Florida Atlantic beats Florida International 16-10
Team pages: Florida International · Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic beat Florida International 16-10. Share this game
We had Florida Atlantic favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: Kohl incomplete to Anderson (Q4, 0:38). Florida Atlantic went from 76% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida Atlantic a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida Atlantic was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.
Favored the whole way: Florida Atlantic never fell below 64%.
Florida International never had better than a 35% chance.
Florida Atlantic 16-10 Florida International
Florida Atlantic wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Florida International 10-16 Florida AtlanticFlorida International lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:00Lyons 0-yd runFlorida Atlantic 72% → 86% (+14)
- 2Q4 0:38Kohl incomplete to AndersonFlorida Atlantic 76% → 100% (+24)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:00Lyons 0-yd runFlorida International 28% → 14% (−14)
- 2Q4 0:38Kohl incomplete to AndersonFlorida International 24% → 0% (−24)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Florida Atlantic -5.5), at 73% for Florida Atlantic (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Florida Atlantic scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Florida International on 2 of its 11.
Florida Atlantic’s drives are teal, Florida International’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Florida International’s side
Florida International’s best moment: Kohl 24-yd pass to Anderson (Q4 0:38). It lifted Florida International’s win chance by 11 points.
What it cost
Florida International’s chance to win the conference fell from 11% to 3%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Florida Atlantic 16, Florida International 10
Florida Atlantic covered −5.5 by 0.5. The total, 26, stayed under 62.5.
| Team totals | Florida International | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 357 | 258 |
| Passing | 22 of 43, 262 yds | 24 of 36, 202 yds |
| Rushing | 35 for 95 yds | 31 for 56 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 17 |
| Third down | 9 of 19 | 6 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Penalties | 8 for 65 yds | 10 for 81 yds |
| Time of possession | 33:48 | 26:12 |
Florida International leaders
- Passing J.J. Kohl 22 of 43, 262 yds, 3 INT
- Rushing Anthony Carrie 19 for 44 yds; James Resar 1 for 17 yds
- Receiving Maguire Anderson 8 for 139 yds; Tyson Carter 4 for 35 yds
Florida Atlantic leaders
- Passing Caden Veltkamp 24 of 36, 202 yds
- Rushing Ethan Ervin 13 for 36 yds; Leonard Farrow 5 for 17 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Easton Messer 7 for 83 yds; Kelby Valsin 6 for 56 yds
No rain through the game
82° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 83°, with about 7 in 10 games between 80° and 86°.
September game-day temperatures at FAU Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Boca Raton Airport, 0.6 miles away, and Pompano Beach airport, 9.0 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Florida International · 1-1
Rated 124th in our preseason ratings, 115th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Florida Atlantic
- Wk 1Lat Florida21-66
- Wk 2Wvs Navy38-30
Florida International
- Wk 1Lat South Florida9-19
- Wk 2Wvs Buffalo33-20
Power rating by week
Florida Atlantic is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Florida International’s passing EPA against Florida Atlantic, 32 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida International’s passing EPA against Florida Atlantic’s defense
Florida International offense, 29th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 61st
Florida International’s EPA/play against Florida Atlantic’s defense
Florida International offense, 24th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 5th
Florida International’s explosive plays against Florida Atlantic’s defense
Florida International offense, 22nd percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 4th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Florida Atlantic leads the series 16-6
22 meetings since 2003 · Florida International won the last meeting
- 2025Florida International 38-28
- 2024Florida Atlantic 38-20
- 2022Florida Atlantic 52-7
- 2021Florida Atlantic 58-21
- 2020Florida Atlantic 38-19
Each line is Florida Atlantic’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Florida Atlantic fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (59th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Florida Atlantic favored by 5.5 · Total 62.5
How games like this usually go
Florida Atlantic by 5.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Florida International.
Spread: −7.5 → −5.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Florida Atlantic is worth +4.2 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 52nd percentile.
56% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (24-19 home, 14-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.8 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±7.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 46 miles to get here.