Memphis beats East Carolina 41-34 in overtime
Team pages: East Carolina · Memphis
Memphis beat East Carolina 41-34 in overtime. Share this game
We had Memphis favored. It won.
Next: East Carolina vs Temple, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET · East Carolina favored by 6
Next: Memphis vs Army, Sat Oct 31 · 8:00 PM ET · Memphis favored by 6.5
Top comment in the game thread
Has anyone had the scary thought that one of these teams will actually win this football game.
How it swung
The turning point: Griffis intercepted by Ellis at the Memphis 0 (OT). Memphis went from 66% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Memphis a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (Memphis was a 10.5-point favorite) put it at 80%.
Memphis came back from 14 down, at one point just a 16% chance in the third quarter.
East Carolina led by 14, was as high as 84% in the third quarter, and still lost.
Memphis 41-34 East Carolina
Memphis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.East Carolina 34-41 MemphisEast Carolina lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q1 2:55Gray 1-yd TD run, East Carolina leads 10-0Memphis 75% → 45% (−30)
- 2Q3 10:20Engleman 4-yd TD run, East Carolina leads 24-10Memphis 42% → 17% (−25)
- 3Q4 1:304th and 9Griffis 20-yd TD pass to Sides, ties it 34-34Memphis 90% → 69% (−21)
- 4OTInterceptionGriffis intercepted by Ellis at the Memphis 0Memphis 66% → 100% (+34)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q1 2:55Gray 1-yd TD run, East Carolina leads 10-0East Carolina 25% → 55% (+30)
- 2Q3 10:20Engleman 4-yd TD run, East Carolina leads 24-10East Carolina 58% → 83% (+25)
- 3Q4 1:304th and 9Griffis 20-yd TD pass to Sides, ties it 34-34East Carolina 10% → 31% (+21)
- 4OTInterceptionGriffis intercepted by Ellis at the Memphis 0East Carolina 34% → 0% (−34)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q2 8:32Fans debate if Griffis fumble is a forward pass as Memphis recovers
Mitch Griffis made his college football debut back when Tenet was in theaters. That's three Christopher Nolan films ago.
r/CFB game threadMemphis defender not getting that was so questionable
r/CFB game thread - Q2 1:14Memphis fumbles punt return, giving East Carolina ball at Memphis 46Same comment as the top reaction.
- Q2 0:00Perez kicks a 49-yard field goal as time expires, making it 16-3
Nice kick Perez! Career long! ECU offensive player of the year in the running!
r/CFB game thread - Q4 11:26Memphis punts, ECU muffers the kick, and Memphis recovers for a turnover
Oh we’re 100% betting
r/CFB game thread - Q4 3:31Memphis fans celebrate taking the lead as Stokes rushes for a touchdown
if only we won last week…
r/CFB game thread - Q4 1:34Griffis throws touchdown to Sides, tying game with 1:30 left
That WR who dropped it just got bailed out of weeks of nightmares.
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Memphis -10.5), at 83% for Memphis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Memphis’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 2:55Gray 1-yd TD runEast Carolina leads 10-0Q1, 2:55 · Memphis 0, East Carolina 10▼30%Memphis’s chance to win, 75% to 45%▼30%Memphis’s chance to win, 75% to 45%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 10:58Griffis intercepted by Logan at the Memphis 25returned 10 yardsQ2, 10:58 · Memphis 3, East Carolina 10▲9%Memphis’s chance to win, 50% to 59%▲9%Memphis’s chance to win, 50% to 59%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 1:0147-yd punt, Brown returns it 10fumbledQ2, 1:01 · Memphis 3, East Carolina 13▼8%Memphis’s chance to win, 48% to 40%▼8%Memphis’s chance to win, 48% to 40%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 13:37Stokes 59-yd TD pass to Hayescuts it to 16-10Q3, 13:37 · Memphis 10, East Carolina 16▲11%Memphis’s chance to win, 36% to 47%▲11%Memphis’s chance to win, 36% to 47%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 6:31Stokes 20-yd TD pass to Daviscuts it to 24-17Q3, 6:31 · Memphis 17, East Carolina 24▲16%Memphis’s chance to win, 21% to 37%▲16%Memphis’s chance to win, 21% to 37%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 9:48Stokes 4-yd TD pass to Davisties it 27-27Q4, 9:48 · Memphis 27, East Carolina 27▲15%Memphis’s chance to win, 48% to 63%▲15%Memphis’s chance to win, 48% to 63%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 8:51Griffis sacked for a 2-yd lossfumblesQ4, 8:51 · Memphis 27, East Carolina 27▲2%Memphis’s chance to win, 63% to 65%▲2%Memphis’s chance to win, 63% to 65%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 1:30Griffis 20-yd TD pass to Sidesties it 34-34Q4, 1:30 · Memphis 34, East Carolina 34▼21%Memphis’s chance to win, 90% to 69%▼21%Memphis’s chance to win, 90% to 69%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- OvertimeGriffis intercepted by Ellis at the Memphis 0Overtime · Memphis 41, East Carolina 34▲34%Memphis’s chance to win, 66% to 100%▲34%Memphis’s chance to win, 66% to 100%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Memphis scored on 7 of its 15 drives; East Carolina on 7 of its 15.
Memphis’s drives are teal, East Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From East Carolina’s side
East Carolina’s best moment: Gray 1-yd TD run, East Carolina leads 10-0 (Q1 2:55). It lifted East Carolina’s win chance by 30 points.
“The guy in front of the intended reciever got held too. What an absolute robbery”
When fans got loud
Roaring
The jump was roaring; the crowd was steady.
Too close to call on 55% of plays. The winner fell to 11%.
What it cost
Memphis’s chance to make the playoff rose from 1% to 2%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 21, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
East Carolina plays vs Temple on Sat Oct 31 with a 1% chance to win the conference. Memphis plays vs Army on Sat Oct 31 with a 2% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Memphis 41, East Carolina 34
East Carolina covered +10.5 by 3.5. The total, 75, went over 55.5.
| Team totals | East Carolina | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 421 | 484 |
| Passing | 19 of 39, 260 yds | 29 of 43, 320 yds |
| Rushing | 38 for 161 yds | 37 for 164 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 24 |
| Third down | 5 of 17 | 4 of 15 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Penalties | 3 for 23 yds | 9 for 76 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:01 | 30:59 |
East Carolina leaders
- Passing Mitch Griffis 14 of 26, 199 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing TJ Engleman 18 for 92 yds, 1 TD; Ashton Gray 9 for 25 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Landon Sides 7 for 130 yds, 1 TD; Ashton Gray 3 for 39 yds
Memphis leaders
- Passing Marcus Stokes 29 of 43, 320 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Manny Covey 11 for 79 yds; Jaylin Carter 16 for 53 yds
- Receiving Jemyri Davis 7 for 91 yds, 2 TD; Jermane Hayes 3 for 89 yds, 1 TD
No rain and calm
70° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 17
October game-day temperatures at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Memphis International Airport, 4.2 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
East Carolina · 3-3
Rated 77th in our preseason ratings, 95th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Memphis · 5-2
Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 62nd now, up 38 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Memphis
- Wk 2Lat Boise State20-38
- Wk 3Wvs UT Martin45-21
- Wk 5Wat Charlotte59-8
- Wk 6Wvs UAB38-13
- Wk 7Lat Tulane17-31
East Carolina
- Wk 2Lvs App State24-27
- Wk 3Wat Old Dominion20-17
- Wk 4Wvs North Carolina Central42-9
- Wk 6Wvs Rice28-12
- Wk 7Lat UAB17-30
Power rating by week
Memphis is rated 3.0 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: East Carolina’s success rate against Memphis, 68 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
East Carolina’s success rate against Memphis’s defense
East Carolina offense, 8th percentile · Memphis defense, 76th
East Carolina’s passing EPA against Memphis’s defense
East Carolina offense, 13th percentile · Memphis defense, 79th
East Carolina’s explosive plays against Memphis’s defense
East Carolina offense, 68th percentile · Memphis defense, 11th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
East Carolina leads the series 18-8
26 meetings since 1990 · East Carolina has won the last 3
- 2025East Carolina 31-27
- 2022East Carolina 47-45
- 2021East Carolina 30-29
- 2018Memphis 59-41
- 2017Memphis 70-13
Each line is Memphis’s chance to win through that meeting. Memphis is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Memphis fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (93rd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Memphis favored by 10.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
Memphis by 10.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 416 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Memphis.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −9.5 → −10.5 · Total: 53.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Memphis is worth +3.1 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 30th percentile.
81% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (39-9 home, 24-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.8 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 711 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Memphis 70, East Carolina 13Nov 25, 2017
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Memphis5th2-1
- East Carolina8th1-1