Memphis beats Arkansas State 42-24

Team pages: Arkansas State · Memphis

Arkansas State0-124
Memphis2-042Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, Tenn. · Crowd 45,632ESPN+

Memphis beat Arkansas State 42-24.

We had Memphis favored. It won.

Next: Arkansas State beat West Georgia 52-7, Sat Sep 12

Next: Memphis lost to Boise State 38-20, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Owens 75-yd TD pass to Clay, Arkansas State goes ahead 17-14 (Q2, 3:26). Memphis went from 88% to 63% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Memphis a 76% chance, and the closing betting line (Memphis was a 10.5-point favorite) put it at 80%.

Favored the whole way: Memphis never fell below 62%.

Arkansas State never had better than a 38% chance.

75-yard TD passArkansas State · Q2 3:26
FinalMemphis 42-24 Arkansas StateMemphis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfMemphisWon42-2412−20−25Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfMemphisWon42-2412Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfMemphisLost24-4212+20+25Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfMemphisLost24-4212Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 7:42Clay 1-yd TD run, Arkansas State goes ahead 10-7Memphis 84% → 64% (−20)
  2. 2Q2 3:26Owens 75-yd TD pass to Clay, Arkansas State goes ahead 17-14Memphis 88% → 63% (−25)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 7:42Clay 1-yd TD run, Arkansas State goes ahead 10-7Arkansas State 16% → 36% (+20)
  2. 2Q2 3:26Owens 75-yd TD pass to Clay, Arkansas State goes ahead 17-14Arkansas State 12% → 37% (+25)
Memphis’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Memphis -10.5), at 81% for Memphis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Memphis’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 5:26Stokes intercepted by Henderson at the ASU48returned 17 yardsQ1, 5:26 · Memphis 0, Arkansas State 0▼3%Memphis’s chance to win, 76% to 73%▼3%Memphis’s chance to win, 76% to 73%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q2, 12:02Carter 2-yd TD runMemphis goes ahead 7-3Q2, 12:02 · Memphis 7, Arkansas State 3▲10%Memphis’s chance to win, 74% to 84%▲10%Memphis’s chance to win, 74% to 84%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 7:42Clay 1-yd TD runArkansas State goes ahead 10-7Q2, 7:42 · Memphis 7, Arkansas State 10▼20%Memphis’s chance to win, 84% to 64%▼20%Memphis’s chance to win, 84% to 64%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 3:37Stokes 7-yd TD pass to O'CallaghanMemphis goes ahead 14-10Q2, 3:37 · Memphis 14, Arkansas State 10▲16%Memphis’s chance to win, 72% to 88%▲16%Memphis’s chance to win, 72% to 88%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q2, 3:26Owens 75-yd TD pass to ClayArkansas State goes ahead 17-14Q2, 3:26 · Memphis 14, Arkansas State 17▼25%Memphis’s chance to win, 88% to 63%▼25%Memphis’s chance to win, 88% to 63%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q2, 0:40Stokes 31-yd TD pass to HayesMemphis goes ahead 21-17Q2, 0:40 · Memphis 21, Arkansas State 17▲11%Memphis’s chance to win, 73% to 84%▲11%Memphis’s chance to win, 73% to 84%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q3, 11:26Owens sacked for a 8-yd lossQ3, 11:26 · Memphis 28, Arkansas State 1728-17score after the play28-17score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q3, 3:25Carter 74-yd TD runMemphis leads 35-24Q3, 3:25 · Memphis 35, Arkansas State 24▲10%Memphis’s chance to win, 85% to 95%▲10%Memphis’s chance to win, 85% to 95%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  9. Q4, 13:20Stokes intercepted by Greil at the ASU23Q4, 13:20 · Memphis 35, Arkansas State 2435-24score after the play35-24score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  10. Q4, 8:13Owens intercepted by Foster at the Memphis 22returned 11 yardsQ4, 8:13 · Memphis 35, Arkansas State 2435-24score after the play35-24score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  11. Q4, 3:31Carter 24-yd TD runMemphis leads 42-24Q4, 3:31 · Memphis 42, Arkansas State 2442-24score after the play42-24score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  12. Q4, 2:22Owens intercepted by Smith at the Memphis 18returned 26 yardsQ4, 2:22 · Memphis 42, Arkansas State 24▲3%Memphis’s chance to win, 97% to 100%▲3%Memphis’s chance to win, 97% to 100%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

Memphis scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Arkansas State on 4 of its 12.

Memphis’s drives are teal, Arkansas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Arkansas State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 28InterceptionMemphis: Punt, from 93 yards out to 84PuntArkansas State: Punt, from 67 yards out to 44PuntMemphis: Interception, from 86 yards out to 88InterceptionArkansas State: Field goal, from 35 yards out to 30Field goalMemphis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Arkansas State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMemphis: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMemphis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3Memphis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 20InterceptionMemphis: Punt, from 79 yards out to 76PuntArkansas State: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownMemphis: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntMemphis: Interception, from 75 yards out to 52InterceptionQ4Arkansas State: Punt, from 77 yards out to 69PuntMemphis: Punt, from 81 yards out to 84PuntArkansas State: Interception, from 50 yards out to 38InterceptionMemphis: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 40InterceptionMemphis: End of game, from 56 yards out to 32End of game

From Arkansas State’s side

Arkansas State’s best moment: Owens 75-yd TD pass to Clay, Arkansas State goes ahead 17-14 (Q2 3:26). It lifted Arkansas State’s win chance by 25 points.

5 lead changes.

What it cost

Memphis’s chance to make the playoff rose from 3% to 4%.

Make the playoff

Arkansas State · lost0% → 0%
Memphis · won3% → ▲4%

Win the conference

Arkansas State · lost2% → 2%
Memphis · won13% → ▲14%13%▲ 14%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Memphis 42, Arkansas State 24

Memphis covered −10.5 by 7.5. The total, 66, went over 52.5.

Arkansas StateMemphisTotal yardsArkansas State 434Memphis 523434523Passing yardsArkansas State 325Memphis 188325188Rushing yardsArkansas State 109Memphis 335109335First downsArkansas State 22Memphis 242224TurnoversArkansas State 4Memphis 242Time of possessionArkansas State 30:33Memphis 29:2730:3329:27
Team totalsArkansas StateMemphis
Total yards434523
Passing21 of 30, 325 yds12 of 15, 188 yds
Rushing29 for 109 yds48 for 335 yds
First downs2224
Third down5 of 105 of 9
Fourth down0 of 00 of 0
Turnovers42
Penalties5 for 37 yds4 for 45 yds
Time of possession30:3329:27

Arkansas State leaders

  • Passing Trey Owens 21 of 30, 325 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT
  • Rushing Kenyon Clay 13 for 50 yds, 1 TD; Trey Owens 7 for 33 yds
  • Receiving Hunter Summers 5 for 98 yds; Kenyon Clay 2 for 85 yds, 1 TD

Memphis leaders

  • Passing Marcus Stokes 12 of 15, 188 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Jaylin Carter 19 for 183 yds, 4 TD; Manny Covey 15 for 103 yds
  • Receiving Brady Kluse 1 for 40 yds; Jermane Hayes 3 for 35 yds, 1 TD

Feels like 93° to 102° through the game

98° at kickoff · feels like 93° to 102° · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the east-northeast, gusts to 13

A feels-like 102° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 102°0120°
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 102°0120°

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Warmer than every one of the 77 other games played at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 81°, with about 7 in 10 games between 71° and 88°.

September game-day temperatures at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Memphis favoredArkansas State favored100%Win chanceMemphisRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphTemperature and feels likedegrees F85°110°feels like 93°air 90°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Memphis favoredArkansas State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Temperature and feels like · degrees F85°110°feels like 93°air 90°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 3:26 left7:11 p.m.
Arkansas State 17, Memphis 14 · Memphis 63% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the northeast, mostly across the field · 96°
Owens 75-yd TD pass to Clay, Arkansas State goes ahead 17-14

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Memphis International Airport, 4.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Arkansas State · 7-6

Rated 160th in our preseason ratings.

W 34-28 vs Missouri State #138 of 667

won by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 34-28 vs Missouri State. Chance to win started at 65%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

W 30-29 @ App State #151 of 667

won by 1 as a 1.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 30-29 at App State. Chance to win started at 43%, low 11%, high better than 99%.

L 30-34 vs Louisiana #115 of 667

lost by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

Arkansas State lost 30-34 vs Louisiana. Chance to win started at 66%, low under 1%, high 86%.

L 21-27 vs Southern Miss #67 of 667

lost by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 21-27 vs Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 29%, low under 1%, high 52%.

W 23-10 @ Troy #98 of 667

won by 13 as a 7.5-point underdog

Arkansas State won 23-10 at Troy. Chance to win started at 23%, low 21%, high 99%.

W 34-24 vs Georgia Southern #141 of 667

won by 10 as a 1.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 34-24 vs Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 58%, low 13%, high better than 99%.

W 15-14 @ South Alabama #109 of 667

won by 1 as an 8.5-point underdog

Arkansas State won 15-14 at South Alabama. Chance to win started at 22%, low 4%, high better than 99%.

W 31-30 vs Texas State #72 of 667

won by 1 as a 14.5-point underdog

Arkansas State won 31-30 vs Texas State. Chance to win started at 21%, low 6%, high better than 99%.

L 16-28 @ UL Monroe #120 of 667

lost by 12 as a 1.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 16-28 at UL Monroe. Chance to win started at 42%, low under 1%, high 79%.

L 21-28 @ Kennesaw State #164 of 667

lost by 7 as a 4.5-point favorite

Arkansas State lost 21-28 at Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 1%, high 57%.

L 16-24 vs Iowa StateTop 25 #43 of 667

lost by 8 as a 20.5-point underdog

Arkansas State lost 16-24 vs Iowa State. Chance to win started at 12%, low 1%, high 29%.

L 14-56 @ Arkansas #21 of 667

lost by 42 as a 24.5-point underdog

W 42-24 vs Southeast Missouri State #162 of 667

won by 18 as a 15.5-point favorite

Arkansas State won 42-24 vs Southeast Missouri State. Chance to win started at 89%, low 79%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Memphis · 8-5

Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 100th now.

Three straight losses.

L 7-31 @ NC State #37 of 667

lost by 24 as a 3.5-point underdog

Memphis lost 7-31 vs NC State. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 28%.

L 17-28 vs NavyTop 25 #73 of 667

lost by 11 as a 3.5-point favorite

Memphis lost 17-28 vs Navy. Chance to win started at 68%, low 4%, high 78%.

L 27-31 @ East Carolina #45 of 667

lost by 4 as a 2.5-point underdog

Memphis lost 27-31 at East Carolina. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 81%.

L 32-38 vs TulaneTop 25 #58 of 667

lost by 6 as a 3.5-point favorite

Memphis lost 32-38 vs Tulane. Chance to win started at 68%, low under 1%, high 68%.

W 38-14 @ Rice #163 of 667

won by 24 as a 13.5-point favorite

Memphis won 38-14 at Rice. Chance to win started at 76%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

W 34-31 vs South FloridaTop 25 #21 of 667

won by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

Memphis won 34-31 vs South Florida. Chance to win started at 48%, low 6%, high better than 99%.

L 24-31 @ UAB #137 of 667

lost by 7 as a 23.5-point favorite

Memphis lost 24-31 at UAB. Chance to win started at 91%, low 3%, high 93%.

W 45-7 vs Tulsa #152 of 667

won by 38 as a 21.5-point favorite

Memphis won 45-7 vs Tulsa. Chance to win started at 95%, low 93%, high better than 99%.

W 55-26 @ Florida Atlantic #97 of 667

won by 29 as a 13.5-point favorite

Memphis won 55-26 at Florida Atlantic. Chance to win started at 84%, low 45%, high better than 99%.

W 32-31 vs Arkansas #19 of 667

won by 1 as a 7.5-point underdog

Memphis won 32-31 vs Arkansas. Chance to win started at 42%, low 3%, high 89%.

W 28-7 @ Troy #89 of 667

won by 21 as a 4.5-point favorite

Memphis won 28-7 at Troy. Chance to win started at 58%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

W 38-16 @ Georgia State #102 of 667

won by 22 as a 15.5-point favorite

W 45-10 vs Chattanooga #174 of 667

won by 35 as a 30.5-point favorite

Memphis won 45-10 vs Chattanooga. Chance to win started at 97%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Memphis’s passing EPA against Arkansas State, 87 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Memphis’s passing EPA against Arkansas State’s defense

    87 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Memphis offense, 90th percentile · Arkansas State defense, 3rd

  2. Memphis’s success rate against Arkansas State’s defense

    64 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Memphis offense, 79th percentile · Arkansas State defense, 15th

  3. Memphis’s explosive plays against Arkansas State’s defense

    30 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Memphis offense, 82nd percentile · Arkansas State defense, 52nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Arkansas StateMemphis
EPA/play, offense
Arkansas State · 54Memphis · 69
EPA/play, defense
Arkansas State · 22Memphis · 53
Success rate, offense
Arkansas State · 81Memphis · 79
Success rate, defense
Arkansas State ·…Memphis · 68
Explosive-play rate, offense
Arkansas State ·…Memphis · 82
Explosive-play rate, defense
Arkansas State · 52Memphis · 13
Rush EPA, offense
Arkansas State · 61Memphis · 63
Rush EPA, defense
Arkansas State · 57Memphis · 21
Pass EPA, offense
Arkansas State · 42Memphis · 90
Pass EPA, defense
Arkansas State · 3Memphis · 79

The series

Memphis leads the series 20-8-3

31 meetings since 1953 · Memphis has won the last 5

Memphis wonArkansas State won1953: Arkansas State by 201975: Arkansas State by 191980: Memphis by 211982: Memphis by 121983: tie1984: Memphis by 151986: Arkansas State by 201987: tie1988: Memphis by 21989: Arkansas State by 41990: tie1991: Memphis by 101992: Memphis by 301993: Memphis by 421994: Memphis by 91997: Memphis by 291998: Memphis by 161999: Memphis by 52000: Memphis by 22003: Memphis by 222004: Memphis by 122006: Arkansas State by 32007: Arkansas State by 42008: Memphis by 122011: Arkansas State by 442012: Arkansas State by 52013: Memphis by 242020: Memphis by 132021: Memphis by 52022: Memphis by 122023: Memphis by 3419532023
  • 2023Memphis 37-3Memphis won 37-3 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 93%, low 87%, high better than 99%.
  • 2022Memphis 44-32Memphis won 44-32 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 87%, low 24%, high better than 99%.
  • 2021Memphis 55-50Memphis won 55-50 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 66%, low 65%, high better than 99%.
  • 2020Memphis 37-24Memphis won 37-24 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 89%, low 72%, high 99%.
  • 2013Memphis 31-7

Each line is Memphis’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Memphis fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (88th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 76% · Line 80%Memphis fans · 88thArkansas State fans · 91stArkansas StateMemphis

Memphis favored by 10.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Memphis by 10.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 98° at kickoff.

Arkansas State at Memphis · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis

  • 98°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 56weather score, Rough
  • 2ndbest of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 66, against 56 at 6 pm.

  • 11 am: 39, Harsh
  • noon: 39, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 38, Harsh
  • 3:15 pm: 39, Harsh
  • 4 pm: 40, Harsh
  • 6 pm: 56, Rough (this game)
  • 7 pm: 66, Rough

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Memphis is worth +3.2 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 31st percentile.

81% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (38-9 home, 24-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.8 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 64 miles to get here.

Where next