The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Memphis 47%, East Carolina 59%, Tulane 70%
Win out 14% · expect 2.5 of 4 more wins
South Florida's chance to win each game left, from our model: East Carolina 59%, Memphis 47%, Florida Atlantic 71%, Tulane 70%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 28% to 6%, peaking at 30% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the American Athletic · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Michael Van Buren Jr. 1,273 · Rushing D.J. Crowther 578 · Receiving Bryson Rodgers 345 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow South Florida:athletics siteAmerican AthleticX@USFAthleticsInstagram@usfathletics
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #64 | #124 | −14.5✗ −4.5 | Florida International | W 19-9 131 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Buren Jr. 100 · Rush Collins Jr. 59 · Rec Branch 47 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #64 | #39 | +3✓ +7 | @Army | W 28-24 117 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Buren Jr. 239 · Rush Buren Jr. 45 · Rec Porter 67 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #66 | #185 | −37.5✓ +4.5 | Delaware State | W 59-17 124 | 3-0 | 1-0 | Pass Buren Jr. 300 · Rush Crowther 101 · Rec Porter 106 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #57 | #152 | −17.5✗ −9.5 | @Bowling Green | W 14-6 114 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Buren Jr. 52 · Rush Crowther 143 · Rec Rodgers 22 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #57 | #89 | −5.5✗ −9.5 | Temple | L 13-17 116 | 4-1 | 1-1 | Pass Buren Jr. 205 · Rush Crowther 68 · Rec Seldon 53 |
| 6 | Oct 8 | #60 | #23 | +5.5✗ −1.5 | @UTSA | L 24-31 136 Loud | 4-2 | 1-2 | Pass Buren Jr. 177 · Rush Crowther 83 · Rec Rodgers 72 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #62 | #143 | −20.5✓ +6.5 | Kent State | W 29-2 127 Loud | 5-2 | 1-2 | Pass Buren Jr. 193 · Rush Crowther 42 · Rec Seldon 60 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #64 | #79 | −7.5✓ +12.5 | UAB | W 30-10 116 | 6-2 | 2-2 | Pass Kromenhoek 39 · Rush Kromenhoek 92 · Rec Crowther 19 |
| 10 | Nov 6 | #67 | #86 | +2.5 | @East Carolina | 7:30 pm ET · ESPN259% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 12 | #68 | #52 | Memphis | 8 pm ET · ESPN47% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Florida Atlantic | time TBA71% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | Tulane | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for South Florida, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for South Florida: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | UAB | W 30-10 | 237 | 0 | 32:18 | -0.060 | 34.5% | 0.82 | |
| Oct 17 | Kent State | W 29-2 | 271 | 0 | 28:14 | -0.068 | 44.1% | 0.96 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 8 | @UTSA | L 24-31 | 288 | 0 | 27:35 | +0.154 | 41.0% | 1.16 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | Temple | L 13-17 | 319 | 1 | 30:55 | +0.009 | 41.2% | 0.94 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @Bowling Green | W 14-6 | 214 | 2 | 27:26 | -0.120 | 45.3% | 1.03 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Delaware State | W 59-17 | 611 | 1 | 28:39 | +0.680 | 63.6% | 1.40 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Army | W 28-24 | 369 | 0 | 24:14 | +0.351 | 51.8% | 1.31 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | Florida International | W 19-9 | 208 | 0 | 30:09 | -0.063 | 43.1% | 0.65 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 315 | 0.5 | +0.111 | 45.6% | 1.03 | ||||
South Florida's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.
We’ve got to improve at destroying blocks on defense and getting ball carriers to the ground
1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Brian Hartline took over as South Florida's head coach, replacing Kevin Patrick.
Statusfront page
Range of outcomes · South Florida · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 2%; 7 wins 13%; 8 wins 34%; 9 wins 37%; 10 wins 14%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Brian Hartline took over as South Florida's head coach, replacing Kevin Patrick. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The coverage hasn't settled, and believers and skeptics both make specific cases. The coverage is split, with specific cases for and against.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Only 1 of 1401 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Board health this week (52 posts): 17% positive · 58% neutral · 25% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
South Florida went from not existing in 1996 to No. 2 in the country by 2007 — then spent a decade in the wreckage, until a 2025 offense that hung 43 a game and beat two ranked teams in eight days put the Bulls back on the map.
Bulls fans remember being No. 2 in the country and then being written off entirely — and they remember 2025, when USF beat Boise State and Florida in eight days and made the doubters look up again…
South Florida is the American Athletic program whose Charlie Strong tenure + 2024 7-6 Alex Golesh rebuild + Big East historical legacy define what Tampa Bay football survival looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
6Brian Hartline replaces Kevin Patrick as South Florida's head coach.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · South Florida · 2026