Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Hot seat: no longer the head coach · left November 1.
He left the job on November 1; Rick Stockstill is the interim head coach. How every job is measured.
Poach watch
Not rated
He no longer holds this job, so there is no number for him here.
Fans
What fans are saying
job securityWidely held among fans
fans believe Norvell is underperforming as head coach
Even if some how FSU goes 8-4, 7-5. I still don't want Norvell back.
Ya,know I'm glad FSU won Ya,know but Norvell still has to go Ya,know. I have 0 faith in this man Ya,know FSU should fire him after his next loss Ya,know.
Florida State · Based on 3 comments from 3 posters across 3 threads · Oct 4, 2026–Oct 10, 2026 · via Florida State Football - Warchant TV
Many stories about him this week
32nd of 104 FBS head coaches · from several outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Press conference and quotesDozens of storiesfadingFlorida State coach Mike Norvell rips ACC officials, says holding call in OT was 'an absolute joke'r/fsusports
Job security talkDozens of storiesfading
Game previewDozens of stories
Hot seatDozens of storiesfadingColumn: As pressure builds, Mike Norvell keeps retreating further into his shell of reduced accessr/fsusports
LossMany storiesfading
Quarterback and depth chartMany stories
What was said at each stop
Stories we tracked, by school.
Florida StateDozens of stories2020 to now
Most about: press conference and quotes, job security talk, game preview.
Most about: coaching staff, press conference and quotes.
Source: Florida State is hiring Auburn OC Kenny Dillingham as the offensive coordinator. He worked under Mike Norvell at Memphis and Arizona State is considered one of the country's rising OC stars.Dec 9
Mike Norvell Signing Day Press Conference: December 18Dec 18
Texas A&M to hire Florida State's T.J. Rushing to fill vacancy as Aggie secondary coach. Former Memphis assistant recently followed Mike Norvell to Tallahassee.Jan 20
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2019). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-1 against his rivals at Memphis. Nobody he faced three or more times there has a winning record against him.
’16 L · blew a 7-pt lead’17 W · erased a 3-pt deficit’18 L · blew a 12-pt lead’19 W · erased a 13-pt deficit
covered the spread
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
1-2 33.3%ATS —
National Program
12-8 60.0%ATS 10-9-1 20 of 20
Regional Program
21-5 80.8%ATS 16-10 26 of 26
Signature games
6-5 vs. AP top 25 · 0-2 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’16’17’18’19
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WMI
Ole Miss · 2019
15-10
RivalQuality opponent
WCI
Cincinnati · 2019
29-24
Quality opponentConference title game
WHO
Houston · 2018
52-31
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LMI
Ole Miss · 2016
28-48
Rival
LWK
Western Kentucky · 2016
31-51
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUC
UCF · 2018
41-56
Conference title game
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
5-7 against his rivals at Florida State. Winless in 4 tries against Dave Doeren.
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0-1 0.0%ATS —
Blue Blood
4-6 40.0%ATS 6-4 10 of 10
Power Program
8-12 40.0%ATS 8-12 20 of 20
National Program
13-18 41.9%ATS 13-17-1 31 of 31
Regional Program
10-1 90.9%ATS 7-4 11 of 11
Signature games
5-13 vs. AP top 25 · 3-8 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WMI
Miami · 2022
45-3
RivalQuality opponent
WOU
Oklahoma · 2022
35-32
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WAL
Alabama · 2025
31-17
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LUG
Georgia · 2023
3-63
Bowl/CFP stakes
LMI
Miami · 2020
10-52
Rival
LMI
Miami · 2024
14-36
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
6-8 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Dave Doeren.
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0-1 0.0%ATS —
Blue Blood
4-6 40.0%ATS 6-4 10 of 10
Power Program
9-14 39.1%ATS 9-14 23 of 23
National Program
25-26 49.0%ATS 23-26-2 51 of 51
Regional Program
31-6 83.8%ATS 23-14 37 of 37
Signature games
11-18 vs. AP top 25 · 3-10 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’16’17’18’19’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WMI
Miami · 2022
45-3
RivalQuality opponent
WOU
Oklahoma · 2022
35-32
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WAL
Alabama · 2025
31-17
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LUG
Georgia · 2023
3-63
Bowl/CFP stakes
LMI
Miami · 2020
10-52
Rival
LMI
Miami · 2024
14-36
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Ran more than the situation called for under Malzahn.
4,710 run and pass snaps at Florida State, 2020–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
Memphis11.6pt#182 of 449 · a typical amount
Florida State8.3pt#287 of 449 · a typical amount
Building the roster
Six numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His 6 ranked Florida State classes of his own have averaged #18 nationally — best #12, worst #22.
MEMemphis
2018
#81
His class
2019
#67
His class
FSFlorida State
2020
#22
Transition
2021
#22
His class
2022
#20
His class
2023
#19
His class
2024
#12
His class
2025
#19
His class
2026
#16
His class
Across every program: 8 ranked classes of his own, averaging #32 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
MEMemphis→FSFlorida State2020
No confirmed followers on this move. This move predates this database’s 2021 transfer-portal tracking floor, so real followers may be undercounted here.
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
100%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 109 of 109 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 20% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
This tenure spans the 2021 transfer-portal tracking floor: seasons before 2021 structurally cannot be classified portal-vs-not (they land in 'unknown' below), so the portal-share figure understates how many pre-2021 arrivals might have been transfers under the pre-portal-tracking transfer rules.
New players each season, 2022–2026
27% of his 257 new players since 2022 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 23%). His share was 24% in 2022 and 27% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 1 and worse than most in 1 of the 5 seasons graded. our read
202212 of 51Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season
202310 of 46Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season
202412 of 50Portal grade: better than most — #17 of 134 FBS programs that season
202518 of 48Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season
202617 of 62Portal grade: worse than most — #117 of 136 FBS programs that season
Came through the portalNon-portal arrivalsFBS-wide share that season
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
+5 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his Florida State rosters have averaged 5 lb heavier than the FBS average (2020–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, Florida State’s line averaged 11 lb heavier than the FBS average.
Memphis2016–2019−4 lb
Florida State2020–2026+5 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
FLTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 78 of 153 signees (51%) across his 2020–2026 tenure, drawn from 20 states in all. Next: GA (27).
Where his signees came from, 2020–2026 (153 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
73% of his signees come from FL and its 2 border states (GA 27, AL 6).
Off this map: 11 signees to the west (TX 6, CA 3, others) and 7 to the north (MD 2, CT, others).
By region
South
145
West
4
Midwest
2
Northeast
1
Roster distance from campus (Doak Campbell Stadium, FL)
median hometown distance
255 mi
within 100 mi
10%
within 500 mi
80%
beyond 1,000 mi
6%
105 of 109 roster players with a known hometown (96% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
19Drafted
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 13 of them himself; 6 arrived under Willie Taggart (3), Jimbo Fisher (3). 2 went in the first round.
His recruits 13Inherited 619 roster-verified · 0 estimated
Most recent picks first
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R4.03
Darrell Jackson Jr.
Defensive Tackle
New York Jets
2025
R3.09
Azareye'h Thomas
Cornerback
New York Jets
2025
R4.35
Joshua Farmer
Defensive Tackle
New England Patriots
2024
R1.19
Jared Verse
Defensive Edge
Los Angeles Rams
2024
R2.01
Keon Coleman
Wide Receiver
Buffalo Bills
2024
R2.07
Braden Fiske
Defensive Tackle
Los Angeles Rams
2024
R2.32
Renardo Green
Cornerback
San Francisco 49ers
recruited under Willie Taggart
2024
R3.02
Trey Benson
Running Back
Arizona Cardinals
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2024
R3.33
Jarrian Jones
Cornerback
Jacksonville Jaguars
2024
R5.36
Jordan Travis
Quarterback
New York Jets
recruited under Willie Taggart
2024
R6.09
Johnny Wilson
Wide Receiver
Philadelphia Eagles
2024
R7.11
Jaheim Bell
Tight End
New England Patriots
2024
R7.31
Tatum Bethune
Linebacker
San Francisco 49ers
2023
R5.11
Jammie Robinson
Safety
Carolina Panthers
2022
R1.26
Jermaine Johnson II
Defensive End
New York Jets
2021
R2.15
Asante Samuel Jr.
Cornerback
Los Angeles Chargers
recruited under Willie Taggart
2021
R4.29
Janarius Robinson
Defensive End
Minnesota Vikings
recruited under Jimbo Fisher
2021
R4.39
Joshua Kaindoh
Defensive End
Kansas City Chiefs
recruited under Jimbo Fisher
2021
R6.02
Hamsah Nasirildeen
Safety
New York Jets
recruited under Jimbo Fisher
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Mike Norvell inherited Florida State at Blue Blood and saw it slip to Power Program II.
−10.4 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 5% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)
5th-best Florida State tenure of 10 by the numbers.
Followed Willie Taggart (2018–2019).
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Trend
Record & result
Record
3-6
5-7
10-3
13-1
2-10
5-7
3-5
Postseason
—
—
W bowl
L bowl
—
—
—
Coordinators
OC
Kenny Dillingham
Kenny Dillingham
Alex Atkins
Alex Atkins
Alex Atkins
Gus Malzahn
Tim Harris Jr.
DC
Adam Fuller
Adam Fuller
Adam Fuller / Randy Shannon
Adam Fuller / Randy Shannon
Adam Fuller / Randy Shannon
Tony White
Tony White
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
56
53
94
45
8
86
69
Defense
23
83
66
86
28
46
22
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
42.2
44.4
39.8
44.5
44.1
36.1
38.9
Red-zone pass%
33.3
42.7
32.7
43.7
40.3
29.7
29.9
4th-down go%opp. territory
46.4
34.4
38.5
42.1
50.0
47.5
52.4
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
-5.8 pts
#133 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
-6.0 pts
#133 of 208 · middle half
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 249 lbs
across 80 of 97 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+9.0 lbs
#24 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Jr
#51 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.4★
rated arrivals only
Top states: FL (28), GA (12), CA (5), LA (4), PA (3)
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
64.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
66.0
position-weighted
Net
-1.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: DJ Uiagalelei (QB) from Oregon State
Biggest loss: Luke Kromenhoek (QB) to Mississippi State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Kenny Dillingham → Alex Atkins · 2022The system held
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 43.3% → 42.2% (-1.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 74% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Alex Atkins → Gus Malzahn · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 44.1% → 36.1% (-8.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 13% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Gus Malzahn → Tim Harris Jr. · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 36.1% → 38.9% (+2.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 40% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Adam Fuller → Adam Fuller / Randy Shannon (co) · 2022The defense improved
2-season window either side.
DC: Adam Fuller / Randy Shannon (co) → Tony White · 2025The defense slipped
2-season window either side.
Postseason detail2022: Beat Oklahoma 35-32 Cheez-It Bowl2023: Lost to Georgia 3-63 Capital One Orange Bowl
Mike Norvell raised Memphis from Regional Program II to National Program II.
+13.2 pts over 4 seasons · top 3% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
6th-best Memphis tenure of 15 by the numbers.
Followed Justin Fuente (2012–2015) · succeeded by Ryan Silverfield (2020–2025).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
swipe to see every season
Season
2016
2017
2018
2019
Trend
Record & result
Record
8-5
10-3
8-6
12-1
Postseason
L bowl
L bowl
L bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
Chip Long
Darrell Dickey
Kenny Dillingham
Kevin Johns
DC
Chris Ball
Chris Ball
Chris Ball
Adam Fuller
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
77
97
90
94
Defense
28
31
39
46
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
49.6
47.7
30.8
41.9
Red-zone pass%
44.4
55.3
32.6
36.6
4th-down go%opp. territory
27.3
35.1
30.6
39.0
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+41.2 pts
#4 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
-12.6 pts
#158 of 208 · bottom quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Chip Long → Darrell Dickey · 2017
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 49.6% → 47.7% (-1.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 88% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Darrell Dickey → Kenny Dillingham · 2018
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.7% → 30.8% (-17.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 39% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Kenny Dillingham → Kevin Johns · 2019
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 30.8% → 41.9% (+11.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 70% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Chris Ball → Adam Fuller · 2019
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2016: Lost to Western Kentucky 31-51 Boca Raton Bowl2017: Lost to Iowa State 20-21 Bowl2018: Lost to Wake Forest 34-37 Jared Birmingham Bowl
8 NFL Draft picks: Jake Elliott (2017), Anthony Miller (2018), Genard Avery (2018), Darrell Henderson (2019), Tony Pollard (2019), Antonio Gibson (2020), Chris Claybrooks (2020), Dustin Woodard (2020)