Nathaniel Joseph 303 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow East Carolina:athletics siteAmerican Athletic
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #77 | #21 | +28.5✗ −9.5 | @Alabama | L 10-48 122 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Griffis 137 · Rush Gray 17 · Rec Johnson 68 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #76 | #96 | −6.5✗ −9.5 | App State | L 24-27 144 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Griffis 230 · Rush Gray 99 · Rec Melvin 94 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #81 | #68 | +2.5✓ +5.5 | @Old Dominion | W 20-17 132 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Griffis 58 · Rush Engleman Jr. 99 · Rec Lorick 27 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #82 | #197 | −37.5✗ −4.5 | North Carolina Central | W 42-9 130 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Williams 341 · Rush Engleman Jr. 129 · Rec Joseph 141 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #75 | #128 | −10✓ +6 | Rice | W 28-12 140 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Williams 143 · Rush Engleman Jr. 136 · Rec Joseph 68 |
| 7 | Oct 15 | #74 | #88 | −5.5✗ −18.5 | @UAB | L 17-30 146 | 3-3 | 1-1 | Pass Williams 126 · Rush Engleman Jr. 104 · Rec Dickerson 26 |
| 8 | Oct 22 | #95 | #62 | +10.5✓ +3.5 | @Memphis | L 34-41 157 Roaring | 3-4 | 1-2 | Pass Griffis 199 · Rush Engleman Jr. 92 · Rec Sides 130 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #96 | #116 | −4✓ +4 | Temple | W 17-9 124 | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Griffis 130 · Rush Engleman Jr. 107 · Rec Sides 58 |
| 10 | Nov 6 | #86 | #67 | −2.5 | South Florida | 7:30 pm ET · ESPN241% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #86 | #195 | @Charlotte | time TBA79% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Army | 12 pm ET · CBS Sports Network32% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | Florida Atlantic | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for East Carolina, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for East Carolina: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Temple | W 17-9 | 352 | 1 | 32:55 | +0.056 | 46.7% | 0.84 | One-score win |
| Oct 22 | @Memphis | L 34-41 | 421 | 3 | 29:01 | +0.169 | 34.2% | 1.49 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 15 | @UAB | L 17-30 | 317 | 2 | 34:11 | -0.198 | 36.2% | 1.09 | |
| Oct 10 | Rice | W 28-12 | 376 | 0 | 30:15 | -0.020 | 32.0% | 1.46 | |
| Sep 26 | North Carolina Central | W 42-9 | 489 | 4 | 21:36 | +0.320 | 54.1% | 1.14 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Old Dominion | W 20-17 | 276 | 1 | 30:37 | -0.276 | 28.4% | 1.06 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | App State | L 24-27 | 417 | 2 | 23:54 | +0.283 | 49.3% | 1.15 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | @Alabama | L 10-48 | 162 | 1 | 21:07 | -0.199 | 22.0% | 1.55 | Most explosive |
| Season average (8 games) | 351 | 1.8 | +0.017 | 37.9% | 1.22 | ||||
East Carolina's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Blake Harrell's 9-4 season raises the question of whether East Carolina can sustain its upward trajectory with a #83 talent rank and a win total that dipped slightly.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · East Carolina · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 3%; 5 wins 20%; 6 wins 41%; 7 wins 30%; 8 wins 7%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
East Carolina is the program that fills a purple cathedral in a tobacco town nobody plans to visit — and just answered the latest round of doubt with a nine-win season and a bowl trophy.
Pirate Nation has heard it for decades — too small, too remote, too G5 to matter. ECU fans treat that doubt as fuel, and the 2025 nine-win season was the latest receipt they shove back across the…
East Carolina · Game-day weather
Typical at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 89
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 111 at noon, 112 at 3:30 pm, 111 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
East Carolina is the American Athletic program whose Skip Holtz era + Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium purple haze + 2024 8-5 turnaround under Blake Harrell define what eastern-North-Carolina football identity looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · East Carolina · 2026