coachingthis cycle✓ factnew
Brian Hartline took over as South Florida's head coach, replacing Kevin Patrick.
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons
our readfront page
South Florida
2-0Latest
American Athletic · Brian Hartline, year 1 (2-0) · Raymond James Stadium · 65,828 · 41,847 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#67 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #76 (-3.1) · FPI #67
The marketno line yetvs Delaware State · our model 94% South Florida · a number, not a pick
LastW 28–24 at Army · Sat Sep 12 · Michael Van Buren Jr. 239 pass yds, 2 TD, 45 rush yds
Nextvs Delaware State · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
South Florida · 2026 schedule & results2-0
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #64 | #124 | -14.5✗ | Florida International | W 19–9 131 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #67 | #38 | +3✓ | @Army | W 28–24 117 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #67 | #186 | Delaware State | ||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #67 | #135 | @Bowling Green | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | Temple | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 8 | @UTSA | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Kent State | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | UAB | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @East Carolina | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 13 | Memphis | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Florida Atlantic | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | Tulane |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @Army | W 28–24 | 369 | 0 | 24:14 | +0.351 | 51.8% | 131.0% | |
| Sep 5 | Florida International | W 19–9 | 208 | 0 | 30:09 | -0.063 | 43.1% | 64.9% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 288 | 0.0 | +0.144 | 47.4% | 98.0% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
South Florida went from not existing in 1996 to No. 2 in the country by 2007 — then spent a decade in the wreckage, until a 2025 offense that hung 43 a game and beat two ranked teams in eight days put the Bulls back on the map.
Standard GapThe fastest rise in modern football history — unranked-to-No.-2 in eleve…
Bulls fans remember being No. 2 in the country and then being written off entirely — and they remember 2025, when USF beat Boise State and Florida in eight days and made the doubters look up again. Th…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
South Florida fans
W 19–9 vs Florida International
South Florida fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 9-4 · last season
Game feel64even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 14 in the American Athletic
Heart rate1-2rarely closein one-score games (3 of 13)11th most one-score games of 14 in the American Athletic
Margin+17.1comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 14 in the American Athletic
Tempo70average paceoffensive plays / game4th fastest of 13 in the American Athletic
Big plays1.33highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)3rd most explosive of 14 in the American Athletic
Home crowd33,194avg attendance2nd biggest crowds of 14 in the American Athletic
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
South Florida has won four of its last five.
Warming. 7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Streak W2Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
They’ve got a great quarterback, and their kicker might be one of the best kickers, maybe the best kicker in the country
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Delaware State · at home
EliteStrongGives up the big play
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#58 in field+50000
AAC title#5 in market+600
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
South Florida · the story right now
11 storylines developing
What South Florida's coaching hire is really about
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
coaching2025 cycle~readnew
Hartline inherits a 9-4 program with 13% production returning, but the third coach in five years means the identity crisis in Tampa Bay isn't just about talent — it's about stability.
what happenedKevin Patrick took over as South Florida's head coach, replacing Alex Golesh. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons
our readfront page
identitythis cycle~readnew
Brian Hartline begins his tenure with a 9-4 record and an uneasy fanbase, tasked with sustaining South Florida's identity amid shifting expectations and historical legacy.
what happenedSouth Florida: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
portal2026-05-19~readnew
Golesh’s top-3 AAC portal class adds LB, WR, and CB upgrades to a 9-4 core with 100% production returning — this isn’t a rescue mission.
what happenedSouth Florida signed a top-17 transfer-portal class — 44 additions headlined by Luke Kromenhoek (QB) from Mississippi State and Michael Van Buren Jr. (QB) from LSU. ✓ fact
the contexta top-3 portal class in the American Athletic this cycle
our readfront page
deep threat2025 cycle✓ factnew
Keshaun Singleton is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
our readdeveloping
closer2025 cycle✓ factnew
Sam Franklin gets LESS work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict -- not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest, and what late usage he does get skews toward mop-up duty in blowouts.
our readdeveloping
coordinators2025 cycle~readnew
Brian Hartline inherits a 9-4 winning record but faces unease in Tampa Bay as South Florida's coordinator change reshapes its identity in the American Athletic Conference.
what happenedSouth Florida: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
our readdeveloping
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Alvon Isaac: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
closer2025 cycle~attributednew
Nykahi Davenport: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
portal2025-08-03~readnew
Alex Golesh's top-17 portal class adds Izaiah Guy and Chavez Brown to a 9-4 roster with 100% production returning — this is addition, not rescue.
what happenedSouth Florida signed a top-81 transfer-portal class — 23 additions headlined by Izaiah Guy (CB) from Georgia State and Chas Nimrod (WR) from Tennessee. ✓ fact
our readbackground
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Alex Golesh's third season opens with a 9-4 record and a #25 AP finish, anchoring a rebuild that balances Big East legacy with American Athletic ambitions.
what happenedSouth Florida: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
our readfront page
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedSouth Florida moved on from that hire — a new coaching change began the following season. See who's next →
Died downSouth Florida's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · South Florida · 2026
Outcome band · South Florida · 2026South Florida's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.
Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6
0 wins13 wins
Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · South Florida · Coaching Confidence
The Brian Hartline story at South Florida won't sit still.
Brian Hartline took over as South Florida's head coach, replacing Kevin Patrick. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room has bought in, but early believers have been wrong before.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers4 bull takes
Developing2 new this week
2 days agoBrian Hartline's swagger had USF ready for the moment of truth at Army — Green, Gold, and Bold
6 days agoHartline Era: 1-0. Bulls Sneak Past Florida International, 19-9 — SoFloBulls
last weekSouth Florida Football Downs FIU, 19-9, To Open Hartline Era — USF Athletics
last weekDL Traevon Mitchell granted temporary eligibility relief — Reported
May 19LB Michael Harris transfer commits from Maryland — CFBD /player/portal
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Brian Hartline Head coach
“Brian Hartline's swagger had USF ready for the moment of truth at Army” — Green, Gold, and Bold · 2026-09-13
Kevin Patrick Out
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
The room is running hot. The real test is whether the momentum holds once the calendar moves past the announcement.
Next · what to watch
The obvious story is the marquee name; the non-obvious one is roster churn — a coaching change keeps a portal and decommit window open long after the introductory presser. Watch decommitments and portal moves in the next window — that's where this is actually won or lost, not at the podium.
Source of record: Brian Hartline took over as South Florida's head coach, replacing Kevin Patrick — the program's third head coach in five seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers4 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.›
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
“Gramatica kicks 4 FGs, USF gives new head coach Hartline a 19-9 win over Florida International”
Spectrum Bay News 9 · 2026-09-06 · read ↗
“Hartline Era Opens With 19-9 Win Over FIU”
American Conference · 2026-09-06 · read ↗
“Hartline wins USF debut 19-9 behind Bulls' defense and Gramatica's 4 field goals”
WUSF · 2026-09-06 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
🔗The dominoes10 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.›
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
“Recruiting expert Larry Blustein breaks down top South Florida high school football talent to watch in 2026”
CBS News · 2026-09-04 · read ↗
“South Florida recruiting expert Larry Blustein breaks down 2026 high school football talent to watch”
CBS News · 2026-09-04 · read ↗
Developing · South Florida · Coaching Confidence
The Kevin Patrick era at South Florida: where it actually stands.
Kevin Patrick took over as South Florida's head coach, replacing Alex Golesh. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The hire has receded from the front page. The roster and recruiting pipeline are the real measure now. The discourse has moved on; what's left is the quiet work of building something.
The saga so far~5 months old
last weekDL Traevon Mitchell granted temporary eligibility relief — Reported
4 weeks agoWATCH: What's it like being one of 28 high schools sponsored by Patrick Mahomes, Adidas? — USA Today
May 19LB Michael Harris transfer commits from Maryland — CFBD /player/portal
Apr 30EDGE Harrysson Ngassa transfer commits from Illinois — CFBD /player/portal
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Kevin Patrick Head coach
“WATCH: What's it like being one of 28 high schools sponsored by Patrick Mahomes, Adidas?” — USA Today · 2026-08-15
Alex Golesh Out
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Hartline inherits a 9-4 program with 13% production returning, but the third coach in five years means the identity crisis in Tampa Bay isn't just about talent — it's about stability.
Next · what to watch
The obvious story is the marquee name; the non-obvious one is roster churn — a coaching change keeps a portal and decommit window open long after the introductory presser. Watch decommitments and portal moves in the next window — that's where this is actually won or lost, not at the podium.
Source of record: Kevin Patrick took over as South Florida's head coach, replacing Alex Golesh — the program's third head coach in five seasons.
How each room reacted — tap to expand
📣Believers0 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.›
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
“WATCH: What's it like being one of 28 high schools sponsored by Patrick Mahomes, Adidas?”
USA Today · 2026-08-15 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards1 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 1 of 1296 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
🔗The dominoes10 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.›
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
“Recruiting expert Larry Blustein breaks down top South Florida high school football talent to watch in 2026”
CBS News · 2026-09-04 · read ↗
“South Florida recruiting expert Larry Blustein breaks down 2026 high school football talent to watch”
CBS News · 2026-09-04 · read ↗
Rival pulse
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
South Florida is the American Athletic program whose Charlie Strong tenure + 2024 7-6 Alex Golesh rebuild + Big East historical legacy define what Tampa Bay football survival looks like.
Offense: EliteDefense: StrongDefensive shape: Gives up the big play
Open questions
The story
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2026Hired Brian Hartline
- 2025 · Wk 13Fell out of the AP Top 25The committee dropped them out too, from No. 24.Week 12 · Lost 38-41 at Navy
- 2025 · Wk 12Entered the AP Top 25The committee brought them in too, at No. 24.Week 11 · Won 55-23 at home over UTSA
- 2025 · Wk 10Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 9 · Lost 31-34 at Memphis
- 2025 · Wk 8Climbed to No. 19 in the AP Top 25Week 7 · Won 63-36 at North Texas
- 2025 · Wk 7Entered the AP Top 25Week 6 · Won 54-26 at home over Charlotte
- 2025 · Wk 4Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 3 · Lost 12-49 at Miami
- 2025 · Wk 3Entered the AP Top 25Week 2 · Won 18-16 at Florida
- 2025Kevin Patrick departs (interim)
- 2025Alex Golesh departs
Roster
Roster Reload - South Florida
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production13%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#52 nationally247 composite 703.8
Portal Additions44Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses34Primary pressure: CB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#90Depth class
WRin 6 - Armani Winfieldout 7 - Tyler WilliamsDowngrade
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down
Transferred in
CBin 5 - Za'Quan Bryanout 7 - James ChenaultStarter Risk
current room: 187 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickel2025 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
Homegrown
QBin 4 - Luke Kromenhoekout 3 - Byrum BrownUpgrade
current room: 223 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Scrambler2024 profileextends plays with his feet until something opens up
Full roster (113 players)
CBAmarion Fortenberry, Daron Jean, Deylen Platt, Herlin Perry Jr., Ja'Kyri Watson, Jair Murphy, Keyshaun Birks, Masiyah Limehouse, Teddy Foster, Za'Quan Bryan
DEBrooks Williams Jr., C.J. Hicks, Eli Jones, Harrysson Ngassa, Levi Smiley, Michael Williams II, Peter Ramil, Terrell Jones
DTAsani Redwood, Major Dillard, Marcus Williams, Richard Scott III, Ryan Jenkins, Sager Quinn, Terry Simmons
LBAshton Mosley, Christian Smith, DeAngelo Bowden, Demetrius Geathers Jr., Dennis King III, Gavin Leach, Grayson Howard, Greg Otten, Lorenzo Barnes, Marshon Oxley, Michael Harris, Rodney Hill, Sam Robinson, Shamar Meikle, Zavier Hamilton
OLBraden Carter, Caleb Cook, Caleb Harris, Cash Hudson, Colin Bellomy, Devin Davis, Ethan Green, Gerrick Gordon Jr., James Jenkins, Jaylin Acevedo, Jordan Harrison, Julius Tate, Kahari Finley, Khalil Collins, Michael Wooten, TJ Lawrence, Teriyan Morman, Thomas Shrader
RBAlvon Isaac, Chase Garnett, Connor Mathews, D.J. Crowther, Jason Collins Jr., Jayson Franklin, Jeremiah Johnson, Tray Kinkle
SA'mon Lane-Ganus, Amari Jones, CJ Cresser Jr., Cedrick Hawkins Jr., Derrick Nichols III, Israel Boyce, Jermichael Gillis, Tavin Ward, Victor Zidor
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · South Florida
4 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
DL Traevon Mitchell granted temporary eligibility relief
Mitchell's temporary relief keeps a top-81 transfer class intact on the line — USF's depth push in the American gets a little more real before the opener.
- Portal
LB Michael Harris transfer commits from Maryland
Maryland's LB room ran deep enough to lose Harris without blinking — USF's didn't, not after McCormick Jr. walked and the portal ledger still sat net-minus at linebacker before this landed.
- Portal
EDGE Harrysson Ngassa transfer commits from Illinois
Singleton's gone and the EDGE room already had 8 portal adds — Ngassa from the Big Ten isn't depth-stacking, it's a starter-caliber upgrade on a position that had a real gap to fill.
- News
American Conference announces revenue sharing
American revenue sharing hits different when your class sits 89th nationally and CB depth is still a question — Golesh needs that money to close roster gaps, not just celebrate a conference announcement.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-1.8 net portal points
(raw ledger: +18.5 — unweighted, no position adjustment)OT+10.4
need filled
RB-7.3
starter risk
CB-6.9
starter risk
EDGE+6.6
need filled
DL+4.6
need filled
S+4.4
need filled
WR-3.8
LB+3.7
LS+3.0
low confidence
QB+2.7
IOL+2.5
K-2.3
TE+0.9
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Dennis King III
#966 national
Profiles like a typical incoming linebacker — 10 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Jordan Harrison
#966 national
★★★☆☆
Iverson Garcia-Ponce
#1308 national
Projects: Nose Anchor — 11 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Nose Anchor archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
18
FL · 12AL · 1DC · 1GA · 1NC · 1TN · 1TX · 1
FL leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
89 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median South Florida player grew up 296 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
61st-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%83–781 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi26%28 of 107 players
Farthest2,349 miD.J. Crowther · Sacramento, CA
Closest3 miBryson Rodgers · Tampa, FL
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Raymond James Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 107 of 113 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
How it turned out
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
31st
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
8.5
Vegas O/U wins
(82nd among FBS)
(82nd among FBS)
Market 51pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 2 books
Penalties
Penalty battle
Winning the penalty battle: 7 penalties committed vs. 12 drawn on opponents, a 50-yard edge.
45 penalty yards committed vs. 95 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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