South Florida at East Carolina
South Florida (6‑2) travels to East Carolina (4‑4), with East Carolina favored by 2.5. South Florida’s passing offense is at the 8th percentile; East Carolina’s pass defense is at the 97th.
How they got here
Last three games
South Florida · 6-2
Rated 64th in our preseason ratings, 67th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
East Carolina · 4-4
Rated 77th in our preseason ratings, 86th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: South Florida’s passing EPA against East Carolina, 89 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
South Florida’s passing EPA against East Carolina’s defense
South Florida offense, 8th percentile · East Carolina defense, 97th
East Carolina’s EPA/play against South Florida’s defense
East Carolina offense, 13th percentile · South Florida defense, 71st
East Carolina’s explosive plays against South Florida’s defense
East Carolina offense, 40th percentile · South Florida defense, 93rd
What’s at stake
South Florida
- South Florida is 2 games back in American Athletic with 3 left to make it up — 10% to win it with a win here, 1% with a loss.
- South Florida is coming off a 20-point win.
East Carolina
- East Carolina needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 94% to get there with a win here, 66% with a loss.
- East Carolina is the American Athletic program whose Skip Holtz era + Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium purple haze + 2024 8-5 turnaround under Blake Harrell define what eastern-North-Carolina football identity looks like.
The series
South Florida leads the series 9-4
13 meetings since 2002 · East Carolina has won the last 3
- 2022 · neutral siteEast Carolina 48-28
- 2021East Carolina 29-14
- 2020East Carolina 44-24
- 2019South Florida 45-20
- 2018South Florida 20-13
Each line is East Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
South Florida
The chip · vs the national mediaBulls fans remember being No. 2 in the country and then being written off entirely — and they remember 2025, when USF beat Boise State and Florida in eight days and made the doubters look up again. They'll tell you nobody believed the rebuild until the scoreboard forced it.
What this game touches
The lost decade after No. 2 — and the coach who just walked out. USF climbed from a 1997 startup to No. 2 in 2007, then collapsed: the Leavitt firing, losing seasons, near-irrelevance. Alex Golesh finally rebuilt the Bulls into a 9-4, top-ten-scoring team in 2025 — and then left for Auburn in late November before the bowl, which USF lost. The Bulls open 2026 under Brian Hartline, hoping the momentum survived the exit.
East Carolina
The chip · vs the national mediaPirate Nation has heard it for decades — too small, too remote, too G5 to matter. ECU fans treat that doubt as fuel, and the 2025 nine-win season was the latest receipt they shove back across the table.
What this game touches
The wilderness before Harrell. ECU spent stretches of the late 2010s and early 2020s buried below .500 and irrelevant nationally — the long flat patch that made even Pirate Nation wonder if the program's best days were a generation gone, before Blake Harrell pulled it back to 9-4 and a Military Bowl win in 2025.
Best players
South Florida
- Ayden Jackson (DB) · 42 tackles
- Zavier Hamilton (LB) · 40 tackles
- Tavin Ward (S) · 39 tackles
East Carolina
- DJ Johnson Jr. (LB) · 56 tackles
- Crews Law (LB) · 48 tackles
- TJ Engleman (RB) · 689 rushing yards
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. South Florida: D.J. Crowther (578 rushing yards); East Carolina: TJ Engleman (689 rushing yards).
The spread has moved 4.0 points toward East Carolina since opening (+1.5 → −2.5).
The total has moved down 6.0 points since opening (45.5 → 39.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
East Carolina fans are in a better mood than South Florida fans (98th percentile vs 71st among FBS fanbases), even with South Florida favored.
- Model · 41%
- Line · 58%
- East Carolina fans · 98th
- South Florida fans · 71st
East Carolina favored by 2.5 · Total 39.5
East Carolina by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
East Carolina’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 89
South Florida at East Carolina · Friday, Nov. 6 · 7:30 pm ET · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium: noon Saturdays score 90, 3:30 pm 89, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 90, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
East Carolina is worth +4.0 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.
44% at home, 35% on the road against FBS opponents (19-24 home, 17-31 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 607 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
East Carolina
- Wk 4Wvs North Carolina Central42-9
- Wk 6Wvs Rice28-12
- Wk 7Lat UAB17-30
- Wk 8Lat Memphis34-41
- Wk 9Wvs Temple17-9
South Florida
- Wk 4Wat Bowling Green14-6
- Wk 5Lvs Temple13-17
- Wk 6Lat UTSA24-31
- Wk 7Wvs Kent State29-2
- Wk 9Wvs UAB30-10
Power rating by week
South Florida is rated 2.4 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward East Carolina.
The total fell 6 points.
Spread: +1.5 → −2.5 · Total: 45.5 → 39.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- East Carolina8th2-2
- South Florida9th2-2