The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: UTSA 39%
Win out 1% · expect 1.4 of 4 more wins
Florida Atlantic's chance to win each game left, from our model: UTSA 39%, Tulsa 33%, South Florida 29%, East Carolina 35%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 56% to 85%, peaking at 94% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the American Athletic · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Caden Veltkamp 2,534 · Rushing Ethan Ervin 369 · Receiving Easton Messer 891 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Florida Atlantic:athletics siteAmerican AthleticX@FAUAthleticsInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #108 | #22 | +26.5✗ −18.5 | @Florida | L 21-66 157 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Veltkamp 276 · Rush Farrow 51 · Rec Valsin 92 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #106 | #71 | +4.5✓ +12.5 | Navy | W 38-30 136 | 1-1 | 1-0 | Pass Veltkamp 386 · Rush Ervin 67 · Rec Messer 179 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #110 | #115 | −5.5✓ +0.5 | Florida International | W 16-10 145 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Veltkamp 202 · Rush Ervin 36 · Rec Messer 83 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #116 | #171 | −11.5✓ +16.5 | @UL Monroe | W 45-17 144 | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass Veltkamp 314 · Rush Ervin 139 · Rec Valsin 123 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #110 | #218 | −47.5✓ +8.5 | Texas Southern | W 66-10 125 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Veltkamp 247 · Rush Tillman 48 · Rec Valsin 126 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #108 | #50 | +2.5✗ −29.5 | @Army | L 24-56 139 | 4-2 | 1-1 | Pass Veltkamp 318 · Rush Ervin 46 · Rec Messer 102 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #115 | #152 | −9.5✗ −7.5 | Rice | W 51-49 139 | 5-2 | 2-1 | Pass Veltkamp 339 · Rush Farrow 86 · Rec Messer 162 |
| 9 | Oct 29 | #120 | #54 | +15.5✓ +8.5 | @North Texas | L 41-48 167 | 5-3 | 2-2 | Pass Veltkamp 452 · Rush Farrow 47 · Rec Messer 189 |
| 10 | Nov 5 | #126 | #34 | +7 | UTSA | 7:30 pm ET · ESPN39% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #128 | #91 | @Tulsa | time TBA33% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | South Florida | time TBA29% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @East Carolina | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Florida Atlantic, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Florida Atlantic: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | @North Texas | L 41-48 | 523 | 2 | 24:55 | +0.156 | 41.4% | 1.54 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | Rice | W 51-49 | 461 | 1 | 30:57 | +0.283 | 51.9% | 1.16 | Best success rate |
| Oct 17 | @Army | L 24-56 | 432 | 3 | 27:12 | +0.209 | 47.4% | 1.31 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 3 | Texas Southern | W 66-10 | 453 | 0 | 17:38 | +0.392 | 51.9% | 1.49 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @UL Monroe | W 45-17 | 567 | 0 | 30:57 | +0.310 | 49.5% | 1.21 | Blowout win |
| Sep 19 | Florida International | W 16-10 | 258 | 0 | 26:12 | +0.061 | 38.8% | 1.04 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Navy | W 38-30 | 428 | 0 | 33:50 | +0.197 | 45.0% | 1.19 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | @Florida | L 21-66 | 396 | 3 | 28:24 | +0.108 | 40.2% | 1.12 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 440 | 1.1 | +0.214 | 45.7% | 1.26 | ||||
Florida Atlantic's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
I was just trying to find the ball, and attack the ball, really … Just doing my part
Range of outcomes · Florida Atlantic · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 19%; 6 wins 39%; 7 wins 30%; 8 wins 10%; 9 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
Florida Atlantic is the beach-campus program that touched the top of the sport for one Kiffin-blessed season — and has spent every year since trying to find its way back to paradise.
Owls fans know how the program gets framed — a sunny pit stop where good coaches audition for bigger jobs. They believe Boca is worth building at, not just leaving from, and they're tired of being…
Florida Atlantic · Game-day weather
Typical at FAU Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 88, noon Saturdays 61
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 97 at noon, 113 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Florida Atlantic is the American Athletic program whose Lane Kiffin 2017 11-3 + Conference USA championship + Howard Schnellenberger founding define what Boca-Raton-FBS-newcomer-football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Florida Atlantic · 2026