Junior quarterback for NC State. 2026: 2 games with a box-score line.
6′6″ · 213 lb · Miami, FL · Chaminade-Madonna
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026
1 TD · 1 INT · 9.1 per attempt
2 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 9 car · 83 yds · 3 TD -- top 1% rushing TDs game. -- Best game: 281 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds, vs Richmond
Swing playSwung NC State from 23% to 46% to win.NC State at Pittsburgh · 53-34
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
3 quarterback for NC State. 2026: 2 games with a box-score line.
Aura™ · Him Watch
-17aura tax
83rd pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=96
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
The Miami defense dominated from start to finish, Jakobe Thomas picked off 2 passes- taking one back 60 yards to the house, Carson Beck tossed 3 touchdown passes- 2 to freshman Malachi Toney, fellow frosh Girard Pringle Jr. ran for over…
Also worth knowing:
“CJ Bailey please give us some eye bleach to wash away that TCU QB performance”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
They remain in the top-half of the conference thanks to do-it-all quarterback CJ Bailey and the league’s best schedule draw.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 28, 2026 · via CFB
CJ Bailey
Keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Third year in the NC State quarterback room, same address the whole way. His first career honor landed in 2024: ACC Rookie Player of the Week. The receipt on tape: 281 pass yds, 25 rush yds against Richmond, Week 2, 2026.
365 PASS YDS · 1 PASS TD · 58 RUSH YDS
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
His career
He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.
Career arc
Coaching lineage · 2024–2026
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Dave Doeren.
Season context · Team result + system
3 seasons under Dave Doeren — 15-13 over that span.
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score percentiles
Elite: yards / att (92nd percentile). Concern: pass yards (0th percentile).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Splits
Per-game splits
Through 2 games: 182 YDS/g, 0.5 TD/g, 10.1 YPA, 0.5 INT/g — splits start at 3 games.
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dave Doeren
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
In the mix for All-ACC
Based on 2025: #5 of 17 ACC QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2026
W 73–0
vs Richmond
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 2 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 8-34@ Virginia | 12/23 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 3.7 | 39.5 | |
| Wk 2 | W 73-0vs Richmond | 13/17 | 281 | 1 | 0 | 16.5 | 92.0 | Season-high 281 yds |
| Total | 25/40 | 365 | 1 | 1 | 10.1 | 65.8 |
Play style
Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.
CFB Index positional classification
2026 Outlook
NC State
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · NC State
Returning around him
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
NC State · Last season: 8-5 · Talent rank #32 · 2026 recruiting class #49
Player DNA
Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to CJ Bailey’s 2024 season.
Differs from CJ on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Eli Peters’s path through Toledo.
Matches Eli on
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Nico Iamaleava's sophomore season at Tennessee (2024).
Matches Nico on
Differs from Nico on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #185 this season.
AS A SOPHOMORE (2025): • Has added 20 lbs. since arriving on campus. AS A FRESHMAN (2024): • One of the top freshman performers in school history, he started nine games. • Was called into action earlier than expected with injuries to Grayson McCall. • Ranked eighth in the ACC in total offense tou...