CFB Zeitgeist Score
38
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 92nd percentile.
Ashton Daniels
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
797 PASS YDS · 3 PASS TD · 280 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Florida State
2025Auburn
2026Florida State
QB · AUBURN · SEC
Ashton Daniels
- 4
- #12
- 6-2 | 219 lb
- Buford, GA
Heisman Heat
#164
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
In Their Words
320 windows · 2025 fan posts
ashton×122.9stanford×69.0daniels×29.0fsu×21.5seriously×96.6started×22.3rusher×17.0auburn×6.0
“[247] QB Ashton Daniels officially commits to FSU”
reddit/fsusports · fan post, verbatim
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
4 seasons on the ladder
2022
Stanford · QB
—
2023
Stanford · QB
—
★
2024
Stanford · QB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
2025
Auburn · QB
—
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2022–2025+1944%
Up 1944% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8600 | No. 994 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Auburn -> Florida State | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
| 2025 | Stanford -> Auburn | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8600
#994 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Ashton Daniels
Fan sentiment · Season 2025 conversation window
Belief Meter
54
Quietly Bullish
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=47
- Rivals · n=15
- National · n=6
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Ashton Daniels
Obsession score 10
Rival mentions 15
Weeks on radar 3
Peak moment Week 0 · 12 mentions
Grudging respect 27% Neutral 66% Mockery 7%
2025 Signature · 2025 season
QB rushing weighted-EPA
+0.340
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 50 carries
National rank #20 of 46
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 50 carries 58th
Why it matters
#20 of 46 P4 + Notre Dame QBs among scrambling QBs by rushing weighted-EPA — +0.340 EPA per run on 54 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.340 (58th)
MODERATE · n=54 cohort 46
- Also strong
- ESPN QBR (season average)#45 / 92
- Third-down snap share#1 / 93
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 4g
797Pass yards
3Pass TDs
2INT
Per game
199.2Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
2,590Pass yards
10Pass TDs
6INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 797): needs 244.8/game over remaining 9.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 797): needs 355.9/game over remaining 9.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 3): needs 2.4/game over remaining 9.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 3): needs 3/game over remaining 9.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 3): needs 3.6/game over remaining 9.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Ashton Daniels's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Auburn, he has 797 passing yards and 3 touchdown passes, but he also adds 280 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
68 60th
ATT
119 62nd
CMP%
57.1% 33rd
Y/A
6.7 45th
Passing Production
YDS
797 61st
TD
3 57th
INT
2 52nd
Rushing
CAR
63 76th
YDS
280 84th
YPC
4.4 71st
TD
2 73rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 4 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 9 | W 33-24@ Arkansas | 6/8 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 9.6 | 56.6 | |
| Wk 10 | L 3-10vs Kentucky | 13/28 | 108 | 0 | 1 | 3.9 | 44.0 | |
| Wk 11 | L 38-45@ Vanderbilt | 31/44 | 353 | 2 | 0 | 8.0 | 79.0 | Season-high 353 yds |
| Wk 14 | L 20-27vs Alabama | 18/39 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 6.6 | 72.4 | |
| Total | 68/119 | 797 | 3 | 2 | 7.0 | 63.0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Stanford3-9HC: David Shaw · Balanced
2023Stanford3-9HC: Troy Taylor · Balanced
2024Stanford3-9HC: Troy Taylor · Run-leaning
2025Auburn5-7HC: Hugh Freeze · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 797 | #151/382 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 3 | #178/407 | 57th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 68 | #155/383 | 60th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 57.1% | #256/383 | 33rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.7 | #210/382 | 45th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 280 | #65/408 | 84th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.23 | #127/200 | 37th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 126 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 70.1% | #1/428 | 100th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 119 | #154/407 | 62nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 2 | #195/407 | 52nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 63 | #97/408 | 76th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 26 | #127/391 | 68th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.4 | #120/407 | 71st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 2 | #113/408 | 73rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 94.2% | #30/428 | 93rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 86.0% | #1/428 | 100th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 79.0% | #5/428 | 99th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 70.4% | #3/428 | 100th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 65.3% | #1/428 | 100th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 61.4% | #2/428 | 100th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 45.6% | #1/428 | 100th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.34 | #28/140 | 81st pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 54 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/258 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 4 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 184 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 1.0 |
| Road2g | 215 | 1.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins1g | 77.0 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 0.0 |
| Losses3g | 240 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 0.7 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 8+4g | 199 | 0.8 | 7.0 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
38Mid-pack
Elite: interceptions (92nd). Strength: fumbles lost (91st). Concern: pass tds (6th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.23Below (<p25) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.34Mid (p50–p75) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Ashton DanielsAuburnAvery JohnsonKansas State· 64% simNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 64% simCade KlubnikClemson· 58% sim
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Yards / att
Completion %
Pass yards
Pass TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Scrambler
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ashton Daniels’s 2023 season.
Ashton Daniels
71%match
#2
Aveon Smith
71%
#3
Jordon Brookshire
70%
#4
Robby Ashford
70%
#5
Hunter Watson
68%
Matches Ashton on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Completion %
INT rate
Differs from Ashton on
Rush usage (higher)
Rush yards / carry (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Mark Gronowski’s path through Iowa.
Mark Gronowski
93%match
#2
Evan Simon
87%
#3
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
87%
#4
Max Cutforth
84%
#5
Tony Muskett
84%
Matches Mark on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Aveon Smith's senior season at Miami (OH) (2023).
Aveon Smith
67%match
#2
Robby Ashford
64%
#3
Brennan Armstrong
All-ACC
62%
#4
Bryson Barnes
All-Mountain West
54%
#5
Kyron Drones
54%
Matches Aveon on
Yards / attempt
Height
Differs from Aveon on
Rush usage (lower)
Completion % (higher)
Weight (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Hugh Freeze
Pass share
44.7%
360 pass / 445 run
Plays / game
67.1
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
13.3%
308 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Cadillac Williams
Auburn
2023era →
Hugh Freeze
Auburn
2024
Hugh Freeze
Auburn
2025
Hugh Freeze
Auburn
Coaching transition mid-career: Cadillac Williams → Hugh Freeze. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownBuford, GA
Height6'2"
Weight219 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey12
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamAuburn
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2024)
All-ACC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | All-ACC | all_conference | Stanford | ACC | -- |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.