ACC NC State

Interim head coach Todd Goebbel · since Oct 24 · replaced Dave Doeren

Record4-42-3 ACC · T-9th
Bowl2 wins to goto bowl eligibility
Nextvs DukeSat Nov 7 · 12:30 pm ET · The CW

The rest of the season

4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: North Carolina 41%

Win out 7% · expect 2.1 of 4 more wins

NC State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Duke 60%, Syracuse 65%, Florida State 46%, North Carolina 41%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 84% to 76%, peaking at 89% before a game

84%80%L84%W89%W76%L59%L76%W

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 9th in the ACC · 2-3 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing CJ Bailey 1,955 · Rushing Jayden Scott 358 · Receiving Keenan Jackson 456 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#63 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #74 (-0.9) · FPI #66
The marketDuke by 4.5Betting line vs Duke · our model 60% NC State

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow NC State:athletics siteACCXYouTube

Schedule and results

NC State · 2026 schedule and results4-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 54% · 1 opponent played so far is in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #44 to #69
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Aug 29#44#56+4✗ −22@VirginiaL 8-34 119NC State lost 8-34 at Virginia. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 35%.0-10-1Pass Bailey 84 · Rush Bailey 33 · Rec Ploog 25
2Sep 11#46#185−33.5✓ +39.5RichmondW 73-0 118NC State won 73-0 vs Richmond. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.1-10-1Pass Bailey 281 · Rush Scott 128 · Rec Jackson 123
3Sep 19#47#44+3✗ −1@VanderbiltL 31-35 1371-20-1Pass Bailey 275 · Rush Scott 50 · Rec Jackson 102
4Sep 26#37#93−12.5✗ −2.5App StateW 41-31 140NC State won 41-31 vs App State. Chance to win started at 86%, low 73%, high better than 99%.2-20-1Pass Bailey 253 · Rush Scott 148 · Rec Jackson 64
5Oct 3#41#47+5.5✓ +8.5LouisvilleW 31-28 139NC State won 31-28 vs Louisville. Chance to win started at 45%, low 34%, high 98%.3-21-1Pass Bailey 373 · Rush Gause 69 · Rec Trader 92
6Oct 10#45#58+4✗ −20Wake ForestL 14-38 133NC State lost 14-38 vs Wake Forest. Chance to win started at 43%, low under 1%, high 78%.3-31-2Pass Bailey 241 · Rush Gause 11 · Rec Jackson 61
7Bye week
8Oct 23#63#133−7.5✗ −10.5@StanfordL 28-31 134NC State lost 28-31 at Stanford. Chance to win started at 60%, low under 1%, high 62%.3-41-3Pass Bailey 256 · Rush Bailey 59 · Rec Desinor 79
9Oct 31#69#132−9.5✓ +11.5CaliforniaW 31-10 137NC State won 31-10 vs California. Chance to win started at 84%, low 70%, high better than 99%.4-42-3Pass Bailey 192 · Rush Gause 104 · Rec Robinson 76
10Nov 7#66#41+4.5Duke12:30 pm ET · The CW60% to win
11Nov 14#64#101Syracusetime TBA · ACC Network65% to win
12Nov 21@Florida Statetime TBA46% to win
13Nov 28−1.5@North Carolinatime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for NC State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for NC State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31CaliforniaW 31-10327128:31+0.10843.8%1.00
Oct 23@StanfordL 28-31381029:59+0.33150.0%1.24One-score loss
Oct 10Wake ForestL 14-38258128:03-0.04839.7%1.16
Oct 3LouisvilleW 31-28493137:20+0.26339.5%1.42One-score win
Sep 26App StateW 41-31459136:23+0.26953.2%1.09
Sep 19@VanderbiltL 31-35446335:49+0.03438.8%1.35Defense's roughest night
Sep 11RichmondW 73-0734137:43+0.75867.6%1.44Season-high EPA/play
Aug 29@VirginiaL 8-34168221:57-0.14431.4%0.53Season-low EPA/play
Season average (8 games)4081.2+0.19645.5%1.15

NC State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line6.5 winsover +115
Offense strongMethodical, ball-controlDefense soft

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 6.5▼1 since Sep 9
ACC title#11 in market+8,400

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

W 31-10 vs California

NC State fans
r/CFB
“Who would've thought that firing DJ Eliot would lead to by far our best defensive game of the season.”
4d ago
r/CFB
“So Dave leaves and the players finally start "executing", I wonder if there is a correlation here, not sure, but I've seen enough, give Goebbel a life time…”
4d ago
California fans on NC State
r/CFB
“Gotta love the nc state doomers here. As if cal isn’t looking equally if not worse”
4d ago

L 28-31 at Stanford

NC State fans
r/CFB
“Bruh it’s like watching a middle school team play the Harlem globe trotters”
1w ago
r/CFB
“There's the weekly tipped pass from a 6ft 7 qb”
1w ago
Stanford fans on NC State
r/CFB
“Attendance is truly awful tonight - like even by Stanford standards this is really really bad, most of our turnouts depend pretty heavily on opposing fanbases…”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 28Carolina-Stateat North Carolina · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

NC State has won three of its last five.

6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.

Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
Everybody was level-headed in that locker room and I’m so thankful to have a team that’s like that
Bailey · Technicianthe day after NC State's 2026 game against California
1 storyline developing

What NC State’s season is really about

The open questionwhere does it go from here?

Market swing2026-06-18new

Doeren's 8-5 season feels like a step back for a program that thrives on QB production and fan passion, now facing a solo market dip.

What happenedNC State win total fell from 7.5 to 6.5 (−1 win) between May 2026 and Jun 2026.
The contextwin total down 1.0

Statusdeveloping

How past storylines here turned out

Died downNC State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downNC State's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · NC State · 2026

NC State’s most likely regular season is 6-6. 88% of outcomes land from 5-7 to 7-5.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

4 wins 4%; 5 wins 22%; 6 wins 38%; 7 wins 28%; 8 wins 7%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor6-7A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Following now · NC State · Market

Vegas shaved a win off NC State’s total, and the reason hasn’t been reported.

NC State win total fell from 7.5 to 6.5 (−1 win) between May 2026 and Jun 2026. The win total is down 1.0. The market moved and the fan conversation hasn't caught up. Little discussion of a line move usually means the information arrived before the coverage did. Discussion is thin, and the market moved faster than the reaction.

upbeat so far, only a few posts doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder
Believers3 upbeat posts
Fans: 15% volume · negative overall
Developing1 new this week
4 days agoRaul Aguirre Jr.: 16 tackles · 2 TFL vs California
last weekDoeren calls out NIL resources
2 weeks agoNC State updates depth chart
2 weeks agoWin total: 7.5 to 6.5 (down 1)
2 weeks agoACC title odds: +2600 to +30000 (the market’s chance is down 3.4 points)
Our read
Doeren's 8-5 season feels like a step back for a program that thrives on QB production and fan passion, now facing a solo market dip.
Source of record: NC State win total fell from 7.5 to 6.5 (−1 win) between May 2026 and Jun 2026 — win total down 1.0 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction.
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards loud
📣Believers3 bullish/market items making the case that it's working.›

The 'market knows something fans don't' read: when odds move, it's on information.

“NC State football news: Russell Wilson interviews for vacant HC position amid Philip Rivers buzz”
Yahoo Sports · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Russell Wilson Interviews for NC State HC Job, Latest Rumors on NFL Icon Amid Philip Rivers Buzz”
Bleacher Report · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Russell Wilson reportedly joins Philip Rivers in interviewing for NC State head coaching vacancy”
Yahoo Sports · Nov 4 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent; the coverage runs one way.›

The 'markets overcorrect' counter: lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.

Nothing in our corpus yet.

💬The boards15% of recent board volume, a large share for one event. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (54%).›

This event was in 689 of 4505 board posts (15%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.

"I’m waiting on an admissions decision from state for the spring, and I keep seeing tons of posts on TikTok and hearing things from people that have experienced the campus life at n"
r/NCSU ~ fan take
"So…this was a curveball of a notification to go across everyone’s phone. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, former NC State All-ACC quarterback Russell Wilson int"
Pack Insider ~ fan take

Board health this week (91 posts): 18% positive · 47% neutral · 35% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 58 combined points, shootouts

What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4

Game feel58shootoutscombined pts / game4th highest-scoring of 17 in the ACC
Heart rate1-2some dramain one-score games (3 of 8)8th most one-score games of 17 in the ACC
Margin+6.2competitiveavg scoring margin8th best margin of 17 in the ACC
Tempo69average paceoffensive plays / game6th fastest of 17 in the ACC
Big plays1.15grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)15th most explosive of 17 in the ACC
Home crowd56,122avg attendance5th biggest crowds of 17 in the ACC

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

NC State is the program that put Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Mike Glennon through the same building — a quarterback factory whose ceiling has always been the ACC's upper-middle, never the top.

Title DroughtSince 1979 · 47 yrs

Fans are tired of being the forgotten school on Tobacco Road — the one nobody mentions when the cameras find Carolina blue and Duke's gym, even after producing more starting NFL quarterbacks than…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

NC State · Game-day weather

Typical at Carter-Finley Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 88

  • noon: 89, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

NC State is the program with the loudest fanbase on Tobacco Road and the football team that produced Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, and Mike Glennon at the same school.

Offense: StrongStyle: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Soft
Open questionsOpen: Can NC State bounce back after this embarrassing loss?

Active arcs

Hot
nc state-virginia football game moves back to charlottesville
Can NC State bounce back after this embarrassing loss?
Cooling
Colt Hauser, son of Yellowstone star, commits to NC State
How will Colt Hauser's commitment impact NC State's 2027 offensive line?
Cooling
Why 3-star DL Amir Moore committed to NC State: 'Something just felt special…
How will these new receivers impact NC State's future offense?
Read the NC State story →

Roster and recruiting

Roster60% of production back, talent #32

Roster reload: NC State

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production60%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#32 nationally247 composite 757.1
Portal Additions20Primary repair: TE
Portal Losses22Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2), 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#49Development class
WRin 5 - Joshisa Trader3.80out 4 - Terrell Anderson4.50Even
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receivermoves the chains on third down
Former four-star
LBin 2 - Popo Aguirre3.90out 5 - Joshua Ofor3.60Starter Risk
current room: 223 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 2 - Jimarion McCrimon3.60out 3 - Jacarrius Peak4.50Downgrade
Sin 1 - King Mack3.70out 3 - Daemon Fagan4.28Starter Risk
current room: 193 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickelmoves between deep coverage and the slot
Third program
CBin 2 - Ondre Evans3.70out 1 - Jivan Baly3.50Upgrade
current room: 182 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 1 - Katron Evans3.60out 2 - Justin Terrell3.50Downgrade
current room: 295 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Nose Anchorcontrols the point of attack and doesn't move
Next man up
TE · departedJustin JolyRd 5, Pk 12
NowIan Flynt3★ · FR
Next man up
Full roster (128 players)
UNKTyran Warren
CBAsaad Brown Jr., Brian Nelson II, Caden Gordon, Cam Strong, DJ Dillard, Dy'Lan Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, Jackson Vick, Jamel Johnson, Jaren Sensabaugh, Jordan Jackson, Jordyn Best, Michael Tate
DBOndre Evans, Ty White
DEChase Bond, JJ Ferguson Jr., Joseph Adedire
DLAJ Prim, Adrian Farrow, Josiah Victor, Steven Stokes III
DTColby Cronk, Damaad Lewis, Fabian Kimbrough, Isaiah Shirley
KKanoah Vinesett
LBAJ Richardson, Bailey Benson, Caleb Gordon, DaKaari Nelson, David Collins, Elijah Satchell, Harvey Dyson III, Hunter Jackson, Isaac Peters, Jackson Mastor, Jordan Moreta, Josh Warren Jr., Kevon Carter, Koby Sarkodie, LaCorian Hodge, Lawrence Brown Jr., Logan Foust, Nathan Huffman, Raul Aguirre Jr., Ryan Klimp, Sterling Dixon, Zane Williams, Ziggy Moore
LSAiden Arias, Taylon Tranel
OLCarmelo McKenzie, Daniel Cruz, Henri Paris, Jimarion McCrimon, Joseph Castaneda, Kage Payne, Katron Evans, Keoni Riley, Matthew Clay, Michael Gibbs, Omarian Abraham, Rico Jackson, Rylan Vann, Spike Sowells, TK Whitset, Teague Andersen, Tre Aiken, Trent Mitchell, Yousef Mugharbil
OTBrady Sakowitz, Brody Smith, Kamen Smith
PCristian Harthan, Jackson Waller
PKDrew Lovelace, Nick Konieczynski
QBCJ Bailey, Cole Wilson, Hudson Wilharm, Parker Thompson, Tad Hudson, Will Wilson
RBDarius Johnson, Davion Gause, Deandre Desinor, Dylan McCoy, Isiah Jones, Jayden Scott, Jonathan Paylor, Noah Moss, RJ Boyd
SBrody Barnhardt, Chino Aguirre, Hampton Roderick, King Mack, Pluto Surratt, Ronnie Royal III, Tristan Clapp, Tristan Teasdell, Tristen Hill
TEGus Ritchey, Hunter Provience, Ian Flynt, Preston Douglas, Stephen Brown, Tex Vaughn, Vander Ploog
WRAddison Carlson, Aiden Smalls, Amiri Acker, Ashton Locklear, Cameron Cornthwaite, Chance Robinson, Davion Dozier, Ethan Dowdy, Jai Richburg, Jason Schutt, Je'rel Bolder, Joshisa Trader, Keenan Jackson, Landon Thompson, Sam Dodd, Teddy Hoffmann, Tyreek Copper, Victor Snow
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★★☆
Gunner Rivers
QB · Fairhope, AL
#139 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] NC State Defeats Memphis 31-7
527 upvotes · Dec 2025
[Postgame Thread] NC State Defeats Appalachian State 41-31
119 upvotes · Sep 2026
[Game Thread] NC State vs. Memphis (2:30 PM ET)
81 upvotes · Dec 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 27% of FBS programs
→

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

27th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is a bit more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
27th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
6.5
Sportsbook win total
(42nd among FBS)
Market 15pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
RivalsRival pulse: U-NC State North Carolina uneasy

Rival pulse

East Carolina
Very bullish
+46
ECU-NC State
North Carolina
Uneasy
-15
Carolina-State

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow NC State

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site